Terps Q&A with Drew Cannon, Basketball Prospectus

The start of a new era in Terrapins hoops is quickly approaching, beginning with Maryland Madness on October 14th. Baltimore Sports and Life has reached out to Drew Cannon from Basketball Prospectus for his thoughts on the Terps.

You can find Mr. Cannon’s work at:

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/
Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/bballprospectus
Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/DrewCannon1

Baltimore Sports and Life: “As Coach Turgeon nears the beginning of first year in College Park, the primary roster concerns revolve around the overall depth, and the Front Court in-general.

The late August arrival of 7’1, 225 lb Ukrainian Olexiy ‘Alex’ Len has the chance to help the Terps in both regards. While Len averaged 16ppg, 11.4 boards, 4.3 blocks at the 2010 U18 European Championships; I don’t think any Maryland fans are expecting that level of production. Beyond Len, the other three Maryland bigs are James Padgett, Berend Weijs, and Ashton Pankey. Each of them though is a pretty strong athlete, capable of running the floor athletically, and getting off the ground.

If these four collectively combine to provide consistent rebounding, and defense; can MD survive without a low-post scoring threat emerging?”

Cannon: “As long as Padgett and Pankey can rebound and defend, the Terps’ backcourt is strong enough to handle most of the scoring load. I’m a huge Terrell Stoglin fan, as a passer, as a shooter, and as a slasher. I think Sean Mosley finds confidence in seniority and is a thorn in the side of more than one ACC team. When Pe’Shon Howard and Nick Faust are your third and fourth backcourt options, you have quite the back-court.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Are you forecasting a complete rebuilding year, or do you see enough athleticism and talent on the roster where MD can compete? Competing as defined as a run at .500 in league play, and the potential for an at-large bid to the Tournament.”

Cannon: “I have Maryland at 7-9 in the ACC again, but an NCAA Tournament selection is certainly a reasonable goal, even if I wouldn’t predict it today. There are a lot of teams in the ACC who, like Maryland, have clear strengths and weaknesses: Virginia, Virginia Tech, Clemson, NC State, Miami without Reggie Johnson. I’d be unsurprised to see Maryland finish at the top or the bottom of that group.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “With 9 scholarship players, it does not really matter who starts, as each are going to have to play significant minutes. The interesting question is how do use the talent that is there? Turgeon has talked about using a 4 guard alignment, and the players that are on the roster seem built to run. However, ESPN’s Eamonn Brennan wrote a piece in May (http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/30825/maryland-hoops-is-about-to-hit-the-brakes) which used Ken Pomeroy’s database to compare the tempo difference of Turgeon at Texas A&M to Gary Williams at Maryland. Do you expect to see Maryland up and down the court, or do you think with the minimal depth that Turgeon will slow the ball down similar to his days with the Aggies?”

Cannon: “I think you’ll probably see something in between. Maryland’s four best players are all guards, so I’d be seriously considering a four-guard lineup. That said, Turgeon’s style is definitely slower. I expect Turgeon to use a lot of four-guard sets, and to let those guys run the floor as much as possible. If the fast break isn’t there, though, they’ll settle into Turgeon’s more patient, methodical offense. Don’t expect too many quick shots in the halfcourt, but there’s no reason to cut down on this team’s transition opportunities, either.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Turgeon’s A&M teams had the reputation of being  disciplined, playing tough physical defense, valuing possessions, getting high quality looks on offense, providing max effort, not doing things to beat themselves, and getting the most out of their abilities. Did Turgeon’s most recent A&M teams have more talent this Maryland team?”

Cannon: “Yes, but not significantly. Stoglin could be as good this season as Donald Sloan was in 2010 or Khris Middleton was in 2011. Turgeon hasn’t had to deal with a frontcourt this thin, though.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In previous interviews with Evan Daniels (National Recruiting Analyst, Scout.com) and Paul Biancardi (National Recruiting Director, ESPN) they were both very enthusiastic about the incoming Freshman Nick Faust:

Evan Daniels: “Faust is a flat-out scorer. He started out primarily a shooter with a quick release and deep range. But over the course of the last year he’s added an ability to attack the basket and despite his wiry frame finish through contact. I’d like to see him develop his mid-range game and continue to get stronger, but it’s hard to not be impressed with the overall make up of Faust’s game.”

