After a long All-Star break, the Baltimore Orioles return to action tonight, hosting the Detroit Tigers this weekend.
1) The O’s are 45-40, in 2nd place in the American League East, 7 GB the Yankees. Baltimore is currently the 2nd Wild Card in the American League, a 1/2 game ahead of Tampa Bay. The O’s will play everyday between now and July 31st. Decisions about whether the team should be buyers (or sellers), will be completely predicated by what occurs on the field these next few weeks. If there is going to be consideration of trading multiple players under long-term team control, the current roster is going to have to string together some series wins, starting with this series vs. Detroit (currently in 3rd place in the AL Central, but just 1.5 GB of the O’s for the 2nd Wild Card).
2) Prior to the break, Hammel had lost his 3 previous decisions. After getting rocked by the Angels on the 27th of June, Hammel was serviceable (but not strong) in his last two outings (7/2 @ Seattle, and 7/7 @ LAA). If the O’s are going to sustain the general good feelings of the first half, Hammel will have to come close to replicating his 1st half as a whole. Seeing him get off to a positive start tonight, would be a good beginning to the 2nd half.
3) The comments above with Hammel, could almost be repeated verbatim for Chen tomorrow. Over Chen’s last 4 outings, he was 0-3. While he had a quality start 7/3 @ Seattle, he had poor performances vs. Cleveland 6/28, and @ LAA 7/8. Vs. the Angels on the 8th, he allowed 3 hrs in his 4 innings of work. In 4 starts between 6/1 and 6/17, Chen got opposing hitters to hit 44 grounders against him, allowing just 2 hr’s. In his last 4 starts, opposing hitters have hit just 18 grounders against him, and he has allowed 8 hr’s.
4) Welcome back Nick Markakis! Back off the DL, Markakis makes his first appearance in an O’s uniform tonight, since May 29th. You would expect his timing to be off a bit at the plate, but hopefully he can find it this weekend. He should have his legs under him, and and help in the OF as well.
5) With Markakis back in RF, we expect Davis to slide over to LF. Davis has previously told Showalter that he was more comfortable in RF, and LF at OPACY can be a difficult position to play. Will Davis get through the weekend, showing to be serviceable in LF?
5a) I was very pleased with Davis’ 1st half as a whole (.788 OPS, 26 xbh’s). He has gone through several extended slumps, and come out of them each time to produce again. Still, he has had just 15 bb’s vs. 80 k’s, and only 21 hits in his last 101 ab’s. Certainly would like to see the walk to k ratio close during the 2nd half.
6) The power and movement of Tillman’s fastball provided the fireworks on the 4th of July in Seattle. He was masterful over his 8.1 innings, allowing 2 hits, 2 bb’s, with 7 k’s. Sent back to Bowie after the game, he allowed 3 runs on 4 hits, in 3.1 ip for the Baysox on Monday. It is easy to believe that Tillman was not completely there emotionally. Has to be hard to focus completely at AA, coming off of that MLB start. Obviously you would love to see another strong start from Tillman. What I will be watching for is his mechanics. Does he continue to show that compacted, easy delivery? Is he able to replicate it through-out the game? Does he again show that plus velocity and movement? Does he again keep hitters off balance with that slow over-hand curve? The start vs. the Mariners showed his current ceiling. The rest of the way will be about him showing how consistent he can be.
7) On-base % has been an issue all year, but the recent drop in slugging %, has led to the recent corresponding drop in runs. As the O’s began their 6/22 – 6/24 series vs. the Nationals, the O’s were 23rd in on-base %, 10th in slugging %, and 13th in runs. Going into tonight, the O’s are 26th in on-base %, 19th in slugging %, and 19th in runs. Baltimore has to again get their power bats going.
8) Despite their All-Star appearances, both Wieters and Jones have had a couple of days to help recharge their batteries. There is a lot on their respective shoulders, but that responsibility is part of the burden of being the leaders on a team. For the Orioles to dream of a strong 2nd half, these two have to provide something positive nearly every series. Combined, they don’t even have 60 ab’s for the Month, so I understand you can’t read too much into their lack of production in July. Still, when they are not hitting, the impact on the O’s lineup as a whole is profound.
9) While a returning Markakis can help the offense, and Wieters and Jones have to be expected to lead offense as a whole; they can’t be the only ones. Hardy had a sub-par 1st half. Reynolds was significantly off his career numbers as well. The O’s did not trade for Jim Thome in his prime, but they do need the Thome that had 24 xbh’s in 206 ab’s with the Twins last year. Following a strong June, Betemit has 1 xbh in 27 July ab’s. You don’t expect everyone to get going at once, but this group needs to take different times stepping-up.
10) In April, Strop pitched in 10 games over 13 innings. In May, he pitched in 12 games, over 13.2 ip. He was in 11 games in June, but pitched just 9.1 ip. In July, he has pitched in 1.2 ip in 3 games. The O’s 45 wins came with a familiar pattern. The offense slugged homers, and the bullpen protected leads, making many games 7 inning affairs. Maybe taking Johnson’s production for-granted is a bit much, but we remain extremely confident in his ability to continue to perform. We believe in Strop’s arm, but we still look at him as more of a wildcard. Strop had a major 1st half (4-2, 1.67 era, 3 saves, 37.2 ip, 25 hits, 1 hr, 20 bb’s, 32 k’s, .561 OPS against, 2.33 G/F). I’m very interested to see how Strop responds over the rest of the year. If the O’s can get back to being able to turn leads over to Lindstrom, Strop, and Johnson; I think that will provide the best opportunity for the Orange and Black to have fun during the 2nd half.
Projected Pitchers
7/13: Fister vs. Hammel
7/14: Scherzer vs. Chen
7/15: Verlander vs. Tillman
Fister: 2-6, 4.75 era, 60.2 ip, 73 hits, 8 hr’s, 15 bb’s, 48 k’s, .777 OPS against, 1.13 G/F
Pitch F/X: http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/450729/
Scherzer: 8-5, 4.72 era, 97.1 ip, 102 hits, 15 hr’s, 33 bb’s, 121 k’s, .769 OPS against, 0.67 G/F
Pitch F/X: http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/453286/
Verlander: 9-5, 2.58 era, 132.2 ip, 96 hits, 11 hr’s, 30 bb’s, 128 k’s, .566 OPS against, 0.75 G/F
Pitch F/X: http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/434378/
C: Avila
1st: Fielder
2nd: Santiago
SS: Peralta
3rd: Cabrera
LF: Berry
CF: Jackson
RF: Boesch
DH: Young
Bench: Laird, Raburn, Kelly, ?
Rotation: Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, Fister, Smyly
Bullpen: Valverde, Coke, Benoit, Below, Dotel, Villarreal, ?
Current Ranks:
Detroit
Runs: 10th
Batting Average: 3rd
On Base: 5th
Slugging: 8th
ERA: 17th
Quality Starts: 13th
WHIP: 20th
BAA: 24th
Baltimore
Runs: 19th
Batting Average: 26th
On Base: 26th
Slugging: 19th
ERA: 19th
Quality Starts: 26th
WHIP: 15th
BAA: 16th
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.