The Ravens are coming off a disappointing overtime loss in Cleveland in which their offense completely disappeared, and will have to attempt to rebound in their third consecutive road game against the 3-2 Titans who are also coming off a tough road loss. The Titans will actually present a very similar challenge to what the Ravens faced in the Browns last week; they have a very good defense and an offense led by a QB who is able to make plays when things start to break down. Hopefully, the Ravens coaches can learn from the previous week and make the right adjustments on offense, so they can improve on last week’s dismal 25% third down conversion rate.
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The Titans are somewhat offensively challenged, ranking 28th according to DVOA and not much better if we look at traditional statistics coming in at 26th and 29th in total and scoring offense, respecitvely. QB Marcus Mariota dealt with an arm injury earlier in the season which may partly explain his less than stellar play to this point, but it is not just the passing game that has struggled in Tennessee. Lead RB Derrick Henry is averaging 3.4 YPC and Dion Lewis who averaged 5 YPC in 2017 is also struggling with a paltry 3.2 average. Overall, the Ravens have done fairly well defending the run this year, but at times they have allowed opponents to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground, and have especially struggled when they are in sub packages. I think Dion Lewis is the more dangerous back for the Titans because he is more versatile and explosive, and the Ravens will have to be wary of draw plays and screens when he is in the game. Ravens powerful DT Michael Pierce has not been practicing this week and seems unlikely to play on Sunday leaving the defensive line a little thin against a Titans team that will probably try to run the ball.
Against the pass, the Ravens have been quite good this season despite a few hiccups from time to time. CB Jimmy Smith will be back for his second game after a serving a four game suspension to start the season, and his presence will certainly help against the Titans who have one of the better young WRs in the league in Corey Davis. I would expect either Smith or 2nd year CB Marlon Humphrey to shadow Davis for much of the game. Aside from Davis, the Titans are somewhat talent deficient at the WR position, as Rishard Matthews left the team earlier in the season. Taywan Taylor is more of a slot receiver, but aside from the week 2 struggles against Cincinnati, nickel CB Tavon Young has done very well for the Ravens, even notching a highlight reel interception last week in Cleveland. I would expect the Ravens secondary to hold up quite well, but it will need to have some support from the pass-rush and a concerted effort to contain Mariota who can make plays with his legs.
When the Ravens have the ball, they may have a good opportunity to try to right the ship especially regarding the rushing attack. According to DVOA the Titans run defense is below average ranked 20th in the NFL, and they are letting up 4.4 YPC on the ground. Neither Alex Collins nor Buck Allen are averaging even 4 YPC and the explosive plays we saw last season out of Collins have been completely missing. Part of the explanation for this ineffectiveness surely lies with the offensive line, but the play-calling has also slanted heavily towards passing the ball this season so the OL is not really able to get into a good rhythm of wearing down the opposing defense. That doesn’t mean the Ravens should completely step away from passing the ball, but I think a 60/40 split would be healthy for the offense. More than anything situational play-calling on offense needs to improve if the Ravens want to get more consistent.
When the Ravens do pass the ball, they will have to once again focus on protecting Joe Flacco. The line was excellent in pass-blocking two weeks ago in Pittsburgh, but struggled at times against Cleveland. The Titans do have a formidable pass-rush led by veteran DT Jurrell Casey and rookie OLB Harold Landry. Of course, it must be mentioned that the Titans Defense is coached by former Ravens DC Dean Pees, so no matter how the Ravens offense fares in this one I am sure there will be plenty of discussion reminiscing about his coaching style.
This is going to be another tough game for the Ravens mostly because the offense has struggled recently to score TDs, and the running game has to demonstrate any level of effectiveness. I think the Ravens defense is good enough to carry the team against another poor offensive team, but the Ravens will have to play a clean game and not turn the ball over. In the end, I expect a close game and an ugly win for the Ravens, 19 – 16.
Ravens Analyst
Gabe is an avid fan of the NFL and Ravens football. He grew up in Westminster, MD, and attended college at Johns Hopkins University majoring in Biology. He earned his Ph.D. in Molecular Biology from the University of California, Los Angeles, and now works as a R&D Scientist developing Transplant Diagnostics assays. Gabe has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan.