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Michael Pierce, perhaps good news on the ankle injury 

I’m going to get into Lamar Jackson and his mind-boggling athleticism in depth shortly. But first, the injury to Michael Pierce. X-Rays were negative on his ankle and at the time of publishing this, Coach John Harbaugh has called this “day to day, not long term.” Appears he has dodged the worst, but we won’t know yet if he’ll play this Sunday, or how long “day to day” could last.  He was pulled from the Bengals game in the first quarter and the Bengals went for 3.9 yards per carry on the day. Not bad, but it’s the worst rushing offense in the league. The Ravens allowed them to go for 157 yards on the ground on 40 attempts.

Historically, when Brandon Williams has gone down, inferior running backs have had decent days, and good backs, specifically bigger backs, have run amok. Have to think that any missed time by Pierce could have the same effect.

Michael Pierce ranks second among DL who have played at-least 100 run snaps in run stop percentage at 11.7. Over 10.0 is really good. The Texans DJ Reader, who we’ll see this week, leads that bunch at 12.8. Brandon Williams is only at 5.1 this year. Neither Williams or Pierce are great pass rushers.

I’ve mentioned often the way to beat high powered offenses is to run the ball, control the clock, keep the oppositions playmakers off the field where they can’t score. It’s been a very long time, if ever that we’ve been able to say this, but the way to beat the Ravens, is to run the ball and keep their best playmaker off the field. Any time Pierce misses could be detrimental, and the Ravens in a situation where they have to score in bunches, quickly. Not every team is the Bengals and will let you do that.

The MVP talk about Lamar Jackson is officially warranted

My last article I talked about how the counting stats and the rate stats need to improve for Lamar Jackson to stay in the MVP conversation. Also, that there is a little something extra that stats don’t measure that keeps him in the conversation. Something almost magical.

Well yesterday, he responded. Perfect passer rating. Two incompletions and one was a spike to stop the clock. 13.1 Y/A through the air. 9.3 Y/A on the ground. Four total TDs. A TD run we haven’t seen from a QB since Michael Vick torched the Vikings with his magic in a 2002 walk-off.

Everything he does in the run game is fast and deceptive. I’ve watched football for a long time. Once in a while a play action fake or option will be really good that it fools me. Jackson is doing it multiple times, weekly. Whether it’s play action, or option, he often fools us. I swore what started the dazzling run yesterday was a handoff to Mark Ingram. So did the defender six feet away from the ball. Couple that deception with his speed! Forget it. My buddy said when that run happened, that we’ll see for the rest of time, that Jackson is playing NFL Blitz while the other guys are playing Madden. Couldn’t agree more. Other teams have top tier athletes, smart, know their playbooks inside and out, they are real good football guys. Then here comes Lamar Jackson. Make the Ravens start with 1st and 30 every drive? No problem. Don’t matter. He’ll hurdle and spin and juke and shift to another gear that no one in Madden football or equivalent simulators has.

Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson? Eat your heart out. 

Is how most teams evaluate quarterbacks, now ancient thinking?

It’s something we’ve heard mentioned by the team, and on broadcasts the last few weeks. The Ravens stopped trying to find the next Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. Teams that keep trying to do this, can’t, and fail, and it sets their teams back. Long story short, you have to find guys who fit what you want to do. It’s not even really some revolutionary concept. It’s just playing to your strengths. Working together instead of trying to fit square pegs in round holes.

I went on record prior to the 2018 draft when we knew five quarterbacks were going to go in the first round, or first and early second. Long story short, I liked Josh Allen the most out of the group. I thought he reminded me of Aaron Rodgers but taller. He is athletic, can throw on the run, played in frigid temps at Wyoming, so he’s built hard. I thought Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen were just okay guys at best. I thought Lamar Jackson would be good given the right system. Looks about right. I thought Baker Mayfield was a bust. Thrived on hitting very wide-open targets in a spread out, talented Oklahoma offense. Can’t make tough throws.

Jury is still out on all of this. We are not even through the second year of that class and it really should take about four years to grade a class. Some guys have to wait their turn, some guys develop at different rates, some guys have to play for Adam Gase.

But when experts, the old hats that fill your TV screen for the last 20+ years talk about quarterbacks they talk about what? Size, accuracy, mechanics, poise, velocity, leadership, and the dreaded “prototypical”. But one look at a scouting report and it can be paralysis by analysis.

Here is a snippet of Josh Rosen’s scouting report you can find on NFL.com.

