Ravens Prospect Series: Justice Hill

This is a series looking at some of the players on the Baltimore roster with less than 500 career offensive or defensive snaps who weren’t drafted in 2020.

There’s no easy way to put this: Drafting J.K. Dobbins effectively caps Justice Hill’s role on this offense into a hurry-up offense package.

Hill’s rookie season was a little below par compared to the standards of Ravens backs, as he finished with just 13 DYAR and a -2.6% DVOA. Those numbers aren’t shabby for most players, but in the context of the wild rushing attack that hoisted Baltimore last season, it was a bit of a disappointment. Using Lamar Jackson to help subdue the box, Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards both finished in the top 10 in DVOA. Hill was a clear third option, and almost 66% of his snaps were on passing downs making him mostly one-dimensional. Hill was also a bit of an empirical  disappointment as a receiver, although he was targeted just 15 times and a lot of them were dumpoffs on blitzes. 

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It is worth pointing out that Hill’s broken tackles per touch remained fairly high. With 66 touches and 11 broken tackles — a small-sample size rate, but one that fits comfortably into the middle of the pack among NFL backs. He also showed a lot in the last two games of Baltimore’s regular season, when he played more as Ingram rested. Every pass he caught in the last two games went for a first down. He also averaged 4.8 yards per attempt in those two games, and ran for a couple of touchdowns. 

So with that in the books, and coming off one of his highest-snap games as a Raven in the playoff loss at Tennessee, I was kind of looking forward to seeing what Hill could do in a bigger role. So was John Harbaugh:

Now, running backs get hurt every year. There’s definitely plenty of chance Hill gets some run this year, but it is slightly disappointing that he’s only going to be a game-script player after some of his big runs down the stretch. It was a rough rookie season and Hill could improve between the tackles, but there was a lot of upside for him even with a fourth-round pick. He toted enough of the load on that in college that Football Outsiders’ BackCAST scores pegged him with a C.J. Spiller comparison. (Speaking of backs who struggled a bit in their initial role in the NFL and had to find a more perfect niche…) Hill and Spiller also share the trait of speed: 4.40 40-yard dash for Hill, 4.37 for Spiller. 

https://www.mockdraftable.com/embed/justice-hill

Hill with the Ravens right now is a stylistic novelty. The Ravens want to pound the rock, have the quarterback that opens that up in every way, and have a defense good enough to maintain leads on most other teams. They are built to be a sustaining offense, and, as we saw against the Titans, had a bit of an identity crisis when they were asked to do something different. 

What Hill can be — and may need to be in some big games for the Ravens — is a back who can change the complexion of the game as a receiver. He didn’t really do that against the Titans. He played solid football, yes, but they weren’t bleeding every time they left him open like the Ravens needed. As good as Dobbins is, Hill offers the offense a little more flexibility in sets like this right now and the scatback role is something that may take Dobbins a half-season or so to grow into. 

With COVID-19 potentially shortening training camps and perhaps simplifying the amount of time coaches have to be comfortable, I think Hill may have bought himself enough time to make an early impression. But it’s going to have to be a massively good one for him to carve out a real role in this backfield. Last year, he was the one who came on late. This year, if anyone, it will probably be Dobbins as he gets more used to the scheme. 

Rivers McCown

Ravens Analyst

Rivers McCown is a writer and editor who has written for ESPN.com, Bleacher Report, USA Today, and Deadspin, among other places. He’s edited for Football Outsiders, Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue.

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