The All-Star break has ended, and the 51-36 AL East leading Baltimore Orioles are in action tonight in Tampa Bay.

Several of BSL’s Orioles Analysts – Rob Shields, Zach Spedden, and Reggie Yinger – have come together to talk about the Birds. (Comments from our other O’s Analysts may be edited in later.)

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Baltimore Sports and Life: In 2012 Dylan Bundy was one of the premier prospects in all of baseball. That year he threw 105 combined innings. He missed all of ’13. He threw 41.1 innings in ’14. 24 innings in ’15.  We spent this past Winter stating the best case scenario was that he would stay healthy, and get in 75 innings of work during ’16. Hopefully showing month-to-month improvement. This Spring the O’s said 75 innings was the goal. We have seen steady progression from the young RHP, with O’s Manager Buck Showalter opting to give him additional rest (similar to a starter) between appearances. He has 38 ip so far here this year. Many want him moved to the rotation.  If he were to make 15 starts the remainder of the year – and be limited to 5 inning outings – he’d finish the year at +/- 115 innings.  Do you think the O’s should be willing to make him a starter now? (EDIT: It’s now been announced that Bundy will start Sunday vs. the Rays.)

Shields: It has been announced that he will start on Sunday against Tampa Bay. I don’t really think there is a right or wrong answer here. Bundy is a risk no matter what you do. He has proven that for 3 years in a row.  The Orioles have already “babied” him in the past and he still got hurt. The question is, how many innings can you reasonably expect him to give you while still performing well and staying healthy?  The answer is, who knows but we are about to find out.  Personally, I would keep him in the pen and be a little cautious with him but I don’t think what they are doing is wrong either.

Spedden: Making Bundy a starter works, if the Orioles limit his innings. The biggest questions are his health and whether his secondary stuff is up to par. It might take a few starts, but the change up and curveball should progress. His health, though, he needs to be monitored closely. 

Yinger: Not at this time, I believe 3-4 innings now vs. 3-4 innings as a reliever isn’t an upgrade. You are still limited to making his starts a bullpen game, while also changing his mindset from a reliever to a starter.

Baltimore Sports and Life: If all things were equal, Manny Machado would be one of the first five players anyone would choose to build around. Clearly the 24 year old looks capable of being a future Hall of Famer. As is, he’s a Free Agent after ’18.  Let’s say the O’s offer a 4 year extension (’19-’22) this Winter at $30M annually, with an opt out included, along with deferred money. What do you think the AAV would be for the remaining arbitration years? Do you think that overall contract will work? Do you see Machado wanting a shorter deal? A longer deal?

Shields:  Josh Donaldson signed a 2 year $28.65M extension this off-season.  That extension took up his remaining two arbitration years.  Manny made more this year, his first arbitration year, than Donaldson did in his.  You can argue that Donaldson has been the better player through their first four full years but Manny will still get more money because he’s younger and is still getting better. I would expect his last two arbitration years to be more in the $30-32 million range and however many FA years you can lock up, will average in that $32 million a year range.  I would think he wants a very long, Stanton-esque deal with an opt out after 5 or 6 years or sign a 5 year deal for huge money.  This is a deal that should get done and if we are to believe the recent report via ESPN’s Jim Bowden, as well as everything Machado has said publicly in the past, Manny wants this deal to happen.  

Spedden: The annual value is going to be high regardless. Personally, I’d prefer to see the Orioles take the route the Rays took with Evan Longoria, but it might be to late to pursue something like that with Machado. A deal similar to what Mike Trout signed with the Angels a few years ago (six years, $144m) might be a reasonable starting point.

Yinger: I think Machado will look to take a Mike Trout deal that is long term (6 years) and be team friendly.

Baltimore Sports and Life: There are multiple ways to build a team. Baltimore’s payroll this year is $147.7M. If the O’s stay at +/- $150M annually with their payroll for the foreseeable future, what plan do you think is best for the Orioles? Option 1: 20% +/- of annual salary tied up in Machado, locking up the HOF talent during his prime years, or Option 2: Trading him this off-season, getting back 4-5 high-level prospects, with minimal salaries, and long-term team control, and having Machado’s would-be $30M salary available for use elsewhere? Can either plan work?

Shields: Either plan can work. I believe in needing elite talent to win. I would prefer to sign him and trade off guys like Tillman and Britton. Those guys would fetch you good to excellent packages and we can use those young players to build with Manny, Schoop, Gausman, Bundy, et al…

Spedden: The best answer is to build around Machado. He’s one of the best players in the game, and regardless of the return, it’s going to be easier to win a title with him than without him. Others players, mainly Zach Brittion, could be discussed in trades, and the O’s could pick up some farm system help with draft pick compensation.

Yinger: I don’t trade Machado.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Matt Wieters is a Free Agent after ’16. Matt Trumbo is a FA after ’16. Chris Tillman is a FA after ’17. How do you think the O’s should and will handle things (in-terms of possible extensions) with this trio?

Shields: I think Trumbo and Wieters should get a QO.  I would be willing to give Trumbo a 3 year deal IF Manny is signed AND Trumbo’s salary doesn’t stop you from doing anything else down the road.  As for Tillman, his stuff is just too inconsistent from year to year and if he continues to pitch well this year, I look to trade him in the off-season, provided the return is very good.  If it’s not, you keep him for next year and see how he does and then decide whether you should offer a QO or a long term deal.