Four Strengths (out of 20)

Anchors in pocket

Trusts his protection…when pressure mounts from the edge

Extremely confident and intelligent

Best back shoulder thrower in the game

Four Weaknesses (out of 18)

Poor mobility

Struggles to elude early pressure

Decision making and post snap reads are inconsistent

Arm talent…below average

Guys. What the hell are we looking at? Does Rosen trust his protection, or does he not feel pressure at all? Can he tell you the square root of 784 but can’t tell cover-2 from cover-3? Is he the best at dropping the ball in a bucket, but that’s all he can do?

I assure you, other players reports can read just the same. One of Lamar Jackson’s strengths was, “Delivers the ball with a flick of the wrist.” Weakness. “Flips the ball rather than throws it.”

I could go on and on, but the point is the Ravens wanted to run the ball more. So, they got a guy who can do that. Helps that he can throw when necessary (understatement). Maybe they didn’t worry about if his release point is low. Or if he doesn’t slide to give himself up enough. Or if he is too thin for the hits he takes. Or if he looks lackadaisical in his setup. All of these are negatives on his scouting report that just seem silly. Release point is low? How about, can throw from different angles. Doesn’t slide? How about tough as nails. Too thin? How about at 21-years old has time to bulk up. Lackadaisical? How about cool and calm.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Moving on. 

Playoff seeding and upcoming schedule

Currently the Ravens sit at #2 in the AFC. Control their own destiny for a first-round bye and at least one home playoff game. At 7-2 they are one game behind the Patriots (8-1) for the #1 seed and home field throughout. They are one game ahead of the Houston Texans (6-3) who they play this coming Sunday.

New England’s schedule isn’t as easy over the next four weeks as it had been to start their season. The have @ PHI, vs. DAL, @ HOU, vs. KC. The way the Ravens embarrassed them, there could be a loss or two in there. At least some closer games than those blowouts they had before.

The Ravens next four games are no easy task either. vs. HOU, @ LAR, vs. SF, @ BUF. This upcoming matchup with Houston is very big to retain the #2 seed, and not give up the tie breaker to Houston should it come down to that. I’m not impressed with the Rams all of a sudden. But will they be a bad matchup for the Ravens given the beef in the middle of their defensive line. San Francisco will be interesting. At Buffalo looked tough before, tough environment. But they lost recently at home to the Eagles, and just lost on the road at the Browns. Feel like that is a must win.

We can’t be upset if the Ravens go 3-1 over the next four, and if one of the three wins is over Houston. It would be a bonus if the Patriots go 2-2 over their stretch and the Ravens are in the driver’s seat with vs. NYJ, @ CLE, and vs. PIT needed to clinch the #1 seed.

Patriots finish with @ CIN, vs. BUF, vs. MIA. So, the number of losses they have after week 14 vs. KC, is what they will finish with. I think the Ravens need to be 13-3 or better to get homefield throughout. If the Patriots roll to 15-1, 14-2, well good on them. Expecting the Ravens to win out at 14-2 is far too much to expect.

A look at Houston 

Vegas is being generous making the Ravens a -4.5 point favorite this week. It’s a battle for MVP candidates, Lamar Jackson obviously, and Deshaun Watson. Watson made his case with the numbers, but also throwing a TD after getting a cleat in the eye. Jackson just made his case with the afore mentioned 47-yard highlight reel run against the Bengals.

The Ravens like to run it, and the Texans like to take it away. Baltimore runs for 197.3 yards per game. Houston allows just 84.1 yards per game. They held Christian McCaffery to 93 yards on 27 carries. Held Leonard Fournette to 47 yards on 15 totes, then in their second meeting 40 on 11. Held impressive rookie Josh Jacobs to 66 yards on 15 carries. It’s going to take some creativity to run the rock against them. Talent alone won’t do it. Unless your name is Lamar Jackson. You can game plan for him. You physically might not be able to catch him though.

The other threat the Texans pose is Deandre Hopkins. He is the third most targeted receiver in the league, and second in receptions behind the Saints’ Michael Thomas. Marlon Humphrey needs to be on his “A” game similar to when he covered Julio Jones a year ago, holding him to two catches and 18 yards on eight targets. Hopkins has been limited this year once the ball is in his hands, posting just 9.8 yards per catch, and only 3.1 yards after catch.

Make Watson beat you in other ways. Take away his safety blanket named Hopkins. Get creative in the run game. Let Lamar Jackson keep on doing his thing.

Mike Randall
Mike Randall

Ravens Analyst

Mike was born on the Eastern Shore, raised in Finksburg, and currently resides in Parkville. In 2009, Mike graduated from the Broadcasting Institute of Maryland. Mike became a Baltimore City Fire Fighter in late 2010. Mike has appeared as a guest on Q1370, and FOX45. Now a Sr. Ravens Analyst for BSL, he can be reached at [email protected].

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