Two Question Q&A On Machado

Recently we took a larger look at Manny Machado, and gave our perspective on the varying scenarios which exist with him and the Baltimore Orioles going forward. 

Here we’ve reached out to some Analysts outside of Charm City for their thoughts.

Those that contributed to this brief Q&A are:

Will Carroll
Anthony Castronvince (Sports on Earth, MLB Network)
Matthew Kory (Baseball Prospectus)
John Perrotto (Fan Rag, USA Today)
&
Matthew Pouliot (NBC Sports / Hardball Talk)

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board.)

Baltimore Sports and Life: Let’s move the calendar to October 2017.  Hypothetically, the Orioles have reached the post-season for the 4th time in 6 years, but did not win their first World Championship since 1983. The O’s have three alternatives (trade, extend, retain for ’18) with Manny Machado.  I think the contract ESPN’s Jim Bowden recently suggested (12 years, $396M, $33M AAV) is plausible – though it would also likely include multiple opt-outs and deferred money, and it’s not known if the O’s would give the opt-outs, or if Machado would accepted deferred salary. Should such an extension be signed, Baltimore fans will get to the see the HOF talent in an Oriole uniform throughout his prime. That’s not a bad alternative. I also think it’s realistic to build a team around him, with him commanding 20-25% of the team’s annual salary. That said, I tend to think the O’s would be better off with trading him. Getting back the best combination of ceiling, team control, and need + having his would be AAV to play with (which at a minimum could be used towards extensions with Britton, Schoop, and Gausman).

Your thoughts?

Carroll: Assuming Machado is willing to that deal ahead of a game-changing contract for Bryce Harper, I’d definitely lock him up long term. A trade is never going to get true value. The best trade we’ve seen in the past decade in terms of prospects was … Sale? There’s simply no other Machado out there so to give him up without a return of even a guaranteed starter puts the team on a downward path. 

Castronvince: Just to play devil’s advocate, a single player taking up upwards of 25% of your team payroll is dangerous even if he doesn’t have two knee surgeries in his not-too-distant past. Anyway, I don’t view a Machado extension as an especially realistic scenario for the O’s. At the moment, it’s hard to imagine him not exploring his free-agent worth in a market in which the Phillies and Yankees will be among the big-market clubs with enormous financial flexibility. So there might come a time when trading him makes sense, but the scenario you propose – a finish shy of a World Series title – might not be that time. I would envision them taking him into his walk year and seeing how the team fares, with the possibility of moving him at the ’18 deadline should the club go south in the standings.

Kory: In sports we love narrative, we love the intrigue associated with the single superstar player. But baseball isn’t basketball, hockey, or football, where a single guy can impose his will and carry his team to a championship. In baseball, it’s rarely about one guy. You need a team full of guys to win a World Series. With that said, Machado is a legitimately incredible talent and any team that has him on the roster takes several steps towards a World Series. The Orioles should try to keep him around, money be damned. If he would sign for a $33 million AAV over how ever many years they agree on, if I’m the Orioles, I do it in an instant.

The other thing to consider is, if they can’t sign Machado or decide not to and elect to trade him, do you trust the front office to get full value in a deal? I’m not sure I do. Partly because of who they are, but mostly because how do you get full value for Manny Machado? Look at the Chris Sale deal. The Red Sox traded the number one prospect in baseball, a Single-A pitcher who throws 105 mph, a potential top-100 outfield prospect, and a live arm for three years of Sale. That’s a heck of a package, but not one without its warts. Top prospect Yoan Moncada has incredible physical skills, but has rawness in many aspects of his game. 105 mph is impressive, but is Kopech Noah Syndergaard or is he Joe Kelly?

The Orioles best course of action is keeping Machado, and building around him.

Perrotto: I think the Orioles need to ascertain after this season whether they have a realistic chance of signing Machado, so they can plan for the future. He’s clearly one of the top five players in the game and his best years should be ahead of him. That being said, I’d have a hard time committing 10-12 years to any player because those contracts never work out in the latter years. Furthermore, though Machado has been very durable, he also has already undergone two major knee surgeries. I can’t help but wonder if that is going to take a toll on him as he gets older. If I’m the Orioles, I can’t go beyond eight years. If he wants more than that then it’s time to trade for him during the offseason.

