Will the Ravens be in Indianapolis Feb 5th?

It is just the first week of October, and 75% of the regular season remains for the Baltimore Ravens. Due that that, anyone you speak with at The Castle will correctly say their focus can only be on the immediate, and hosting Houston on the 16th.

To me though, I feel we have already seen enough to say that it will be disappointing if the Ravens are not in Indianapolis and playing for the Lombardi Trophy February 5th.

Let’s take a quick glance at the other AFC powers:

New England
Positives: The Patriots are leading the league in Offense (1st in Passing, 9th in Rushing). A Belichick Coached team, with Brady at the helm will remain a threat. The way New England is using Hernandez and Gronkowski (overloaded to one side) is proving difficult for anyone to defend. Welker is killing teams underneath. While underachieving, there is plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball. Suh, and Ngata might be the two best DT’s in the league, but Wilfork is not far behind. Haynesworth is dealing with a back injury and hasn’t been the same since leaving Tennessee – but the potential for him to turn it on remains. Spikes and Mayo are young, talented LB’s. Rookie Ras-I Dowling (the 1st pick of the 2nd round) figures to improve as the year progresses. Opposite of him is last year’s 1st rounder Devin McCourty.  New England has a win against San Diego on their resume, and rebounded from their loss to Buffalo, by traveling to Oakland beating a physical Raiders team.

Negatives: The defense might be underachieving, but they are at the absolute bottom of the defensive rankings. If they don’t get a pass rush going (they have just 6 sacks), that Secondary will remain vulnerable. The DE’s Andre Carter, and Shawn Ellis have a lot of wear on their tires. I’m still surprised that New England cut FS Brandon Meriweather, who went to the two previous Pro Bowls. Ochocinco has 7 catches in 4 games, and is a non-factor on the outside. (Not exactly a surprise considering he had had three mediocre seasons entering 2011.) Branch is probably the best deep threat, and is only averaging 14.1 yards per reception.  The ‘Law Firm’ BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a serviceable RB, that has absolutely zero chance of running on the Ravens.

San Diego
Positives:
Plenty of offense with the Chargers. Jackson, and Floyd have size at the WR position that is tough to deal with. 2010 1st rounder Ryan Matthews has emerged at RB, averaging 4.7 yards per carry and he also has 19 receptions. Tolbert has 25 grabs as Matthews backup. San Diego is 6th in Total Defense (5th against the pass, 12th against the run.) 2009 1st rounder Larry English had two sacks on Sunday. If he comes on from the right side (opposite LOLB Shawn Phillips, and ’11 1st rounder LDE Corey Liuget) their defense could be tough to deal with. Marcus Gilchrist has added fresh legs at CB.

Negatives: The Chargers All-Pro TE Antonio Gates is dealing with a chronic foot injury. DE Luis Castillo might return before the end of the year, but his broken leg might cause him to miss the entire season. The Bob Sanders experiment came to a quick end.  San Diego is 3-1, but have plenty of challenging games remaining (@ Jets, Green Bay, Oakland, @Oakland, @Chicago, Buffalo, Baltimore, @Detroit) on the schedule. They have also already lost to the Patriots. It is hard to see them getting home field advantage. While no AFC team would be opposed to a January trip to San Diego, the Chargers might have a tougher time playing in Winter conditions in the East. (Though an improved running game helps in that regard.)

Houston
Positives: The Texans are loaded with talent. Their bookend Offensive Tackles – Duane Brown, and Eric Winston – are very strong upfront. Andre Johnson (who appears likely to miss the Ravens game) is a monster at WR. Walter, and J. Jones are capable. TE Owen Daniels looks like the Pro Bowl player he was prior to his injuries. Foster had 2,200+ combined yards at RB last year, and his backup Ben Tate is showing why Houston selected him in the 2nd round last year. Matt Schaub lives in basic anonymity, but continues to put up prolific numbers. The talent continues on the Defensive side of the ball as well. Defensive Coordinator Wade Phillips has had a lot of success in that position previously (particularly with Denver, and Buffalo in the ’90s).  Mario Williams has adjusted to his move to ROLB, and already has 4 sacks. Those Texans LB’s are just strong in-general. Connor Barwin and Brooks Reed are recent high draft picks at LOLB. Brian Cushing has moved inside, and All-Pro DeMeco Ryans has returned from his injuries. ’11 1st rounder JJ Watt is starting at LE. Opposite of him, Antonio Smith has 4 sacks. Jonathan Joseph was added to the Secondary at a much more reasonable price than Asomugha.  ’10 1st rounder Kareem Jackson is no longer required to match-up against the best opposing WR. Rackers has as strong a leg as anyone as a PK.  Without Manning, the Colts are a non-factor in their division. The loss of Britt figures to impact the Titans at some point.

