The University of Maryland Terrapins entered the 2015-16 season with extremely high expectations.  They were #1 in the ESPN Power Poll.  #3 in the AP and Coaches Polls. Given the anticipation which existed, reaching the Sweet 16 as a program for the first time since the 2003 season feels like a small consolation prize for many Terps fans.

As Kansas put the lights out on Maryland’s season last night, thoughts immediately turned to next November and the start of another year. What will the Terrapins look like? What type of ceiling will the roster have? What will be their floor?

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

The truth is those questions are currently not answerable. How can one have definitive expectations for the roster, when it’s not even clear who the roster will be comprised of?

We know that Rasheed Sulaimon, and Jake Layman (and Varun Ram) have played their last game in a Maryland uniform.

We know that three talented Freshman – Anthony Cowan, Kevin Huerter, and Micah Thomas – are coming to College Park.

The primary question of course is what will happen with Diamond Stone, Melo Trimble, and Robert Carter? All have eligibility remaining. If that trio were to elect to come back, Maryland would likely be seen as a Final Four contender. Certainly would be looked at as a preseason Top 10 squad.

It’s hard to believe each will return though.

Stone’s game is raw, and his skillset might be out of fashion at the NBA level; but he’s still a 6’11 guy with ability. Even without eye flashing athleticism, there isn’t a projection to be found which doesn’t have him selected somewhere in the 1st round of the upcoming 2016 NBA Draft. The typical logic is that if a player is seen as a definite to be selected in the 1st round (and thus receive a guaranteed contract), that player should go. That whatever gains the player could have by returning to college, they can get by turning pro and focusing on basketball full-time. You can agree or disagree with that rationale, but it would be surprising to see Stone return to Maryland for a reason.

Trimble’s Sophomore season embodied the results of the team as a whole. It’s hard to say he had a bad year, but expectations for what he would deliver were not met. Many suspected that his late-season slump was the result of injury. Trimble has confirmed (as relayed through CBS Sports last night) that he was never able to quite get over the hamstring injury he suffered vs. Rutgers in January. Most projections for him have him somewhere in the 25 to 45 range. He could sneak into the back of the 1st round, or he could be a 2nd round pick. As he isn’t a 1st round lock, it seems to me that he should return. Will he? Who knows. Have to figure that he will test the NBA waters. As with Stone, he’s not an elite athlete. He’s unlikely to become an NBA starter. He’s someone that should have a successful NBA career though due to his basketball IQ. The primary question for him will be does he think he can improve his stock by returning?

I don’t see Carter as an NBA player. To me he lacks the lateral quickness to play at that level. I do believe he can easily make a nice living somewhere as a professional though. I think he’s Maryland’s best PF since Chris Wilcox. Given that he sat out last year, maybe Carter is ready to become a professional? Maybe his decision is tied to what happens with Stone, and Trimble? Again, who really knows?

If Stone, Trimble, and Carter returning makes Maryland a Final Four contender, what’s the inverse? What would be the appropriate expectations for that Terps team?

Without them, the Maryland roster would look like:

Guards: Cowan, Wiley, Brantley, Huerter
Wing: Nickens, Thomas
Bigs: Dodd, Cekovsky, Bender

So, what do you have there?

You have optimism that that Cowan, and Huerter will produce immediately. It’s perfectly reasonable to expect them to be quality options who contribute. The question will be, what is their ceiling as Freshman, and what level of consistency do they reach?

If Trimble is gone, and Cowan has to run the offense, and provide regular scoring; that is a lot to ask. What Trimble did as a Freshman was the exception, not the rule. Surely it’s realistic to believe that Cowan as a Freshman, does not figure to be as good as Trimble was as a Sophomore (even if one is disappointed by Trimble’s Sophomore season). That doesn’t mean that Cowan can’t reach those highs, it means just that it would not be fair to him to expect that he will immediately be at that level.

Prior to Wiley’s injury, there was a lot of talk about the gains he made after his Freshman year. It’s clear he would have been MD’s 2nd best on-ball defender behind only Sulaimon, and there was was hope his offense would have taken a leap. What should we expect from him next year? Who knows, let’s see him get back on a court. He will be far enough past his injury, that I mostly anticipate him rounding into his pre-injury form; but that still remains to be seen.

Brantley was buried on the bench for large portions of this year. To me, I would have forced playing time to him early – especially after Wiley’s injury – to try and get more out of him later. Regardless, he did earn his way out of Coach Turgeon’s dog house, and got more playing time late in the season. It’s reasonable to think his confidence will only grow as he enters his 2nd year in the system. It’s reasonable to think he has the ability to be solid backup PG.

