With Brian Roberts beginning a rehab assignment at AAA Norfolk, the Orioles may soon have a decision to make. With Ryan Flaherty and Alexi Casilla on the roster as the resident second basemen, Roberts’ arrival would cause quite the logjam. That would leave the club with a decision to make: which second basemen should stay on the roster?

Let us know who you think should stay on the BSL board here!

Flaherty

Let’s assume, for the sake of the argument that Brian Roberts will be on the roster. He’ll get a shot because he started off the season playing well, and is owed a whole heck of a lot of money. That’s not to say that those two things should guarantee him a roster spot. In reality however, it’s likely that he’ll get a shot unless he strikes out in every PA he has during his rehab stint (or re-injures himself, which is a distinct possibility unfortunately). EDIT: Roberts doubled in his first AB at Norfolk, so it doesn’t look like he won’t be back up.

So that leaves Alexi Casilla and Ryan Flaherty battling for the backup second base job. Coming into today Flaherty is hitting a laughable .200 on the season. Now I could go into his BABIP being a paltry .235, and how that suggests that he should be hitting better. Instead, I’ll just say this:

Mar/Apr: .125 BA

May: .182 BA

June: .277 BA

Flaherty has been hot of late, and I don’t necessarily expect him to keep hitting at such a high level. I do however think that he’s better than a .200 hitter, and should be given a chance to hit despite what his cumulative stats say right now. Also, if you believe fielding statistics in small sample sizes, he has range at 2B that compares favorably to some of the best second basemen in baseball.

Alexi Casilla on the other hand has hit slightly better than Flaherty, to the tune of a .211/.266/.282 triple slash. Emphasis on slightly there. While Flaherty has been equalling terrible (cumulatively) against batters from both sides of the plate, Casilla performs marginally better against lefties. Coincidentally that’s the side that Brian Roberts has fared worse against over his career, so if you think that a platoon might be in order, there could be an argument there.

Casilla has, according to defensive statistics in an impossibly small sample size, been good defensively. They do not however like him nearly as much as they like Flaherty. When it comes to baserunning, the edge goes to Casilla, but it’s not nearly as large as you might think.

So it comes down to this, who has the edge in each phase of the game:

Batting: Toss Up

Fielding: Flaherty

Baserunning: Casilla

If you think Flaherty is closer to the .270 hitter he’s been in the month of June, I would think that you would go with him. If you think he’s more of the .200 guy from the beginning of the season, then I’d give the edge to Casilla. In this case, I’d take the offensive upside of Flaherty because I know that he has power in that bat. I’d also default to better defense than better baserunning, so ultimately my choice would be Flaherty.

It’s not that easy though. BSL’s own Jon Shepherd provides us with the definitive guide on player options that tells more of the story. As you can see, Casilla is out of options while Flaherty has already been optioned this season. That would mean that putting Flaherty in the minors would do basically nothing to the club other than moving the player. Casilla on the other hand would not be so easy, as the club can’t simply option him to AAA.

The decision comes down to this: Would you rather have Flaherty or Casilla on your bench? Are you ok with Flaherty only getting part-time ABs if he’s your guy? Are you willing to risk losing Casilla if that’s the case?

The answer for me is yes. I’d want Flaherty on the Major League roster, and I would use him as more than just a spare part to cover Roberts’ off days. I’ve long been in the Flaherty camp, and I’m not jumping off the bandwagon now. Let’s see if the O’s feel the same way.

Jeff Long
Jeff Long

Jeff was the owner of the Orioles blog Warehouse Worthy, which focused on making advanced statistics a part of the conversation for the average fan. Outside of baseball, Jeff is a graduate of Loyola University where he received his Bachelor’s and Master’s in Business Administration. The Maryland native currently works for an Advertising Agency in downtown Baltimore. Previously a contributor to Beyond the Boxscore, he joined Baseball Prospectus in September 2014. You can reach him at [email protected].

X