Thoughts on Machado
The Baltimore Orioles have until Midnight tonight, to sign their 2010 1st round pick (and 3rd selection overall) HS SS Manny Machado.
O’s Amateur Scouting Director Joe Jordan is quoted in the Baltimore Sun today as stating he believes the negotiations will become significant this afternoon.
Rather clearly the O’s would haved liked to have had Machado signed earlier, but Machado’s Agent Scott Boras prefers to negotiate with the added deadline pressure.
The Orioles will make a significant effort to sign Machado, and eventually offer somewhere between $5 to $6.5M. Machado will have to decide if he wants to turn down that money to go to Junior College and reenter the draft next-year. That is an awful lot of money to turn down, especially when he does not figure to be able to raise his profile any further.
I think Machado signs tonight, with the news coming out right before or right after Midnight. If I am wrong, it would be a disappointment but life would move on. The O’s would gain a 1st-round pick in next year’s draft that would be a Top 5 selection as compensation for not signing him. Based off their likely season results for this year, they would have two Top 5 picks in ’11. There is some solace to take from that.
Let us say that Machado signs for $6M. The Orioles obviously liked the ceiling of Manny Machado better than the ceiling of Christian Colon. The O’s were certainly not alone in this estimation, as many (nearly all) independent 3rd-party talent evaluators had Machado ranked higher in a comparison between the two. Still Colon appeared on many boards as a Top 10 talent in his own right, and was drafted 4th overall by the Kansas City Royals, signing for $2.75M. If it takes $6M to sign Machado, was the talent difference between the two worth that $3.25M difference?
Would the difference in the signing prices of Machado vs. Colon have allowed for further ‘over-slot’ picks?
If Machado is not signed, and the O’s gain the two Top 5 picks in the ’11 draft – do the O’s value that higher than any over-slot that they may have obtained in-conjunction with drafting Colon?
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.
You can reach him via email at [email protected].