With two weeks left to decide the playoff field, the Baltimore Ravens have a lot working for and against them. While they can force their way into the postseason with minimal help, they face one of the most daunting schedules to end the year. Furthermore, given the tenuous state of head coach John Harbaugh’s, failure to reach the postseason could result in a major shakeup for one of the NFL’s most stable organizations.

As such, the Ravens have more than just a playoff berth at stake over their final two games.

Path to a playoff berth

Mathematically, the Ravens can still win the AFC North, but they need to take care of business on their end and hope for a complete collapse by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh needs only win the final two games on its schedule — a road tilt with the New Orleans Saints and a home finale versus the Cincinnati Bengals — to clinch the division title. While the matchup with the Saints looks daunting, Baltimore seems reasonably likely to split its final two contests and negate the damage. That leaves the Ravens in a battle for one of the conference’s two wild-card berths.

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And even on that path, a trip to the postseason will not come easy. Regardless of what happens with Pittsburgh, the Ravens can effectively stamp their ticket by winning their final two games, though neither projects as an easy victory. They travel to the West Coast for a Week 16 matchup with the surging Los Angeles Chargers, a game that will likely see superstar running back Melvin Gordon make his return from a knee sprain. A week later, Baltimore hosts the Cleveland Browns, a team that has won four of its last five games and could still have playoff aspirations of its own.

Because of the relative difficulty of the Ravens’ remaining schedule compared to that of their AFC wild-card competitors, a loss to either the Chargers or Browns has a strong probability of ending any playoff hopes in Baltimore.

Upside of playoff berth

Should the Ravens safely navigate the final two weeks of the regular season and secure a division title or wild-card berth, it will break a three-year playoff drought for the franchise. That alone could save Harbaugh, who reportedly could lose his job this offseason as part of the organizational shift already underway with impending promotion of Eric DeCosta to general manager.

But while Harbaugh could survive the season with a playoff berth, change could still come to his staff. While Don “Wink” Martindale has done a more than commendable job in his first season running the defense, offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg hasn’t held up his end of the bargain. The Ravens rank 15th in offensive DVOA entering Week 16 and have lacked dynamism until recently. That change, of course, came in the form of Lamar Jackson, who took over for an injured Joe Flacco in mid-November and hasn’t looked back. Jackson’s emergence has lifted the running game to No. 10 in DVOA, though the passing game hasn’t seen comparable improvement.

All of which could lead to a coordinator change this offseason. With Jackson entrenched as the future under center, the Ravens must put him in position to succeed and grow. Mornhinweg hasn’t done that consistently enough this season, and his background as a West Coast offense traditionalist doesn’t bode well for Jackson’s development. If Harbaugh hopes to extend his tenure in Baltimore well past 2019, finding the right coach to guide Jackson becomes paramount.

Upside to missing playoffs

While the Ravens could find the right offensive coordinator to develop Jackson, a strong 2019 season might well lead to that coach leaving for another job the following offseason. That would put Baltimore back to square one in terms of Jackson’s support system. Hitting the reset button on the entire staff and bringing in a progressive offensive mind to run the team might prove to be a better, more stable approach.

NFL teams pilfered most of the top offensive coordinators over the last two years, with Sean McVay, Matt Nagy, and Kyle Shanahan all receiving head-coaching gigs. Still, some good options remain, including New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. If those names don’t resonate with Ravens brass, they could dip into college where Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley, Purdue’s Jeff Brohm, and others run inventive offenses that make life easier for their quarterbacks. Landing one of those candidates would require considerable salesmanship from DeCosta, but Baltimore’s organization and roster provide plenty of enticement for a quality coach.

And recent history suggests that a new head coach could retain key assistants from the previous staff. This past offseason, Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy kept defensive coordinator Vic Fangio from his predecessor’s staff. That decision helped Chicago build the only defense consistently better this season than Baltimore’s. A new Ravens head coach could see the progress made under Martindale and opt to stick with him as defensive coordinator, easing the transition from the Harbaugh era.

Jason B. Hirschhorn
Jason B. Hirschhorn

Jason B. Hirschhorn is an award-winning sports journalist and Pro Football Writers of America member. He has bylines at NFL.com, SB Nation, Sports Illustrated, and other outlets.

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