The numbers continue to build up for all NFL teams. Each team has two games by which to measure themselves. 2-0, 1-1 or 0-2: again, this is a scoreboard driven and highly emotion business. 8 teams still have a reality of joining the 1972 Dolphins with an undefeated season. Giants, Eagles, Vikings, Broncos, Texans, Patriots, Steelers and the Ravens. In the exact opposite position, 8 teams are still in search of their first win of the season.

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Over at theQ5.com, we will continue to step week by week through the 2016 season, evaluating possession data as it is produced. The real-time graphical game summaries display every possession, drive result and drive success in precise time history format while replacing multiple clicks on summary statistics, play-by-play logs, drive charts and analysis articles. This high-level quantitative analysis clearly reveals team, offensive and defensive unit performances through situational drive and game success calculations. It directly challenges the existing NFL unit ranking systems based mainly on total yardage and points. Start with GameMaps for your predictive and reflective analytical needs as the season unfolds.

Let’s explore the numbers behind the year-to-date performance of the Ravens and their week 3 opponent – the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags sit at 0-2. The first quarter of the season is halfway over and the Jags have some work to do – quickly. It takes a few weeks to really understand what a team is made of. Starting in week 5, TheQ5 will come out with team rankings through a self-consistently solved computer model accounting for strength of schedule and home/away information. Should be fun to watch grow and predict outcomes. Stay tuned.

In the first week of the season, winning teams had Q-scores of +16.1 with average scores of 26.3 to 18.6 in the 16 games.  In week 2, the winners had Q-scores of +35.3 with average scores of 27.7 to 17.6. The week 2 games – in terms of bulk averages – were not as competitively contested as the games in week 1.  The winners in week 2 deserved to win more than the winners in week 1. 

What do we know about the Ravens and the Jags after two weeks?

TeamWinsLossesSeason-QRankTeam TrendRank
'PHI'30102.91105.11
'MIN'3061.6259.24
'ATL'2152.4364.13
'NE'3039.7464.82
'SD'1235.5527.79
'DAL'2132.0638.66
'DEN'2129.5737.57
'KC'2127.5850.55
'ARI'1218.19-8.416
'OAK'219.31019.510
'BUF'127.01128.58
'GB'213.61212.311
'SF'120.813-15.220
'BAL'300.514-1.515
'CAR'12-1.015-15.421
'SEA'21-4.2164.312
'DET'12-6.417-13.819
'LAR'21-9.418-1.114
'IND'12-14.019-11.518
'HOU'21-14.120-42.928
'CIN'12-16.521-22.123
'CLE'03-16.7221.413
'NYJ'12-17.123-40.827
'PIT'21-18.024-46.130
'NYG'21-20.125-21.322
'WSH'12-23.826-9.917
'MIA'12-25.127-28.624
'NO'03-25.528-43.229
'JAX'03-35.529-32.025
'TB'12-44.730-36.526
'TEN'12-60.031-56.531
'CHI'03-68.232-66.732

Ravens are not “lucky” to be 2-0 but they certainly have not dominated two opponents who are 0-4 collectively. Their first two opponents would most likely feel very good with 8-8 seasons. The Jags have played two teams that are now a combined 2-2 and both think of themselves as playoff-worthy. The Jags have been slightly better than the Ravens based on offensive drive performance but the difference lies in the defense.  The Jags defense has had two bad performances. Although week 2 may have looked worse than week 1 on the scoreboard for the Jags – the Q-scores for the defense in both weeks are very similar. Very bad.

Game Maps from weeks 1 and 2 for both teams (video tutorial)

JAXweek22016

This is a pretty brutal beat down especially when looking at just the first three quarters – not much of anything up high in the successful region for the Jags.

JAXweek12016

In both games, the Jags gave up a TD on their opponent’s first possession. Get that fixed before moving on.

Ravens:

BALweek22016

The Ravens waited quite a while to get it going on offense and defense in this game – again against an opponent still searching for an identity – from the field to the front office.  This would have been a horrible loss if it would have happened.

BALweek12016

Game recap from week 1 focusing on drive analytics.

Ravens with a chance to go 3-0 with a successful veteran coach and QB…. This is a game that the Ravens need to win with just those two extremely established pieces. They outclass the Jags at these two critical spots everyday of the week but will that be enough to win in Florida?

I also see the Jags as dangerous – they would know that 0-3 looms and this team was thought to be in some playoff conversation and they were HORRIBLE in San Diego – discussions from several sources used words like “unprofessional” as they discussed the Jags this past week. I like Gabe’s preview of the game at a personnel level in his article preparing us for the Ravens trip to Jacksonville.

Ravens HC and QB must step up to stack another early season win for the Ravens. The schedule only gets harder from here for the Ravens – this looks like a must win for the Ravens as the Raiders and Redskins loom in the coming weeks. Those two teams should also be hungry to get right in week 3. Can the Ravens STAY right in week 3? We’ll see what the GameMap tells us on Sunday.

Andy Guyader
Andy Guyader

Dr. Guyader is the Owner / Founder of The Q5.com, which specializes in Football Visualizations and Drive Analytics. Additionally, Guyader has 10 years of Division I football experience coaching top-tier and historic programs. From guiding third round NFL draft pick Ramses Barden for four seasons at Cal Poly to converting 6-foot 10-inch lineman Ali Villanueva to wide receiver at the United States Military Academy at West Point, Andy knows how to coach on the field and how to game-plan in a meeting.

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