Going into play August 8th, the Baltimore Orioles ranked as listed in the following categories:
Runs 18th
Batting Average 23rd
On Base % 26th
Slugging % 17th
ERA 19th
Quality Starts 27th
WHIP 21st
Batting Average Against 21st
Defensive Efficiency 14th
If you were only looking at those numbers, and not watching the O’s play, you would be hard pressed to explain the O’s success. However, there are other things to note. The O’s are 32-25 on the road, and 22-19 vs. the East. Baltimore has won 11 straight 1 run games (22-6 overall), and 12 straight (12-2 overall) extra inning games.
Camden Depot recently wrote ‘What the Orioles 10-2 Extra-inning Record Means.‘ (http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2012/07/what-orioles-10-2-record-in-extra.html)
Using historical data from the past several years, Camden Depot came to the conclusion that an extra-inning record does not relate to the non-extra inning record. That makes sense to me, but I disagree with the notion that the 1 run, and extra-inning records are flukes. In the games where the O’s are not blown out, the bullpen is able to match-up and give the O’s a chance. When they get to extra-innings, the pen has been outstanding. I don’t see what is flukey about it. It seems easily explainable, and I reject the notion that is just an ‘engaging narrative.’
Likewise, I don’t think the O’s run-differential (currently -54) to be a fluke either. I do think it is explainable. I understand that one can point to the minimal accumulated fWAR of the roster, and use that as an encompassing argument. Obviously, even with the defensive efficiency numbers aside, this team has had defensive issues. The slugging overall has regressed, and on-base % all year has been an issue. To me, the primary reason for the current run-differential is that the O’s are only 27th overall in Quality Starts. I know discussing Quality Starts will make sabermetricians cringe, but even though the stat is flawed, it is fairly telling in it’s overall simplicity. Basically, more often than not, the O’s have not received enough competent starts. Several times a week, they are typically blown out. Due to that, the run differential blows up. In the games where they can keep it close, their formula for wins is matching-up with the pen.
As a whole, the numbers above collectively illustrate that the O’s have over-achieved in their first 111 games. None of that matters right now though, as those numbers are nothing but ‘white noise.’
What matters is that the Baltimore Orioles are sporting a 60-51 record overall, and are winners of 5 consecutive games. They are just 4.5 games behind the New York Yankees in the American League East, and are one of three teams (The others being the Oakland Athletics, and Detroit Tigers) tied for the two available Wild Card positions in the forthcoming AL Playoffs. What matters is that the O’s no longer have to play over their heads for 162 games, they just have to play well over the last 51. In a smaller sample-size like that, they absolutely have positioned themselves to make things extremely interesting the rest of the way. What matters is that the O’s have 7 game remaining head-to-head vs. the Yankees, giving the O’s an opportunity to control their own destiny in the East.
What matters is that when the O’s begin their 4 game series with the Kansas City Royals Thursday night, they will have their 2010 1st round Draft choice – Manny Machado – as part of the active 25 man roster. This is a move about winning now. A move about caring about the results of each individual day, knowing that each game the rest of the way might have a lot of importance.
Things just got real here in Charm City.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.