Negatives: Houston is 10th in Total Defense, but just 18th against the run. Cushing is putting up tackles inside, but has yet to make the type of impact plays that made him an All-Pro during ’09 Rookie season. I’m struggling to come up with other negatives for the Texans, they are loaded. Probably their biggest current limitation is that as they have not won big games yet as a team, they collectively do not know how good they can be.

Beyond that trio, there are a number of other teams in the AFC I respect, but do not fear.

Tennessee already has the head-to-head win, and we said going into that week that the Titans had more talent than they were getting credit for. I think the loss of Britt is going to hurt them at some point, but they might be able to overcome it somewhat. Teams will continue to key on Johnson with 8 man fronts. If their line continues to give Hasselbeck time, the veteran QB can find single coverage on the outside. I don’t think they are good enough to win the Conference, but they are strong enough to potentially make the playoffs.

Oakland has a big bruising O-line, and a running game that can travel anywhere. McFadden is taking the step to uber star. Heyward-Bey had a career high 115 yards against New England last week. Ford, and Moore also have the requisite Raiders foot-speed. Boss has replaced Zach Miller. Campbell has had two 300+ yard games already. Might remain inconsistent, but he does flash the ability that made him a 1st rounder. Seymour is still going up-front (3 sacks), and I like Wimbley and McClain at LB; but their Defense is ranked just 29th overall (22nd against the Pass, 29th against the Run). They would not stop Ray Rice, and the Ravens would slow McFadden at the minimum. Like San Diego, they could have trouble traveling East in January.

Prior to the Ravens coming to Baltimore, I was a Bills fan. As such, I’m happy for Buffalo that they are finally showing some signs of life. Ravens fans will remember the scare the Bills put into Baltimore last year. Fitzpatrick makes good decisions. Jackson is a strong RB. Spiller remains a possible ‘home-run’ threat. Johnson is following-up his breakout season at WR, with similar production. Chandler is a huge target at TE, and moves better than you would expect. The Bills are near the bottom in the Defensive numbers, will be interesting to see if Shawn Merriman, and Marcell Dareus can come on a bit.

Despite what we saw from them Sunday Night, the Jets should not be buried yet. With a healthy Mangold, Ngata and Cody would not have dominated like they did. New York has to get back to a ground and pound mentality, and feed Shonne Green the ball. To me, their biggest issue is the overall lack of talent in their Defensive Front 7. Of course, Rex Ryan can cover for that a bit with aggressive schemes. If they get Green going at RB, they can still be a factor. The key to a Ryan defense is not the pressure, but their commitment to stopping the run and forcing teams into 3rd and long. The whipping Oakland gave them on the ground, has stripped the Jets of their identity.

If I’m not burying the Jets, I’m also not ready to give last rights to Pittsburgh. That is a group of players (and a Coaching staff) that has accomplished plenty. A lot of pride in that locker-room. Still, I watched them Sunday against Houston and I was left thinking it will be a struggle for the Steelers all year. With their problems blocking up-front, Roethlisberger is not doing his line any favors by holding onto the ball as long as he does. Miller and Ward remain possession type options, but their age is showing. Have to respect Wallace though (113.5 yards per game, 18.2 yards per catch, 7.3 yards after the catch). Mendenhall is averaging just 3 yards a carry, and only has 58 carries as he deals with a hamstring injury. If the Steelers are going to improve, I think they will need their young DE’s Ziggy Hood, and Cameron Heyward to emerge. The LB’s might be aging, but they still have my respect. With Harrison set to miss a few weeks, 2010 2nd rounder Jason Worilds could get some time. That breather could also keep Harrison fresher down the stretch. Ironically, the real reason I do not fear the Steelers is their Secondary. The reason that is ironic is that Pittsburgh is currently leading the league in Passing Defense. I keep seeing people call Ike Taylor one of the better / more underrated CB’s in the league. I just don’t see it. Obviously Polamalu remains one of the best Safeties, but his game was never built on cover skills.

