Previewing The 2018 Preakness Stakes
The second leg of the Triple Crown is this Saturday, with the 143rd running of the Preakness.
Baltimore takes the stage, as we see if Justify can follow-up on his Kentucky Derby victory.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
1) Quip: 12-1
Likely the best of the “new shooters” (horses that skipped the Derby to run here at Pimlico), Quip won the Tampa Bay Derby at 19-1, and finished second to Magnum Moon at the Arkansas Derby. His best races don’t really measure up to Justify or Good Magic’s best, but he should be plenty competitive on Saturday.
2) Lone Sailor: 15-1
Lone Sailor ran 8th in the Derby, and seemed to be making up some ground before tiring in the deep stretch. He’s won over a wet surface before (his only win, in fact), so that shouldn’t be an issue for him on Saturday. He should be closing late, so if the speed doesn’t hold, who knows, he could shock the world.
3) Sporting Chance: 30-1
D. Wayne Lukas is attempting to win his 7th Preakness, which is an amazing feat. If he pulls that off with this horse, it’ll be even more amazing. He did win the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga as a two year old, but that form hasn’t translated to his three year old season, as he’s been far behind horses like Good Magic, My Boy Jack, Flameaway and Magnum Moon. I don’t see it on Saturday.
4) Diamond King: 30-1
The winner of the Local Preakness prep, the Tesio, always enters the Preakness but rarely makes an impact. This horse is John Servis’ return to glory. He was the Trainer of 2004 Derby & Preakness winner Smarty Jones. I can only assume that this crew is just looking to pick up a 3rd or 4th place check at best. Pass.
5) Good Magic: 3-1
The Derby runner up looks like he’s the only legit challenger to Justify here. He hasn’t done much wrong in his career, finishing in the money in all 6 starts, including a win in last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile. Trainer Chad Brown is the defending Preakness champion, as Cloud Computing won it last year at 14-1. He chased Justify all the way around the muddy track in Louisville and likely will do the same thing here in Baltimore. We’ll see if he can get over the hump.
6) Tenfold: 20-1
He’s only run three races in his career, but this well bred son of Preakness winner Curlin looks to be the real deal. Just not yet. i really think he’ll be a threat later in the Summer in races like the Haskell or Travers Stakes. i wouldn’t be shocked if he picked up a piece here at the bottom of your exotics, but i’m more interested in seeing how he looks down the line.
7) Justify: 1-2
He just might be a monster, it’s that simple. There are some small concerns about a foot injury, but Bob Baffert has done his best to squash that since the morning after the Derby. He’s 2-2 in the mud as well, so that shouldn’t hurt him if the weather is what we expect it to be on Saturday. It’s just really hard to find any weaknesses so far. Will be tough to beat.
8) Bravazo: 20-1
Lukas’ stronger entry ran pretty well in the Derby, finishing 6th and getting a 91 Beyer Speed figure. He appears to be improving, but i’m not sure he measures up to the best in here. Could get a piece of the Trifecta though for sure. I’ve seen worse longhsots, that’s for sure.
Not sure how to make money in this race to be honest, as it looks like Justify/Good Magic all day.
That’s no fun though, so let’s bet Justify straight over a few longshots:
$200 Exacta Justify/Quip
$200 Exacta Jusitfy/Tenfold
$100 Exacta Justify/Bravazo
The Belmont will be much more exciting I think!
Seth, a die hard fan of Orioles Baseball and Tar Heel Basketball has been in the gambling industry for 20 plus years. He's been trying to find the secret to picking winners even longer than that. Seth lives in Eldersburg Maryland with his wife and two children.