As the Baltimore Orioles disappointing 2015 season comes to an end, it allows us to look back on an entire year and take a look at who could win the award for Most Valuable Oriole. Of course, this award doesn’t really mean anything but it’s an interesting debate nonetheless. The candidates for the award would appear to only be Chris Davis and Manny Machado but you can make arguments for Zach Britton, O’Day and Adam Jones.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
Jones is going to end the year ranked 3rd on the team in fWAR. He currently stands at 3.7 with the last week of games left to play. He has been hurt recently and down the stretch, so that may have affected his numbers some but the lousy 308 OBP really hurts him in this race. You then have O’Day and Britton. These two have been two of the best relievers in baseball this year. O’Day has a 1.44 ERA and Britton has an ERA of 2.04. Britton’s FIP is in line with his ERA and O’Day has an FIP of almost 1 run higher, butwe are still talking about a 2.51 FIP, which is obviously excellent. The strikeouts are high for both, both aren’t walking guys and the HR rates are solid. Britton has distanced himself a little bit with a WPA of 2.29 compared to O’Day, who has a WPA of 1,72, which isn’t that much higher than Brad Brach. Britton ranks 15th in MLB in WPA for relievers and O’Day is 21st (Brach is 23rd, those 3 being the reason the pen has been so good).
However, as good as Jones, Britton and O’Day have been this year, this really is just a two horse race. How the media votes on this will be interesting. So, let’s take a look at the two candidates and break down their seasons, starting with Davis.
It doesn’t seem like it was that long ago to when many Oriole fans were counting down the days until Davis was going to be gone. He had a solid April. He hit .268 and had an 883 OPS. He had 5 homers and 5 doubles and appeared to be getting back to his old ways after a disappointing 2014 season. But then May came around. During baseball’s second month, Davis hit just .196 with a 765 OPS. He had 19 hits all month and struck out 40 times. He did walk 15 times though, so his BA/OBP split was over 100 points, which is always a good number but because the batting average was so low, his OBP was still only .301. June started off bad too, as he was just 14 for his first 64 but again; he was taking walks even when he was struggling. He had 9 free bases in those games, which was a stretch lasting until June 19. So, between May and the first half or so of the month of June, he was 33- 161, which is a .204 BA. However, after the 19th, things started to click for Davis. He ended the month going 13 for 37 with 4 homers, 5 walks, 2 doubles and 10 RBIs. He ended June was a ,257 BA and an 826 OPS. From that point on, he started to really get his stride. He had a 272 BA with an 859 BA in July, followed up by a 257/361/581/942 slash line in August and, as of today, he has an OPS of over 1100(!) for the month of September. Overall, He has a slash line of 258/354/545/899. He has 43 homers, 28 doubles and 110 RBIs. His WPA of 4.85 ranks 10th amongst hitters in all of MLB. He has played first base and RF for the Orioles this year. According to UZR, he has done a good job at both. He has a UZR of 2.7 at first and 2.5 in RF. His fWAR is 4.7 and his rWAR is 4.4 as I type this. He had a tremendous season this year and has set himself up very nicely for free agency.
The next candidate is Machado. Machado has been pretty consistent all year. His worst month, OPS wise, was in August. In that month, he had a 752 OPS. He still hit 280 and had an okay .328 OBP but the power was down. He hasn’t had any other month with an OPS below 800 but he only had one month where he really blew up. That was in the month of June, when he had an OPS of 1.046 and hit .365. He has just been very steady all year long. The big difference for Machado this year has been the increase in walks. He has 68 walks this year and his 286/360 BA/OBP slash line is very solid. His BB% is 10%, which is almost double last year, which was his previously best year. He also, of course, has displayed his usual Gold Glove ability at third base and even played very well defensively in his small sampling at SS. Only Beltre has a higher UZR at third this year than Manny and its pretty close. Manny has made almost 20 errors this year but many of them came early in the season and most were on bad throws. He seemed to be in a throwing slump as the season began. Perhaps it was just a slump or maybe he was still trying to trust the knee. Either way, the defense kept getting better and better as the season progressed. Manny currently has a 286/360/488/848 slash line. He has 30 homers, 29 doubles, 1 triple and 78 RBIs. His RBI count isn’t as high as you would think but that’s likely more of a product of him batting first for most of the year. He is hitting .311 with an 856 OPS with RISP and .315 with an 884 OPS with RISP and 2 outs, so it’s not like he hasn’t been “clutch”. He is 8th in the AL in hits and 6th in runs. His WPA is 30th in the AL, which is much lower than Davis, who is 3rd in the AL. Manny also had 17 steals this year although he was caught 8 times, so the percentage isn’t that great (68%).
When looking at stats alone, Davis seems like the clear winner. However, when you look deeper into things, Machado comes out on top in-my-opinion. First of all, Machado has a 6.4 fWAR, which is 7th in all of MLB. His rWAR is 6.5. He has basically been worth 2 more wins than Davis has. He has also been the more consistent and steady performer. Machado also plays third base, which is a premium position and although Davis has played well defensively, he isn’t in the class of Machado. To me, Machado has clearly been the better all around player. He has been on base and helped set the table for Davis and has allowed Davis to have those RBI opportunities, which, to Davis’ credit, he has cashed in on. Now, Davis has the huge edge in WPA and that makes this a closer race for me but still, when looking at the whole picture, I see Machado as having been the more valuable player.
The next question is, how will the media vote for MVO. I think they vote for Davis. Last year, Steve Pearce lead the team in WAR, played all over the field and was a better all around player than Nelson Cruz but Cruz won because of all those homers and the fact he played everyday. I know Machado is an everyday player and I get that they will look upon him much differently than they would Pearce but I think the media will get stuck on the homers and RBIs and look past the WAR, defensive differences, etc….Again, this award doesn’t mean much but it is an interesting debate and, seemingly like so many arguments in baseball nowadays, it comes down to “old school” vs. “new school”.
What side are you on? Is it Machado or Davis?
Rob has interviewed guests from outlets such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Athlon, Sporting News, MLB Network, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Info Solutions, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, Sports on Earth, Grantland, NFL Network, FanGraphs, Football Outsiders, ProFootballFocus, etc. etc. The Baltimore native lives in Perry Hall with his Wife Lindsay, and two young sons. He has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan, Q1370, and WNST 1570. Co-Host of The Warehouse: https://anchor.fm/the-warehouse Co-Host of Sports Tonight: https://anchor.fm/sports-tonight