I hope what I have illustrated is that I believe New England, San Diego, and Houston have plenty of ability; and that I know there are plenty of other AFC teams capable of beating the Ravens in a one game scenario.

What I do not see though, is a team that is better prepared to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl than the Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens are 3-1 as they head into their Week 5 Bye. They are 3rd in the league in Total Defense (9th in Pass Defense, 3rd in Rushing Defense).  The Offense is ranked 14th overall (19th in Passing, 8th in Rushing). Baltimore leads the league in point differential, and yet remains a work in progress overall, that can improve as players get healthy.

This is my review of the Raven’s roster:

QB: Flacco, Taylor (2)
Thoughts: Flacco has been very poor in two games. His completion % (49.3) is extremely poor. I’m not concerned at all. He is not a 49.3% completion QB, he is far closer to his 60.9% career average. As poor as he looked against Tennessee, and the Jets, is as good as he looked against Pittsburgh and St. Louis. He had 3,600+ yards last year with 25 TD’s, 10 picks, and a QB Rating over 90%. I will not be surprised to see him eclipse those numbers.

RB: Rice, Williams, Allen (3)
FB: Leach (1)
Thoughts: Rice is averaging a combined 134.8 yards per game. His yards per carry average has increased from 4.0 last year to 4.5 this year. He is on the short list of best RB’s in the league. Williams has had 33 carries in the first four games, and is averaging 4.7 yards per carry. If you take away his two fumbles, I like what we have seen from him. He is running hard between the tackles. Leach is what we thought he was, a punishing blocking FB. He is also showing some decent hands as an outlet receiver. I’d like to see a greater commitment of running behind Leach.

WR: Boldin, Evans, T. Smith, D. Reed, Doss, L. Williams (6)
Thoughts: Boldin is on-pace for a year similar to last year in-terms of receptions and yards. His yards per reception is up though (14.8 vs. 13.1 last year), as is his yards after the catch (4.9 vs. 3.8). I’d like to see him find the end-zone more often though.
We’ve yet to see a healthy Evans, I expect we will after the bye. I was happy to see the Ravens give him off against the Jets. After missing Week 3, Week 4, and getting off for the bye; he should be good to go against Houston. I want to see 3 WR sets, where teams have to deal with him and Torrey Smith as down the field threats. Despite what Smith did against St. Louis, he is going to remain a work in progress. Smith works so hard, I have no doubt that he will eventually be a superior route runner. This year (especially without the mini-camps) his key asset is getting down the field. He beat Revis a couple of times Sunday night, showing he will be a handful for any DB to defend in single coverage. I went into the season expecting Doss to be the Ravens 3rd WR, and an immediate help as a possession receiver. Has not happened yet, we will see if he is able to get more time as the year goes. Williams continues to be a great story, and is seeing more time than I anticipated. Does figure to be reduced though as Evans returns.

TE: Dickson, Pitta, Wilson, (3)
Thoughts: I said before the season that I thought Dickson and Pitta could match, and possibly exceed, Heap’s offensive production from last year. Dickson already has 16 grabs, for 180 yards. His yard per catch average has dropped from 13.8 last year to 11.3 though. His longest reception is just 19 yards. I think he can be used down the field more, as he runs past LB’s and over Safeties. Ian Rapoport of the Boston Herald, told us that when healthy – the Patriots are using their TE’s Hernandez, and Gronkowski together 80% of the time. I don’t understand why the Ravens are not using Dickson and Pitta in a similar fashion. Pitta is averaging 16.6 yards on his 5 grabs, and is a much better athlete than I gave him credit for. Wilson is probably the Ravens best blocking TE. Maybe he needs to be utilized in Red Zone situations? I’d like to see Cameron bring back the Jumbo package he utilized so well when he first came to Baltimore. Wilson could be a help with that.

