Overview

The O’s continue a rough early season schedule with yet another divisional matchup, this time with the Tampa Bay Ray. This will be the third of five conecutive series against division foes for the Orioles, and the end of a home stand as they travel to Boston for 4 games at Fenway later this week.

All five teams in the AL East are fairly close in terms of standings at this point, with no one team going on a hot streak (or cold streak) to start the season. As such, it will be important for the O’s to continue battling other AL East teams to keep themselves in good position in the division. After all, a win in April still counts in September, so the games are already mattering.

You can discuss this series on the BSL Board here.

Tampa Bay is getting it done in a familiar way this season. Their 7-5 record leads the AL East, and once again they are doing it with pitching. Of the Rays 13 games, only four have seen them score 4 or more runs. In those three games (on consecutive days) Tampa Bay scored 20 runs. Their other nine games have combined to yield just 11 runs. Over the past seven days the Rays have won games twice by a score of 1-0, and a third game 2-1. Their pitching keeps them in games much longer than their offense often deserves, and that gives them time to drive in a few key runs to win the game.

(September 12, 2012 - Source: Rob Carr/Getty Images North America)

(September 12, 2012 – Source: Rob Carr/Getty Images North America)

If the O’s want a series win, they’ll need to jump on the Rays pitching early.

That’s easier said than done though for an offense that hasn’t exactly performed to expectations early in 2014. The O’s are scoring just over 4 runs per game, but their feast or famine offensive trend seems to be making it difficult for the team to capitalize on good pitching when they get it. Case in point is Chris Tillman’s excellent 8 inning start ruined by to unearned runs. The O’s offense scored zero runs against Dustin McGowan who notched his first win since July 8th, 2008. For reference, George W. Bush was President of the United States the last time McGowan won a Major League Baseball game. On Friday, April 11th, he blanked the O’s offense for six and a third innings.

The O’s will face a mixture of young starters from Tampa Bay. They range from Chris Archer who threw about 2/3 of a season as a starter last year, to David Price who’s a perennial Cy Young candidate. Baltimore’s rotation will need to keep them in the game so the offense can grind out some runs against Tampa Bay’s solid pitching.

 

Matchup to Watch: O’s Sluggers vs. Price

Nelson Cruz has handled David Price exceptionally well over his career posting a triple slash of .360/.407/.760 against the left-handed ace. That’s the fifth best OPS among players with at least 20 at bats against Price.

Sixth best on that list is Oriole catcher Matt Wieters who has hit .368/.415/.605 against Tampa’s best starter. Typically the right side is where Wieters excels, so it’s great to see him have such success over a strong lefty like Price.

Adam Jones on the other hand has struggled against Price hitting just .220/.238/.293 in 42 plate appearances. He’s not the only Oriole that Price has owned. Chris Davis has yet to get an extra base hit against Price, posting a triple slash of just .267/.353/.267 against him.

 

Matchup to Watch: Ryan Flaherty vs. Tampa Bay

With Machado still on the shelf, the O’s will rely on Ryan Flaherty throughout this series. Unfortunately his overall stats against the Rays are a disappointing .077/.100/.103 in 41 plate appearances. Granted, Flaherty has performed better against Tampa Bay in Camden Yards than Tropicana Field (in 24 plate appearances he’s hit .043/.043/.087 against the Rays in their home ballpark), but it’s not much better here at home.

Flaherty will have to turn his early career woes against Tampa Bay around as the O’s figure to rely on the young infielder throughout this series, and this season.

 

Pitching Matchups

4/14 – Chris Archer vs. Wei-Yin Chen

Archer in 2013: 9-7, 128.2 IP, 7.06 K/9, 2.66 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9, 3.22 ERA, 4.07 FIP

Chen in 2013: 7-7, 137 IP, 6.83 K/9, 2.56 BB/9, 1.12 HR/9, 4.07 ERA, 4.04 FIP

4/15 – Jake Odorizzi vs. Miguel Gonzalez

Odorizzi in 2013: 0-1, 29.2 IP, 6.67 K/9, 2.43 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9, 3.94 ERA, 3.89 FIP

Gonzalez in 2013: 11-8, 171.1 IP, 6.30 K/9, 2.78 BB/9, 1.26 HR/9, 3.78 ERA, 4.45 FIP

4/16 – David Price (LHP) vs. Chris Tillman

Price in 2013: 10-8, 186.2 IP, 7.28 K/9, 1.30 BB/9, 0.77 HR/9, 3.33 ERA, 3.03 FIP

Tillman in 2013: 16-7, 206.1 IP, 7.81 K/9, 2.97 BB/9, 1.44 HR/9, 3.71 ERA, 4.42 FIP

 

The Opponent (wRC+ for 2013)

C- Ryan Hanigan, 53 WRC+
1B- James Loney, 118 wRC+
2B- Ben Zobrist, 115 wRC+
3B- Evan Longoria, 133 wRC+
SS- Yunel Escobar, 100 wRC+
LF- Matt Joyce, 112 wRC+
CF- Desmond Jennings, 112 wRC+
RF- Wil Myers, 131 wRC+
DH- David Dejesus, 103 wRC+

BENCH- Molina, Forsythe, Guyer, Rodriguez
ROTATION- Price (LHP), Cobb (DL), Archer, Odorizzi, Moore (DL), Bedard (LHP)
BULLPEN- McGee (LHP), Gomes, Ramos (LHP), Bell, Balfour, Lueke, Peralta, Beliveau (LHP)

 

2013 Ranks

Tampa Bay
Batting Average- 12th
Runs- 11th
Home Runs- 11th
wOBA- 7th
wRC+- 5th
K/9- 3rd
BB/9- 16th
HR/9- 12th
ERA- 12th
FIP- 8th

Baltimore
Batting Average- 10th
Runs- 5th
Home Runs- 1st
wOBA- 8th
wRC+- 10th
K/9- 26th
BB/9- 14th
HR/9- 30th
ERA- 23rd
FIP- 29th

Jeff Long
Jeff Long

Jeff was the owner of the Orioles blog Warehouse Worthy, which focused on making advanced statistics a part of the conversation for the average fan. Outside of baseball, Jeff is a graduate of Loyola University where he received his Bachelor’s and Master’s in Business Administration. The Maryland native currently works for an Advertising Agency in downtown Baltimore. Previously a contributor to Beyond the Boxscore, he joined Baseball Prospectus in September 2014. You can reach him at [email protected].

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