Following the 2015 season, Matt Wieters was projected by MLBTR to receive a 4 year $64M contract from someone, even with him having been offered the Qualifying offer by the Orioles.

The market for a contract at that level apparently never developed for the switch-hitter, thus he accepted the 1 year $15.8M qualifier from the O’s for this 2016 season.

After a 2 homer, 3 for 4 performance vs. Tampa Bay Saturday night, Wieters is now batting .278, with 9 homers, and 37 rbi. His OPS has climbed over .800 (.332 on-base %, .471 slugging %). His wOBA is .343, and his fWAR now stands at 1.3.

Since Wieters first arrived in the Majors, one of my primary criticisms of him has been his elongated swing. It has appeared that he shortened up his approach some. He looks quicker to the ball recently to me. His splits are also interesting. Over the past 3 years (2013-15), he had a .692 OPS in 633 ab’s as a LHH, and a .827 OPS in 252 ab’s as a RHH. So far here in ’16, he has a .927 OPS as a lefty (136 ab’s), and a .467 OPS as a righty (51 ab’s).

Will be watching those splits over the remainder of the year. Another thing to watch is how he holds-up catching over 120+ games, after being limited to 101 combined games the previous two years.

I’m curious if his current performance to-date, has the O’s thinking about offering Wieters a multi-year deal?

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Right now, I believe the general assumption from most would be that the O’s would again make the Qualifying offer, with the expectation that this time it would be declined.

If you subscribe to this point-of-view, the thinking from the Wieters perspective is that after lost 2014, and 2015 seasons; the Catcher is reestablishing his value and will find enough money elsewhere where it’s an easy decision to decline the Qualifier. From the O’s perspective, the thinking would be that investing in a multi-year deal for a 30 year old Catcher might not be smart, and that money could be saved by utilizing Caleb Joseph, and Chance Sisco as the back-stop duo in 2017.

Is this general assumption an accurate representation of the O’s current thinking?

I’m not so sure.

I think it’s clear that Wieters has long been a favorite of Orioles Manager Buck Showalter, and Bench Coach John Russell. With Wieters performing, will Showalter push Executive Vice-President Dan Duquette to work on an extension?

Another wrinkle is the forthcoming non-waiver deadline. Baltimore enters today 14 games over .500, and with a 3 game lead in the AL East. The need for improvement to the rotation is known, and has been discussed repeatedly.

Even with a depleted system, you would think the O’s could obtain a Rich Hill, a Jeremy Hellickson, a Andrew Cashner, or maybe a Drew Pomeranz without giving up Sisco.

However, what if Sisco is moved as part of a package for someone?
Will that be a clear tell with the O’s intentions with Wieters?

Had Wieters gone elsewhere last Winter, the starting backstop this year would have been Joseph.

I was comfortable with that. There certainly was an argument that Joseph was the better defensive catcher. I also thought there were good reasons to give Joseph more playing time than the normal back-up as this year started.

If Sisco were moved in the coming weeks, would you be comfortable with the idea of Joseph as the stop-gap option for ’17? Would the O’s?

Joseph is on the verge of returning to the O’s after his surgery. It’s been a pretty rough few months for Joseph here in ’16. You don’t want to overstate the importance of 66 ab’s, but he’s sporting a sub .200 batting average, with 2 doubles, and no homers. Unless Wieters suffers any health set-backs, there will only be so much playing time for Joseph the rest of the year.

So, imagine a scenario where it’s October. Wieters has helped the O’s reach the post-season for a 3rd time in 5 years. Sisco has been traded, and Joseph has suffered through a mostly lost ’16.

Will you be surprised if the O’s then look to reach a multi-year deal with Wieters?

I won’t.

When Wieters was drafted, he was compared to Jason Varitek. When he was dominating Single A Frederick, and Double A Bowie in 2008 – as an advanced college bat – the comparisons became Joe Mauer with ‘more power.’  Those were astronomical expectations, that he could have only matched by becoming a multiple-time MVP. By failing to meet those levels, in the eyes of many he’s considered a failure.

That’s an unfortunate perception. The truth is he’s a multiple time All-Star, who has had a quality career. It looks like he is in position to add to his career resume going forward.

While it’s plausible that he could still be an Oriole next year, as I said previously, I don’t expect Sisco to be moved. As long as Sisco is part of the organization, it seems likely to me that the O’s Front Office will decide a multiple-year deal with Wieters is a luxury they can’t afford.

If that’s the case, I’m going to enjoy watching Wieters play out the last months of his career as an Oriole during the remainder of ’16.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

X