Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis have both signed contracts, offering four seasons of their services in exchange for millions of American dollars. Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on your perspective) neither player will be doing so in Baltimore, which means the Orioles currently have a lackluster stable of outfielders (though I use that word loosely with Cruz) for next season. Using players currently under contract the club would look something like Alejandro De Aza in right, Adam Jones in center, and a platoon of Steve Pearce and David Lough in left (with Pearce possibly DHing on the other side of the platoon).
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That doesn’t really seem like the starting outfield of a World Series contender. The O’s are looking to upgrade at least one of the corners (if not both) before heading into Spring Training for sure. As a result, here are some of the names that have been tied to the Orioles in recent days:
- Marlon Byrd
- Justin Upton
- Melky Cabrera
- Nori Aoki
- Delmon Young
- Colby Rasmus
- Drew Stubbs
- Matt Kemp
- Andre Ethier
- Matt Joyce
- Mike Morse
Many of those names don’t inspire much confidence, and the rest of the free agent pool isn’t great either. Here are some additional names that you’ve probably heard of that inexplicably haven’t been linked to the O’s just yet:
- Emilio Bonifacio
- Mike Carp
- Jonny Gomes
- Corey Hart
- Kelly Johnson
- Alex Rios
There are some familiar names in there, but nobody that you really want to hang your hat on. You can take a look at the full list of free agents here. That’s a lot of options, so how should one parse through them to decide which players are right for Baltimore. After all, Duquette is looking for both righties and lefties in the corner OF spots, so that doesn’t help narrow anything down.
The first step is weeding out players that don’t fit the profile of the O’s team as it’s currently constructed. Duquette and Buck Showalter like to avoid any defensive liabilities when possible, so it seems to me that Mike Morse (career -19.2 UZR/150 in the OF), Alex Rios (-4.3 UZR/150 in OF last season), and Melky Cabrera (career -5.5 UZR/150 in the OF) don’t fit. Sure, it’s possible that their bats would elevate them into consideration, especially Melky, but still. Let’s disregard them for a minute.
That leaves, in my mind, three names to consider. Emilio Bonifacio, Colby Rasmus, and Nori Aoki. Bonifacio can likely be eliminated because he’s well below average with the bat (career 80 wRC+). That’s not to say that he’s a bad target, just that Bonifacio would likely be a fourth outfielder type, something the O’s already have two of currently on the roster in De Aza and Lough.
This leaves the O’s with two options, both of whom are average to better defensively and slightly above average offensively. Rasmus can easily handle a corner outfield spot after playing CF for much of his time in Toronto. Aoki managed in right field last year for Kansas City, and nobody can really blame him for being lifted in favor of Lorenzo Cain late in games.
The FanGraphs crowd predicted a 2/$14MM contract for Aoki which would definitely put him in the price range for the Orioles. They had Rasmus at 3/$30MM on a median contract, likely due to some team being willing to throw him into center. Both contracts seem reasonable, and Dave Cameron generally agreed. He had Aoki getting a third guaranteed year and a slightly higher AAV at 3/$24MM while Rasmus could be looking at a modest salary bump in his eyes; something along the lines of 3/$36MM was Cameron’s suggestion.
Regardless, both deals seem perfectly fine for players of the age and profile that Aoki and Rasmus bring. Rasmus is four years younger so going over three years wouldn’t even be an issue if you had to. The nice thing about both players is that they haven’t developed any of that early-market helium that’s hit Morse and Cabrera. MLBTR predicted Cabrera could sign for 5/$66.25MM, a number that would truly shock me. That said, I do think his final deal ends up being between that and what Dave Cameron predicted at 3/$39MM. Regardless of the exact numbers, Melky seems too expensive for my taste, especially given his lackluster ability in the field.
This brings us back to Aoki and Rasmus. These two guys have very different profiles despite putting up comparable offensive values. Rasmus has a career triple slash line of .246/.313/.438, with his overall offensive production being buoyed by home runs (a career .192 ISO).
Aoki has a different approach altogether as his .287/.353/.387 career triple slash line would indicate. He’s hit one more home run in his career than Rasmus hit last season, so he really doesn’t fit in with the rest of the O’s lineup. That’s why he’s the perfect fit in Baltimore.
Rasmus is a fun, all-or-nothing, kind of player. He’s also the type of player that the O’s already have a lot of. Aoki is a lot like Markakis, which is really a good thing. He’d slide right into the leadoff spot of the lineup, getting on base at a high rate for the sluggers behind him. He’d provide the O’s with a base-running threat, even though they haven’t been prone to stealing bases in recent seasons. He’ll provide solid defense and a reliable bat that Showalter can trust to send out there every day.
The free agent landscape is pretty brutal if you’re looking for impact players at the moment. There are some to be had, but you’ll pay the price if you want them. Quietly though Aoki is waiting patiently for an opportunity. The O’s should jump at the chance to bring him in, even if he is a bit older than a traditional free agent signee. Dan Duquette has always been good at finding the diamond in the rough. Hopefully he recognizes this one.
Jeff was the owner of the Orioles blog Warehouse Worthy, which focused on making advanced statistics a part of the conversation for the average fan. Outside of baseball, Jeff is a graduate of Loyola University where he received his Bachelor’s and Master’s in Business Administration. The Maryland native currently works for an Advertising Agency in downtown Baltimore. Previously a contributor to Beyond the Boxscore, he joined Baseball Prospectus in September 2014. You can reach him at jeff.long@baltimoresportsandlife.com.