Paul Biancardi: “He plays the game with high energy along with the natural ability to score the basketball in various ways. He can finish a break at the rim or with the jumper. In the half court he will make 3′s coming off screens or spotting up from his teammates penetration. He has shown the pull-up jumper along with a solid basketball IQ. At 6’6 I like his size to see over defenders and rebounding the ball. He is only 17 so he is young of age. With a strong work ethic, while hitting the weight room he can reach his potential, the talent is all there. Which means he is an All-ACC type of player in time.”

Do you see Faust as a talent that can consistently put up points as a Freshman?”

Cannon: “He’s certainly capable of scoring right away, given the chance. He could have some issues dealing with the physicality of major-conference college basketball, but Faust is an excellent shooter and that part of his game should be there regardless.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Pe’Shon Howard is not going to wow anyone with his athleticism, but he is a strong interior passer, and was regularly knocking down open 3’s as last year ended. I thought Howard ran the offense better than Stoglin in the ½ court, but Stoglin is better at creating. What do you like about Howard, what needs to improve?”

Cannon: “Howard can seem steadier because he plays slower, but he ran into more turnover problems than Stoglin did a year ago. I’d hand the keys to the offense to Stoglin, and treat Howard as a spot-up shooter and an elite secondary handler. Both are very effective passers, and putting two facilitators out there with a shooter like Faust and a crafty scorer like Mosley (and, for that matter, each other) could be very effective.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “SI’s Luke Winn recently wrote an article (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/08/10/sophomore.breakouts/index.html) which labeled Terrell Stoglin as the Sophomore most likely to breakout Nationally. As Winn pointed out, Stoglin had a stretch of 5 conference games in February where he averaged 23 ppg. For the year, he shot 46% from the floor, 36% from 3, 83% from the line, averaging 11.4 ppg for the year. The 6’1, 185 lb guard was a 2x ACC Rookie of the Week, and named to the ACC All-Freshman team. The negative aspect of his play, was that he often made poor decisions with the ball in his hands. For example, Stoglin never met a shot he didn’t like, which can be good and bad. I saw a guy that looked around and saw teammates that were not capable of putting the ball in the basket, and took the responsibility to score. I’m looking to see improvement from him playing off the ball, defensively, and getting his teammates involved. Do you think it is realistic to expect him to score in the high teens this year?”

Cannon: “All he needs is the minutes. There’s every reason to believe Stoglin can be a second-team All-ACC player. He shouldered a big portion of the offense while he was in the game and still shot 51 percent inside the arc and 36 percent beyond. He’s like Miami’s pairing of Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant in that way – you watch Stoglin and think he’s jacking shots, but he’s making such a high percentage that there’s really nothing to criticize. As for his point guard plat, he actually had a higher assist rate and a lower turnover rate than Howard last season. If he starts getting serious about defense, he could start deserving national mention.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “With the minutes available, combined with the athleticism that made him a Top 60 recruit coming into College Park, Sophomore SF Mychal Parker is my pick as the Terp that really emerges this coming year. Thoughts on him?”

Cannon: “I like Mychal Parker a lot – I’m taking Mosley as the breakout guy, though. Parker is an explosive athlete with the strength to give ACC defenders trouble. I’m not sure he’s a consistent enough finisher or a good enough shooter just yet to explode, but he’s certainly capable of being a strong rotation guy this year.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Mosley had a poor Junior year. There is no getting around that. He lacked confidence and it showed as his numbers decreased across the board from a very solid Sophomore season. Most of the Analysts we have spoken to point to the difference of being a 4th or 5th option as a Sophomore, to having the burden of trying to help carry the team as a Junior. Do you think with most people not expecting much from the Terps this year that helps him relax, and again find his game?”