Pouliot: If the Orioles were going to trade Machado, last winter was the time to do it; the return for two years of Machado would have been a whole lot better than what the Orioles would get for dealing him this winter. Still, my preference would be to keep him for $300 million-$400 million rather than move him. Having Machado occupy $35 million of a $160 million-$170 million payroll sounds pretty workable to me. Make every effort to get that done, and if it still doesn’t happen and you’re not in contention, you can flip him for a couple of top prospects at the 2018 trade deadline.

Baltimore Sports and Life: If Machado was traded prior to the 2018 season (and we assume he has ended ’17 still regarded as one of the 5 best all-around talents in the game); what teams do you think would be interested in pursuing him via a trade? What would you see as a realistic return, given his abilities and that he’d have just the one lone year of team control remaining? For teams that would want to pursue him should he hit Free Agency, how attractive should it be to obtain him a year ahead of time and build a relationship / comfort zone with him during ’18?

Carroll: Any team without a lockdown left side. The question is who has the prospects to go with the need. The Angels have the need but not the prospects. The Giants are in the same boat. The Brewers have the prospects, but probably couldn’t do the deal knowing what Machado wants long term. The Yankees would probably be the most likely if they miss out on Harper, but would the O’s be willing to take the long view and take lower level prospects? I wouldn’t.

Castronvince: Always hard to forecast that far ahead, of course, but the Mets (with David Wright’s future so murky) and the Braves strike me as two clubs that would have the right combination of need and resources. This is assuming the Braves would be ready to take a major competitive step forward. I do think there’s something to be said for establishing the comfort zone. We’ve seen those situations work out in the past. But in this specific situation (as well as that of Bryce Harper), because of the market conditions and the special nature of this free agency (a superstar-level talent in his mid-20s), I would suspect the player lands with the most motivated bidder, plain and simple.

Kory: It’s probably easier to list the teams who wouldn’t be interested in acquiring Machado than the ones who would. The thing about Machado is he can play third or shortstop so, it’s tough to find a team where he can’t fit into the lineup. Just about everyone would be interested, including the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Giants. So that’s the good news for Baltimore: there would be a robust market for his services.

The problem about getting Machado for 2018 though is at that point he’s close enough to free agency that he’s going to test the market, so you’re only getting one year out of him. That’s going to limit how much the Orioles can get in return. The White Sox got what they did for Sale because he had three years left on his contract. The Yankees got what they did for Andrew Miller because he had three seasons left on his contract. One year of Machado is valuable, but it’s not on the level of a Sale or probably even a Miller, just because of those team control issues. So… a very top prospect, and maybe a lower level prospect? If bidding gets hot and heavy maybe you’re looking at a top-100 prospect too? It would be a lot but it wouldn’t be as valuable to the organization as having Machado for the next decade.

Perrotto: I am sure just any team in the major leagues would have interest in Machado, especially because of his ability to also play shortstop. However, there aren’t many teams who can afford him. The one who can and would have a need on the left side of the infield are the Braves, Mets, Giants, Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers. A wild card could be the Marlins, depending on who winds up buying the team from Jeffrey Loria. I’m sure Machado would have interest in playing in his hometown of Miami and the next ownership might want to make a splash with the fans by signing him.

Pouliot: If the Orioles do decide to move Machado this winter and want the best possible return for him, they need to get comfortable with the idea of having the Yankees involved. The Bombers should have the best combination of payroll flexibility and top prospects to part with of any contender this winter. It’s easy to imagine some up-and-coming teams, like the Phillies and Braves, wanting to make a splash, but emptying the farm system for a guy who could leave after a year would be a huge risk. Sure, trading for him would likely give a team a significant edge in re-signing him in free agency, but it’s really just going to come down to who offers $400 million and the requisite opt outs.