Pre- NCAA Tournament Q&A

To get you ready for the NCAA tournament, which begins Tuesday March 14, Chris Bacon, Seth Bondroff, and myself did a pre-tourney Q&A on some things to watch for over the next 10 or so days.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

1) Which conference tournament are you most looking forward to seeing?

Seth: The ACC Tourney should be a fantastic weekend of Basketball. The Big 12 as well.

Chris: I’m biased but for me, I’m most looking forward to seeing the Big East Tournament. There’s really nothing better than Big East basketball at Madison Square Garden in March. As has been the case since conference realignment occurred four years ago, the Big East is going through the season with less “hoopla” surrounding the conference. Not that he is perfect by any means, but Joe Lunardi has 7 teams from the Big East making the tournament right now. That’s 70% of the conference, even more than his prediction of 9 teams (60%) coming from the ACC. The Big East’s round-robin schedule has been a bloodbath this season, with many upsets throughout the season. While it is Villanova’s tournament to lose, I can realistically make an argument for one of Butler, Creighton, Xavier, Providence, Seton Hall or Marquette making a run to earn the automatic bid.

Rob: It’s always the ACC tournament for me. It’s arguably the best conference (Big 12 has a stake in that title too). It has at least 9 teams that look to be headed to the big dance and there is a chance for 10. I also feel there is a good chance that at least 1 of the top 4 seeds (those are the teams that get a double bye) are going to lose their first games. When you see a team like Virginia looking at an 8 seed, that makes them very dangerous.

I am also interested to see how things play out in the Pac 12, where they have 3 legit top 10 teams. The winner of that tournament, assuming each wins their final game and that the winner is indeed one of those 3 teams, could be the 1 seed in the West, over the Zags.

2) Of the mid majors, who has the most to lose in their conference tournament?

Seth: With the depth of the ACC, Big 12, Big East, and a few others, I worry about a team like Illinois State not getting in if they don’t win the Missouri Valley. They’re not the name that Wichita State is, and I hope that the job Dan Muller has done there (they haven’t made the dance since he played there in the late 90s) doesn’t go overlooked.

Chris: Think the clear answer is Wichita State and the Missouri Valley Conference’s Arch Madness. While Wichita State is ranked 10th in KenPom, their “best” win is either Tulsa or Colorado State, neither world-beaters, to say the least. The Shockers are currently the top 10 seed on Bracket Matrix (a website that takes the bracketologies of dozens of analysts and averages them out). The Shockers cruised to a 17-1 finish in the MVC (with their lone loss to fellow 17-1 team, Illinois State), but their lack of signature wins really hurt their resume. A loss in the conference tournament will really make Wichita State fans sweat on Selection Sunday.

Rob: Wichita State jumps out at me due to the lack of quality wins. Can they get on based off of past performance and winning a bunch of games this year if they don’t win their conference tourney? With the depth of some of the larger conferences, it may be tough to put them in. I would also say Monmouth here. They were arguably the biggest snub last year and with them not really having any good wins this year (unlike last year), it would be tough for them to get in without winning the MAAC tourney.

3) Are the #1 seeds set as of now and if not, who could get on the 1 line and who could drop?

Seth: Villanova and Kansas look like locks, and North Carolina looks good, but still can’t afford more than 1 more loss. I don’t think Gonzaga is a lock, though I expect them to win the WCC tourney. Whoever wins the Pac 12 title might just sneak in.

Chris: I think Villanova and Kansas have pretty much locked up a 1 seed. North Carolina still needs to do some work, considering their loss at #23 Virginia and then their finale at home vs. #17 Duke. Another loss could allow a Pac-12 team (like Arizona, Oregon or UCLA) to jump to a top seed or another ACC team, like Louisville to claim that prize. If Gonzaga also suffers another loss before the NCAA Tournament, they too would fall off of the top seed line

Rob: I think Villanova and Kansas are locked in. After that, I think it is up for grabs. UNC has a stranglehold on one of the 1 right now but a loss to Duke this weekend and a loss in the first round of the ACC tourney (right now, they play the winner of Cuse/UVA) could knock them off that spot. Gonzaga likely gets a 1 but I do think its possible that UCLA/Zona/Oregon, assuming one of those teams’ wins out, could get the spot. Also possible that one of them AND the Zags get a 1.

4) Does whoever emerges out of UCLA, Arizona and Oregon deserve a 1 seed in the West over the Zags?

Seth: Yes! I don’t want it to look like I’m bashing Gonzaga, as I do think they’re a good team. I just like to reward the teams that play the tougher schedule. There’s no way the Zags are 29-1 in the Pac 12, with all due respect.

Chris: Yes, I think the winner of the Pac-12 ends up getting the final 1 seed, assuming one of the teams win out (which all three should in the regular season) and the Pac-12 Tournament. This also assumes that Gonzaga doesn’t slip up and wins the West Coast Conference tournament. Even still, I’d expect one of those teams to jump Gonzaga because they would likely add another Top-25 win (against each other) in the Pac-12 Tournament. As it is right now, Bracket Matrix (a website that takes the bracketologies of dozens of analysts and averages them out) has Oregon as the top 2 seed and Arizona and UCLA as the top 3 seeds.