Through two seasons, we have seen that Jared Nickens is a shooter. If he is going to start in ’16-’17, his game has to develop. Has to improve on the dribble-drive. Has to be able to get to the line more often. Has to commit to being a better defensive player. If his one hallmark is going to be his jump shooting, that needs to rebound as well. He went from shooting 39% from 3 as a Freshman, to 35% as a Sophomore. If his game doesn’t become more well rounded, you have to think that Huerter, and Thomas will eat in this minutes.

Maryland would have the ability to play to their strengths, and space the floor with four shooters in small-ball alignments. It’s plausible to see Maryland often having Cowan, Wiley, Nickens, Huerter / Thomas on the court together.

I can see that group being entertaining, and successful together. You can also envision that group occasionally being exposed by teams with strong interior play. Maryland has been a horrible offensive rebounding team the last two years (286th Nationally this year with Stone and Carter). Is that going to improve in that regard without them?

I feel like I’m higher on Damonte Dodd, and Michal Cekovsky than most. Both can help a roster with their size, and good athleticism. Both can help defensively. Clearly they have their limitations though.  You aren’t going to get consistent post-scoring from either. Without an option that defenses respect inside, defenses can push out further on those shooters. Neither are particularly good rebounders, despite their size. Both have issues with their hands. Prior to last night, I had spent the past 6-7 games asking Coach Turgeon through the TV to give Cekovsky some run. Instead we saw him continue to languish on the bench, as Turgeon tightened the rotation. The only reason he got into the game last night, was desperation after the foul-trouble Stone got into.

You could do a lot worse than a Senior Dodd, and a Junior Cekovsky as your Center combination, but the drop from Stone to them is fairly significant.

If Coach Turgeon did not want to go with the small ball alignment we discussed above, the scenario without Carter would be either using Cekovsky as the 4 (thus limiting the depth behind Dodd at the 5), or using Ivan Bender.

In Bender’s very limited minutes this year, I saw some flashes. He looked to have decent athleticism to me. Perhaps my optimism is tied to the comments my BSL Colleague Chris Knoche passed along last October about Bender showing some positives in practice. As with Brantley, he will have benefited by having had a full year in the system, practicing regularly. Having battled Layman, and Carter in practice could have only helped. You would hope he will be able to give Maryland something next year. What he could give Maryland next year though, will remain a guess. He played 43 minutes total this season, all in garbage time. Turgeon clearly never saw enough progression from him in practice this year, to feel compelled to find a way to get him on the court.  It should be agreed by all, that if Bender gets regular time at the 4 next year, that’s a step back from what you had with Carter this season.

The above roster without Stone, Trimble, and Carter is only 9 deep. I think at that point it can be assumed that Maryland would aggressively look to the graduate transfer market. Some possible transfers are listed here.  That list will continue to grow. The thing to watch would be who would have immediate eligibility?

We know it’s been reported that Maryland has shown strong interest in Jonathan Mulmore, who is at Allegany College. His addition wouldn’t help Maryland’s Front-court issues, but he would give Maryland another scorer.

We’ve seen that under Coach Turgeon, and his staff; new names regularly emerge. If there is a player available with a chance to help the roster, you can have confidence that Maryland will at-least make an attempt. In that sense, I have a lot of confidence that additional depth would be added. However, will that depth be more like a Logan Aronhalt vs. a Sulaimon? Again, something to watch.

To reiterate, if Maryland was lucky enough that Stone, Trimble, and Carter each decided to return; I think the Terps would enter next season again thinking about reaching the program’s third Final Four.

You can make a case for each of them individually to return, with Carter being the most likely in my eyes.

If all three leave, and Maryland has an entirely new starting five – all is not lost. There is talent coming back, and coming into the program with or without the aforementioned trio. That said, while I think there is enough talent to possibly get back to the NCAAT, that would not be my current projection. Without that trio, right now I’d have Maryland looking like a NCAAT Bubble team, more likely on the outside and in the NIT, vs. in the Dance.

Lot of things to been seen though. Who does leave? Who else might join the program? Who does improve before the season begins? Who progresses during the year? How consistent are the Freshman? What does the final schedule look like?

Ultimately all questions for another day. Today, we can enjoy that last night did hurt a bit. Meaning after not be a part of a Sweet 16 for so long, it was fun to see the program back in that spotlight. Losing a game that matters is better than not being part of the spectacle. Expectations were not reached this year, but the program did take a necessary stride forward. Now, it is about building on this new foundation of these last two seasons, and continuing to progress.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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