The O’s return to Baltimore tonight, following a 3-6 road trip vs. divisional foes. While the Orioles were roughed up last night by the Red Sox, they do leave Boston having won their first series in five tries.

The return to Charm City also brings the return of Interleague play, and the arrival of the Philadelphia Phillies.

1) The Orioles recent slump started before they went on the road. They had lost series to the Red Sox, and Royals at OPACY prior to heading to Toronto. With those home losses, the O’s are just 14-13 at home (despite being 7 games over .500 overall).  Philadelphia enters this weekend at 28-31 on the year, but they are 4 games over .500 on the road.

2) I’m a Jake Arrieta fan, but I concede the obvious; he is extremely frustrating to watch. His start Sunday in Tampa Bay was a microcosm of pretty much each of his 7 losses. Another game, where Arrieta’s worst enemy was Arrieta. His stuff is undeniable, but there have now been numerous games this year where Arrieta has been cruising, only to face some adversity (that he usually causes), and he ultimately collapses.We are 57 games into the season, and I don’t think we have seen many starters with better stuff, but that is not enough. You have to be able to translate that to performances which allow your team a chance to win.

One issue I see with Jake, is that he has a tendency to show his entire arsenal to every hitter, the first time through the lineup. His fastball has enough velocity and movement, that he should be able to pitch just off that. As the game progresses, he can work in his other stuff. Of course,  even with strong velocity and movement; he has problems with fastball command. Hard to pitch off the fastball alone, if you can not throw it for a strike whenever you want to.

Compared to last year:

Arrieta’s K/9 is better – was 7.01 last year, is 7.84 this year.
Arrieta’s BB/9 is better – was 4.45 last year, is 2.96 this year.
Arrieta’s HR/9 is better – was 1.58 last year, is 1.16 this year.
Arrieta’s LOB % is significantly worse – was 72.7% last year, is 59% this year.

For the year, Arrieta is 2-7, with a 5.53 era (3.98 FIP). In his 70 innings, he has allowed 70 hits, 9 homers, 23 bb’s, with 61 k’s. His OPS against is .721, and his G/F is 0.88.

If he could ever consistently harness what he showed in his starts at New York, and at Washington; he could be a front-end starter. If he just avoided his flame out type starts like at LA, vs. Tampa, and at Toronto; he could be a solid mid-rotation starter. Instead, he goes into tonight as the O’s 4th starter (5th when Britton returns), and is fighting to stay in the rotation. Tonight is a an extremely important start for Arrieta and the Orioles.

3) The O’s have slipped to 15th overall in runs, after spending most of the year in the Top 10. The on-base % (23rd overall) is obviously a tremendous factor, but just focusing on the results – the O’s are averaging 3 runs per game in the 6 games they have played this Month. Baltimore had developed an identity of how they are going to win games. They need to bang out runs using the long-ball, and turn a lead over to their bullpen for the last 9 outs.

4) Flaherty was 3 for 6 in the Boston series, with each of his hits being hit hard. Interested to see if he can start to get going these next few weeks with Markakis out, and regular ab’s available. Chavez was 5 for 13 in Boston, showing something with the bat for the first time this year. He has made a few nice plays in LF this year, but he is going to have to get hot with the bat to keep his spot on this roster. He should be in the lineup tonight and tomorrow, and see if he can build off the Red Sox series.

5) After getting in the wrist Sunday, Jones was 1 for 12 in Boston. A limited sample size like that might have zero to do with his wrist. Or, he could be trying to fight through the pain, and stay in the lineup. Showalter should decide for Jones, if Jones needs a day off.

6) With the O’s being blown out, Gregg got into a game last night throwing an inning. It was his first outing since 6/1. For most of the year, Showalter has used Gregg mostly on the road (9 of his 14 outings). Now the O’s come home for 6 games. Is he going to be used? Use him, or move him.

7) It looks like Hunter will be promoted back to the Birds, and start tomorrow. Hunter won his one start at Norfolk, with a strong outing June 2nd. I like having a guy around like Hunter, who can give a start if needed. I’d like to see him have a quality outing, and show he belongs on the Major League roster; even if his future is not in the rotation. Using Hunter for several outings, and several innings per week makes more sense to me than having a buried Gregg in the back of the bullpen?

8) Hammel will take the mound Sunday. In Toronto he let up 4 homers. In Boston, he needed 106 pitches to get through 5 innings. Lots of deep counts. I want to see him pound the strike zone, and get ahead. Force the Phillies to swing, and eat up their bats with the 2 seamer.

9) Davis has hit another lull, as he is just 2 for his last 18, with 1 bb, and 7 k’s in that span. Betemit is on pace for 20 homers, but has not had an XBH since homering vs. Boston on May 22nd. In his last 10 games, Andino has 2 bb’s and 11 k’s. (15 bb’s, 59 k’s for the year.) The O’s could use some production out of this trio, this weekend.

10) Following an 8 for 16 spell, Wieters was 0 for 7 the last two days in Boston. As poor as May was Wieters, you are looking for some sustained performance from Wieters here in June.

Projected Pitchers
6/8: Blanton vs. Arrieta
6/9: Worley vs. Hunter
6/10: Lee (LHP) vs. Hammel

Blanton: 4-6, 5.27 era, 68.1 ip, 82 hits, 12 hr’s, 11 bb’s, 54 k’s, .836 OPS against, 0.87 G/F
Pitch F/X: http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/430599/

Worley: 3-2, 3.38 era, 48 ip, 49 hits, 7 hr’s, 18 bb’s, 49 k’s, .802 OPS against, 1.02 G/F
Pitch F/X: http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/474699/

Lee: 0-3, 2.92 era, 64.2 ip, 54 hits, 7 hr’s, 11 bb’s, 66 k’s, .653 OPS against, 1.24 G/F
Pitch F/X: http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/424324/

C: Ruiz .983 OPS
1st: Wigginton .770 OPS
2nd: Galvis .617 OPS
SS: Rollins .648 OPS
3rd: Polanco .692 OPS
LF: Pierre .717 OPS
CF: Victorino .725 OPS
RF: Pence .815 OPS

Bench: Thome, Mayberry Jr, Schneider, Luna, Fontenot
Rotation: Hamels, Lee, Blanton, Worley, Kendrick
Bullpen: Papelbon, Bastardo, Qualls, Schwimer, Valdes, Diekman, Savery

Current Ranks:

Philadelphia
Runs: 16th
Batting Average: 5th
On Base: 17th
Slugging: 16th
ERA: 12th
Quality Starts: 2nd
WHIP: 5th
BAA: 20th

Baltimore
Runs: 15th
Batting Average: 19th
On Base: 23rd
Slugging: 6th
ERA: 9th
Quality Starts: 24th
WHIP: 12th
BAA: 13th

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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