It was about a week and a half ago that I previewed the MLB playoffs, and while it was fun to look ahead and attempt to envision how things would go, it’s always embarrassing to look back and see where you were wrong.
This is why I wrote the line “predictions are foolish and usually wrong, because sports are, you know, unpredictable.” It was a wink and a nod to the fact that I was probably going to get some things wrong, so go easy on me.
Perhaps more foolish than making predictions in the first place is to then go and point out where you were wrong. After all, it’s not like anybody is making me do so, and people have short memories. But then again, I believe in transparency so I’m prepared to, like Clayton Kershaw, take my medicine. “No excuses.”
And actually, the predictions weren’t wholly terrible. They were only half-terrible. After the Houston Astros finally dispatched the plucky Tampa Bay Rays in Game 5 on Thursday night, I ended up perfect in the AL. The NL ended up being my personal bizarro-world. I got everything wrong, and as a consequence we are now faced with the wild-card-winning Washington Nationals against the St. Louis Cardinals — who managed to win the NL Central with only 91 wins – in the NLCS.
But since I’m a glutton for punishment, let’s look ahead to the two championship series and try to ascertain how things will go down there. Why not?
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
NLCS:
Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Game 1: Friday, at St. Louis, TBS
Dodgers fans like to refer to the Cardinals’ postseason play as “Devil Magic”, which is understandable given their recent history against the team. The youthful Atlanta Braves got a taste of that in their five-game series, splitting their first four games despite outscoring the Cardinals 16-13. Then in Game 5, Mike Foltynewicz, who had pitched so brilliantly in Game 2, turned into a raging dumpster fire, getting only one out while surrendering seven runs. Max Fried came in and also melted down, allowing four more runs, and it was all over.
Back to Devil Magic, Dodger fans spent Wednesday night and most of Thursday making voodoo dolls of Kershaw and manager Dave Roberts. They ran over the former’s jersey in the parking lot and called for the latter’s head on the internet, a peak display by a group that often comes across as entitled but also understandably frustrated by another great season ruined by a bitter postseason chaser. And in fairness to the angry fans, Roberts did make some questionable moves, including using Kershaw with a dominant Kenta Maeda available, and handing a second inning to Joe Kelly with a resurgent Kenley Jansen available.
In fact, there are some comparing Roberts to Grady Little – ouch.
The fact of the matter is that the Nationals are a very good team, a team that scored nearly as many runs as L.A. during the season, led by Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto and those irritating speedsters at the top of the order, Trea Turner and Adam Eaton. It’s also a team that has Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg backed by wily mid-rotation veteran Anibal Sanchez – if Patrick Corbin can figure things out, watch out.
St. Louis, meanwhile, has gotten most of its offense from Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna, with a dash of Tommy Edman. And while their rotation is thin after Jack Flaherty (at least compared to Washington’s), their bullpen is stronger. And you know Yadier Molina makes all of them better.
The Nats won’t walk all over the Cardinals, but in a seven-game series their rotation and offensive depth will help them defeat the Devil Magic, much to the chagrin of Bryce Harper.
Winner: Nationals
ALCS:
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros
Game 1: Saturday, at Houston, FOX
Where madness has prevailed in the National League postseason so far, the AL has been cool, calm and collected.
The powerful Yankees brushed aside the Minnesota Twins with ease, scoring 23 runs in a three-game sweep and winning those games by an average margin of 5.3 runs. The Yankees made it look easy, and while it had nothing to do with Devil Magic or with their recent postseason mastery of the Twins, what was perhaps a bit surprising was how easily they shut down a Minnesota offense that slugged an MLB-record 307 home runs during the regular season.
The Twins did go deep four times in the series, but didn’t manage much else in compiling a slashline of .218/.301/.396. Meanwhile, Masahiro Tanaka was great, Luis Severino managed four-scoreless innings and the bullpen was again very good.
In the other half of the matchup, the Astros, who won a MLB-best 107 games this season, were pushed to the limit by Tampa Bay, unable to dispatch the Rays until Gerrit Cole shut them down in a brilliant 6-1 win in Game 5 on Thursday night.
The heavily-favored Astros took a quick 2-0 series lead, but the Rays responded by pounding Zack Greinke in Game 3 and getting enough against Justin Verlander to make a winner of Ryan Yarbrough (one of six pitchers used) in Game 4 and knot the series. That undoubtedly mucked up Houston’s ALCS rotation plans, forcing them to use Cole in Game 5, instead of against the Yankees in Game 1. This chips away at one of Houston’s big advantages and shifts pressure to the bullpen, which isn’t terrible (8th in the MLB in WAR via Fangraphs) but doesn’t stack up to the Yankees’ relievers (1st).
Both of these teams have frighteningly good offenses. But while the Yankees blasted 306 home runs (second only to the record-setting Twins), the Astros are dominant top to bottom. Houston led all of baseball in both walk rate (10.1 percent) and strikeout rate (18.2 percent), as well as batting average (.274), on-base (.352) and slugging (.495.). They are, in a word, relentless.
This series can be close if the Yankees are able to take advantage of the chaos the Rays injected in Houston’s rotation situation, and if they can consistently hand leads over to that bullpen. But in a long series, the better team should come out on top. Verlander and Cole are going to get their chances to pitch, after all, and Greinke probably won’t be as bad as he was in Game 3 of the ALDS.
Winner: Astros
Orioles Analyst
Bob Harkins is a veteran journalist who has worked as a writer, editor and producer for numerous outlets, including 13 years at NBCSports.com. He is also the creator of the Razed Sports documentary podcast and the founder of Story Hangar, a network of documentary podcasters.