Rob: Yes, it is possible but I think some are underestimating the Zags chances. We have heard that the NCAA is doing the seeding in a more analytical way than they have in the past. All of the analytics point to the Zags being the best team. Not only that, they do have a win over Arizona, on the road no less. If the Zags don’t win their conference tournament, they will for sure not get a 1 but I think they still hang onto to the 1 seed if they win out. As I said in the previous question, UNC could be the team in danger of losing the 1 seed, not the Zags.

5) Which mid majors should scare you if you are a fan of a major conference school?

Seth: The aforementioned Illinois State, UNC Wilmington from the CAA, and Middle Tennessee State or Louisiana Tech from Conference USA. I’ll also say Monmouth, though they’re a bit small. Fun to watch though.

Chris: I hate the term “mid major” in general because there are a lot of teams (i.e. Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, Dayton) that are major teams in mid-major conferences. That all being said, of the true mid-majors, Middle Tennessee State. The Blue Raiders, who upset #2 Michigan State in last year’s tournament, may have a better squad this year, as they sit atop Conference USA. They allow 63.1 PPG, 18th lowest in the country. This team already has power conference wins, with a 15-point road win at Ole Miss and a 71-48 drubbing at home vs. Vanderbilt. All four of their losses are by 11 points or less (two losses were by three points each). MTSU, ranked 48th in KenPom, has an impressive 4-1 record vs. the
RPI Top 100. If they make the tournament again, they may be a favorite upset pick over a 5, 6 or 7 seed, depending how the bracket plays out.

Rob: Taking the Zags out of this…Obviously, you have Wichita State and/or Illinois St that could cause some damage. We saw what Middle Tenn St did last year, so they are a team to watch. Monmouth, who I mentioned earlier, could be very scary. They have an excellent PG and if you have issues containing a player like that, you could be in some trouble against them. East Tenn St is another potential solid threat. #67 on Kenpom and top 40 in defensive efficiency. Belmont is always dangerous due to their style of play. Also, the Ivy League has some quality teams, so whoever comes out of there could pose problems.

6) How many teams should the ACC get in?

Seth: All 16!!! Seriously though, 9 more than likely, but kudos to Wake Forest and Georgia Tech for getting close enough to be in the conversation.

Chris: I think and expect that the ACC will get nine teams in the NCAA Tournament. Wake Forest (KenPom #33) and Clemson (KenPom #34) have great statistical numbers, however, their lack of resume-building wins (the Tigers are 4-12 in conference while the Demon Deacons are 7-9) will be the reason that they are left outside of the bubble. Obviously things can change if one of those two teams, or Georgia Tech, earn a signature win during the ACC Tournament, but I feel like nine is the appropriate bid number for the conference at this time.

Rob: As of now, it should be 9. I think there is a chance they get a 10th. Wake has a chance to get there and even Georgia Tech has an outside chance.

7) Give me one team that you expect to make the NCAA tournament that will wreck people’s brackets?

Seth: Oklahoma State might be in my Final Four. As far as a major sleeper, Nevada.

Chris: I have written about them before, but I really like the way this Oklahoma State team is playing. In his first season, I predicted Brad Underwood to lead the Cowboys to an 8th-place finish and right now, they are exceeding expectations. OSU had an impressive win at West Virginia earlier this year, led by guards Phil Forte and Jawun Evans. Evans is a really talented point guard, who leads Oklahoma State in points (18.6) and assists (6.0). In my opinion, elite guard play is the difference between making some noise or going home early in the NCAA Tournament. Oklahoma State’s guard combo could give Cowboys fans optimism to make a run in the NCAA’s with a chance to pull an upset or two and make the Sweet 16.

Rob: Iowa State is scary IMO. They will probably be a 5/6 seed and boast arguably the best PG in the country, Monte Morris. They are 23rd in the Kenpom rankings, with a top 20 in offense and top 50 in defense. The big 12 has been a beast this year, so them coming out and doing some damage wouldn’t be surprising. Fellow Big 12 team OK St is another team you don’t want to play. They don’t play defense as well as Iowa St but they are #2 in offensive efficiency in the country.

8) Maryland is fading fast. What are your expectations for them over the next few weeks? Where do you feel they end up getting seeded?

Seth: Maryland has had a GREAT year, no one saw this coming, and I think they exceeded expectations despite what looks like a poor finish. Considering they should get everyone back next year, a serious run is more realistic in March of 2018. I see them getting a 7 seed still, and hopefully winning a game in the tourney.

Chris: Maryland ends the regular season with Senior Day on Saturday, March 4th against Michigan State. I would expect the Terrapins to defeat the Spartans despite losing five of their last eight. Maryland will have the benefit of “hosting” the Big Ten Tournament in Washington DC, which should give the Terps some sort of home field advantage. According to Bracket Matrix, Maryland is currently the top 7 seed. If Maryland wins the conference tournament (which would likely include a win against Purdue or Wisconsin), I would expect them to rise to a 5 seed. However, I feel like the safer bet would be Maryland making the semifinals or finals and ending up as one of the 6 seeds.

Rob: MD fans have nothing to be ashamed of this year. This team has overachieved and has some good wins under their belt. That being said, how they are limping to the finish line has to be a concern. Beating Michigan St this weekend and making a good run in the conference tournament would do wonders for them. Personally, I think they end up a 7 seed. They will have a tough first game and if they win, they likely face a 2 seed. While possible, I don’t think they get past that team.