Cannon: “Creative guys who pick their spots like Mosley can see huge jumps from a confidence boost. He’s smart and he works, even if he doesn’t have a fear-inducing jump shot or incredible athleticism. As a senior, I think Mosley takes command of this Maryland team and finds the confidence to be an effective second option.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Carolina figures to be dominating, Duke will be Duke. Mike Miller from NBC Sports told us that FSU and Clemson were the other ACC teams that interested him the most, and believed UVA could also be a Top 5 team in Conference play. Do you see the league similarly?”

Cannon: “I like Miami more and Clemson less. It’s still confusing to me that Reggie Johnson doesn’t have more supporters, and I don’t think it’s out of the question that he, Malcolm Grant, and Durand Scott are All-ACC at the end of the year (assuming Johnson’s back in time for the start of conference play). Clemson could be excellent, but there’s a lot of projection there. Milton Jennings and Devin Booker feel, to me, on the cusp of stardom, but not so much that I trust them to be stars in 2012. I’m taking the reserved approach on Clemson – but, if Jennings comes out of the gate hot, disregard this entirely.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In the Puerto Rico Tip Off, Maryland draws Alabama from the SEC  in the 1^st round, with the other teams in the field including Colorado, Purdue, Wichita State, Temple, Iona, and Western Michigan. Brief thoughts on Alabama and the field?”

Cannon: “That field is quietly awesome. Temple and Alabama are preseason Top 25 teams for me, and Wichita State isn’t far off. Western Michigan should challenge for the MAC title, Iona has Michael Glover, Purdue has Robbie Hummel, and Colorado has Andre Roberson. Alabama’s JaMychal Green is one of the best players in the country, period. He was first-team All-SEC last season, and he absolutely deserved it. He’s an outstanding post scorer and an excellent rebounder and shotblocker. If it weren’t for North Carolina and Kentucky, it wouldn’t be crazy to suggest that he and Tony Mitchell are the best frontcourt in the country.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In the BB&T Classic, the Terps will face Notre Dame at the Verizon Center in D.C., and will face Illinois in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. How do the Irish, and Fighting Illini currently project in the Big East, and Big Ten respectfully?”

Cannon: “Notre Dame returns just two of their starting five from a year ago in Tim Abromaitis and Scott Martin. Jack Cooley was very productive in limited time, and Eric Atkins at least looks to be a steadying hand at the point. Maryland has every reason to believe they’re a better team than Notre Dame. Illinois has a lot of pieces, if no star. Brandon Paul, Sam Maniscalco, D.J. Richardson, Meyers Leonard, and Tracy Abrams is a lineup with fewer question marks than most.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “We are not one game into the 2011-12 season, but many Terps fans are extremely excited about the prospects for Maryland starting with ’12-’13.

2012-2013 Roster as of today:
Guards: Stoglin (Jr), Howard (Jr), Faust (Soph), Allen (Freshman)
SF: Parker (Jr), Layman (Freshman)
Bigs: Padgett (Sr), Pankey (Jr),  Len (Soph), Cleare (Freshman)

Allen will give MD another capable PG, Layman is a SF, that is a Top 50ish player in ’12 Class, and Cleare is a Center that is a Top 40 player.

Should the Terps also add a Top PF (they are in the running for Top 15 overall players McGary and Jefferson), do you see the makings of a National Contender?”

Cannon: “I’d be awfully surprised if the Terps ended up with McGary, but it sounds like they’re very much in the running for Jefferson, and he’s quite a talent. A lineup of Stoglin-Faust-Parker-Jefferson-Cleare would have a ton of upside. Cleare is the rare big who is only slightly a project. Jefferson is rail-thin but always seems to be shooting open layups. Faust, with a little more weight, could be an elite player in the conference, and I think I’ve made my feelings about Stoglin clear by now. If things fall right – for them and for other teams – Maryland could compete with anyone in the ACC. I’m not saying they will, but they’re absolutely capable of it.”