O-Line: McKinnie, Grubbs, Birk, Yanda, Oher, Gurode, Reid, LeVoir, Mattison (9)
Thoughts: We said before the season that McKinnie at LT, Yanda at RG, and Oher at RT was an upgrade at three positions. It showed as such immediately against Pittsburgh in the Opener. Gurode has looked good the last two weeks at LG in-place of the injured Grubbs. When Grubbs gets back, I would not be opposed to seeing Gurode replace Birk. As we talked about with the TE’s, we would like to see more Jumbo looks from the Ravens. You could bring in Gurode or Reid and just maul teams.

D-Line: Ngata, Cody, McKinney, Redding, Jones, McPhee, Kruger,  (7)
Thoughts: The Ravens defense looks so much better with Cody in place of Gregg. I’m surprised McKinney does not get on the field more. Seems like he could be rotated in. We continue to be happy with the depth, particularly McPhee who seems to make plays when ever he gets the opportunity. In the three wins, the Defensive Line has won their match-ups against the opposing O-Lines. In the loss at Tennessee, the Titans stood the Ravens up.

LB: Lewis, Johnson, Suggs, Kindle, McClain, Ellerbe, Ayanbadejo, McClellan, (8)
Thoughts: Since the Bye last year, Suggs has played the best ball of his career. I thought Kindle would be given an opportunity starting in Game 1 to be a pass rusher on 3rd down. I was wrong, as he was activated for the first time in Game 4. We know the Ravens do not think he can help as a LB on 1st and 2nd down, and question what he brings via Special Teams. I still think Kindle emerging would be one of those last piece of the puzzle type of things. After dealing with injuries last year, Johnson looks rejuvenated.

CB: Smith, Webb, Carr,  C. Williams, McCann, Gorrer, C. Brown (7)
Thoughts: It was a shame to see Smith go down to an injury right away in Game 1, but it could have been worse. Hopefully he will back after the Bye. I was hoping he would get the chance to go against Andre Johnson right away, but that does not appear likely. Smith needs to be on the field, gaining as much experience as possible. The Ravens can be even more aggressive on their blitz-schemes if Smith becomes capable of handling coverage on an Island. I was sorry to see Foxworth not be able to make it all the way back. A great leader, and when healthy a guy with plus speed, and good cover skills. I thought he might be burned early, and each week get closer to being the guy he was. I’m sorry he didn’t start the year on the PUP list, and had to go back on IR. It appears like McCann will get an opportunity to play, and his ability to help in the Return games increases his versatility. Carr is dealing with a thigh injury, but with him – Webb, and Williams – I generally feel good about the CB’s. As a group, they will be as good as the pressure the D-Line and LB’s bring up-front. Hasselbeck and Britt tore the Ravens apart in single coverage, but that was almost solely due to the lack of pressure.

Safety: Reed, Pollard, Zbikowski, Nakamura (4)
Thoughts: With the knee injury to Nakamura (still weeks away from a return), and the concussion Zbikowski suffered Sunday; the Safety depth is currently thin. Having Reed return Punts in the 4th Quarter Sunday was ridiculous.

ST: Koch, Cundiff, Cox (3)
Thoughts: The new kickoff rule is every bit the joke we thought it would be for Cundiff.

We are sticking with the pre-season pick of a 13-3 projected record for the Ravens. As we have talked about, Baltimore hosts Houston after the Bye.  At home, and playing a Texans team likely without Johnson, the Ravens should win that game.  Trips remain to Pittsburgh, and to San Diego. Arizona, and San Francisco have some ability, but both have to come East. It would not be shocking to see Baltimore pushed in Division games at Cleveland, and Cincinnati. Outside of that, it is hard to see a lot of possible losses on the remaining schedule. That means home playoff games are likely, and so too I believe, a trip to Indianapolis.