Spedden: Early guess is that Wieters signs a three or four-year deal elsewhere, Trumbo stays, and the O’s ride out Tillman’s current deal before deciding whether to pursue an extension with him. One thing that gives me pause is that Buck Showalter seems to be a fan of Wieters, and the O’s could always make him a DH if doesn’t last much longer behind the plate.

Yinger: None of these players warrants a long term deal. If anything, you could give Trumbo a two year deal, but he will want a Nelson Cruz type contract.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Fellow BSL O’s Analyst Paul Sporer recently reviewed Kevin Gausman here. What is your current evaluation of Gausman, and what do you expect from him going forward?

Shields: Gausman has been frustrating. The K and BB numbers are good. He is throwing a lot of strikes and missing a lot of bats. But he seems to always do just enough to lose. He is giving up way too many homers and seemingly doesn’t know how to pitch to right handed hitters. Against Seattle a few weeks ago, he had an at bat vs Nelson Cruz where he worked him up, in, down and out. It was a well pitched at bat.  He attacked all quadrants and eventually struck him out. But that has been rare. He appears to still be learning how to pitch. The O’s need him to be a lot better because right now, the only way I can describe him is frustrating.

Spedden: Gausman is, if nothing else, becoming a dependable starter. As long he stays healthy, he should provide some value, even if he never develops into an ace.

Yinger: Gausman is the best pitcher in the organization and the rotation. You can count on him to keep the team in the game during starts, but is limited to 5 innings because of his age. Additionally, he strikes out a lot of guys, which raises his pitch count.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Jonathan Schoop has quality bat speed, and plus power when he squares. At 2nd, he’s strong around the bag, has one of the (if not the) best arms at the position, and has livable range. His K% is down. His BB% is up some, but his OBP is still driven through batting average. Where do you rank the to-be 25 year old among 2nd baseman league wide?

Shields: He is probably in the 8-11 range. He has as much power as anyone at the position.  We will see if he can continue with the higher average. I am a bit skeptical but if he can be a 27/310/480 type guy, with solid defense, that makes him extremely valuable.

Spedden: Pretty high. Not at the top (Jose Altuve is there for me) but still fairly high on the list. If Schoop can have a few healthy seasons, he’ll have no problem settling in as one of the best power hitting second baseman in the league.

Yinger: Top 10 for me.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Since 2012 the O’s have consistently been a team with plus power, a quality bullpen, quality defense, a limited rotation, and below average on-base skills. Here in ’16, the power is extreme, the bullpen remains strong (1st in WPA, but there are match-up issues), the defense is good (4th overall in Defensive Efficiency… a more accurate statement is the infield defense is excellent, and the corner OF defense is not), the rotation is abysmal after Tillman and Gausman, and the on-base % (currently 8th overall) is improved.

The O’s being 15 over .500 is a surprise. The O’s being better than the preseason FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus (PECOTA) projections is not.

As the team profile has been similar for five years, why do the projections seemingly regularly underrate the O’s each Spring?  Something to the idea that defense (shifts, staffs with GB tendencies), bullpens, and power are not being properly evaluated by the systems?

Focusing on PECOTA for a second, we know that is a team projection based on the sum of individuals. To me, that seems inherently flawed. What I would like to see is PECOTA used to compile the individual forecasts, and that be part of the evaluation… then have BP’s staff have their own anecdotal observed knowledge / scouting of the overall roster added to the model, at-least as a percentage thereof. Would you like to see tweaks there?

Shields: I wrote about some holes I feel PECOTA has here. They don’t seem to account well enough for defense and the strength of a bullpen. It works for a lot of teams but certain teams it seems to consistently miss on. However, people need to remember that its just a projection system and it won’t always be right.  If they hit most of the time, that’s good enough for any projection system.

Spedden: This year I think it had to with suspect defense at the outfield corners, lack of high-OBP hitters, and the questionable rotation. Contrast that with the Rays, a team that always looks decent in these areas and yet underperforms PECOTA projections. Changing PECOTA to be more compatible with what you suggest probably would’ve had a fairer overview of the Orioles, but given the general mixed perception of the club this spring, it probably wouldn’t have had a sweeping effect on how the team was expected to perform.

Baltimore Sports and Life: The Orioles have a limited system. There aren’t legitimate internal answers to address the rotation issues (outside of potentially Bundy). There only figures to be so many starters available externally. Those that are, might not be obtainable for the O’s given the system limitations. At our site we’ve spent months talking about guys like Rich Hill, Andrew Cashner, and Jeremy Hellickson as potential options. Do you have a preference there? Are there others (Ervin Santana, Jon Niese, etc) that you like? Who do you see as the best fit, and who would give up if you were the O’s to obtain your choice?

Shields: I would go get Matt Moore. He has a lot of upside, is showing signs of getting back to his old self and he has a good contract for the next several years. Plus, he is left handed and that is an added bonus. He doesn’t figure to cost too much either because his ERA is still not strong and he has TJ surgery recently. I have no interest in Hill because I worry about the innings piling up.  Cashner does nothing for me unless we get him for essentially nothing. Hellickson wouldn’t be bad but again, he is a rental and I am not giving up much at all for him.

Spedden: Rich Hill. He has experienced in the division, could probably obtained for a reasonable price, and should sustain his success.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Without rotation upgrades, how does the season end for the O’s? 

Shields: Out of the playoffs. 82-85 wins.

Spedden: The AL East doesn’t have a dominant team and the trade market this year is weak, so I’d still give them a reasonable chance of winning the division. If Boston or Toronto finds a significantly improve itself, though, the wild card is probably a safer bet. Regardless,I still see them making the playoffs.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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