Two of the top prospects in the upcoming draft are linebackers Myles Jack from UCLA and Jaylon Smith of Notre Dame. Both players were looking like locks to be top 5 picks before injuries cut their final collegiate seasons short, and unfortunately for both players, the nature of these injuries is casting their short term and long term futures in doubt. Smith had a horrific knee injury where he tore both his ACL and LCL, but the real issue may be if he sustained nerve damage that could further hamper his recovery. It is likely that he will be out for the 2016 season, and there is no guarantee he ever comes back to play football at the same level if at all. Jack’s injury seemed to be a relatively minor torn meniscus, but upon medical re-check it was determined by some that his knee may have a degenerative condition. What do these injuries mean for these prospects, and how do they affect the Ravens draft plans?
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Myles Jack will probably end up being the tougher evaluation for the Ravens FO. He has been working out and looked extremely impressive in field drills at his pro day, so there should be no concerns about his ability to contribute from Day 1. However, depending on how his knee holds up, he could be facing a short career in the NFL. One source was recently quoted as saying his knee is a “time bomb” that is impossible to know how long it will hold up.
NFL source calls Myles Jack “a time bomb” whose knee could give him several good years, or not. Bone and cartilage starting to break away.
— Les Bowen (@LesBowen) April 18, 2016
It is important to point out that some teams gave Jack’s knee a passing grade.
#UCLA LB Myles Jack’s medical recheck is over. “Differing opinions.” Some teams thought the healing wasn’t fast enough. Others are OK it.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 15, 2016
While it seems highly unlikely that any team would give Jack a passing grade on his medical re-check if his knee was in a severe state of disrepair, it does seem likely there are some concerns with the knee’s long-term outlook. He could end up having to undergo micro-fracture surgery to promote temporary healing of the knee’s cartilage, but micro-fracture is tough to come back from and is not a cure that will last for more than a few years. The questions that the Ravens and other teams will have to face are weighing the immediate benefits of drafting a player with Jack’s talent versus the risk of his knee condition that could become an issue at some unknown time-point. If he is a great player for 5 years, but then has a steep decline or is forced into early retirement, is that worth a top pick?
The evaluation of Jaylon Smith is a bit more straightforward because teams already know there is little chance he will be playing in 2016. For some teams, that fact alone will likely lead to him being removed or dropped several rounds on their draft board. However, the real issue that Smith is facing is the potential nerve damage in his leg.
Source says Jaylon Smith’s recheck showed drop-foot problem, caused by nerve damage, hasn’t improved since the combine.
— Les Bowen (@LesBowen) April 18, 2016
This type of injury is difficult to definitively diagnose, and nerve growth and repair is even harder to predict. There is a distinct possibility that he will never fully recover, and that Smith’s career ends before it even started. On the other hand, there is still a good chance that he will be able to fully recover and come back as the elite playmaker he was projected to be before the injury. Any team drafting Smith will have to weigh the knowledge that he might not be able to ever play for them against his potential if he does fully recover. There is almost zero chance he is taken in the first round, so at what point does the potential value outweigh the risk?
The Ravens have a lot to consider when evaluating these two potential star linebackers, and I am certain the FO has done their due diligence. Would they use their 6th overall pick on Myles Jack given the risk? Would they trade back and still be able to draft him? There is also a very real possibility Jack is taken before pick #6 because a team drafting in the top 5 isn’t concerned about his knee. How team doctors evaluate Jack’s knee will be the most critical aspect to his draft status.
For Smith, the Ravens will most likely have multiple opportunities to draft him. Is he worth their second or third round pick, or maybe he will still be there in the fourth round? In my opinion, if he is still on the board in the fourth round, he would be extremely hard to pass on.
In the end, the most important information will come from the team doctor and medical staff, and with their insight the Ravens approach to players with medical concerns may end up being very straightforward. Still, as outsiders in the process, it is interesting to speculate on how the NFL will handle these two unique talents.
Ravens Analyst
Gabe is an avid fan of the NFL and Ravens football. He grew up in Westminster, MD, and attended college at Johns Hopkins University majoring in Biology. He earned his Ph.D. in Molecular Biology from the University of California, Los Angeles, and now works as a R&D Scientist developing Transplant Diagnostics assays. Gabe has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan.