With the World Series over, and the O’s preparing to hire their next General Manager and begin their off-season; Baltimore Sports and Life has reached out to CBS Sports Senior Baseball Writer Danny Knobler for some of his thoughts.

You can find Knobler’s work at:
http://www.cbssports.com/columns/writers/knobler

You can find Knobler on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/#!/DKnobler

Baltimore Sports and Life thanks Mr. Knobler for answering a few questions.

Baltimore Sports and Life: “With Andy MacPhail not returning for 2012 as the President of Baseball Operations, the Orioles have been interviewing potential replacements. Candidates external to the organization that have been interviewed to date include Jerry Dipoto, who has since taken the job as General Manager of the Angels, Tony LaCava, Assistant General Manager of the Toronto Blue Jays, and DeJon Watson, Assistant General Manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

SI’s Jon Heyman has since tweeted that LaCava is likely to be named the GM. Inclusive of Dipoto prior to him taking the LA job, did one of these three stick out to you as the best possible hire for Baltimore?

At times it has been rumored locally that John Hart is a possibility. Do you see Hart as a better option than LaCava, or Watson? Similarly, it has also been rumored that the O’s are also interested in interviewing Texas’ Asst. GM Thad Levine. Where would you rate Levine among this group?”

Knobler: “I also wrote that LaCava is now the favorite, and I think he would be a fine choice. Thad Levine would be a good choice, too, but I don’t know that they’re interested, or that he would even be willing to take it. I doubt very much that John Hart wants the job.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “During the year, we interviewed 12 analysts including yourself, and from other sites such as Baseball Digest, Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, USA Today, and ESPN, asking each to provide names of Executives they would personally recommend.

(Their compiled answers can be found at: https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=3052)

Among the named responses were: John Coppolella (Atlanta’s Director of Baseball Operations), Gerry Hunsicker (Tampa’s Senior VP of Baseball Operations), Paul DePodesta (NY Mets VP of Player Development & Scouting), Rich Hahn (Chicago White Sox’ VP & Asst. General Manager), Josh Byrnes (Padres VP of Baseball Operations), Logan White (LA Dodgers Asst. GM / Director of Amateur & Intl. Scouting), and Tyrone Brooks (Pittsburgh’s Director of Baseball Operations).

From my own conversations, I know that several of those Executives were/are interested in this position. Yet, none of them appear likely to receive interviews with Baltimore. Should the O’s have had a larger, more inclusive search? Among all possible candidates, would one of those Executives been your choice? Is there someone else not named, you would prefer?”

Knobler: “There are plenty of good options. There’s no one “best” choice. They need someone who can, and is willing, to work within the confines a Baltimore GM has to live with.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “It was announced Thursday (10/27) that the O’s Player Development Director John Stockstill would also be interviewed for the GM position. John Stockstill has also previously been the International Scouting Director for the O’s, and the Amateur Scouting Director for the Cubs. Despite having worn those multiple hats, I’m still puzzled by why the O’s would interview him at all, even if it is a courtesy interview. Your thoughts?”

Knobler: “They can interview whoever they want. I wouldn’t worry about who they’re interviewing.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Earlier in the off-season, J. Stockstill (whose contract ran up until 12/31) had been extended for 2012. MASN’s Roch Kubatko has reported several times that Brian Graham, the O’s Coordinator of Minor League Instruction, would likely replace John Stockstill, if Stockstill was reassigned as expected.

Would you agree that the decision of promoting Graham, should be the decision of the next GM / Director of Baseball Operations? Assuming he is not named the GM, with Stockstill having been under contract until 12/31, does it make sense to you for him to have had his contract extended prior to the GM / Director of Baseball Operations being named? With him now interviewing for the position, won’t it be even harder for the next GM to work with him?”

Knobler: “Graham is outstanding at his job. I think any new GM would want him there. I don’t think it matters who is interviewed for the GM job.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “The Orioles Amateur Scouting Director Joe Jordan has left the organization to join the Phillies as their Player Development Director. We understand that existing Scouting Directors would not be allowed to make a lateral move to the O’s. If Asst. GM could be added to their Title, who are some Scouting Directors, or Asst. Scouting Directors you believe the new GM should pursue as replacements for Jordan?”

Knobler: “I’d trust the new GM to make a pick.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “During the 2011 season, O’s Manager Buck Showalter regularly met with Majority Owner Peter Angelos. Signed through 2013, Showalter is interested in immediate improvement at the Major League level, and is also not going anywhere. Obviously the incoming GM will have to be comfortable with inheriting a Manager. I think a major question for the GM will be, do they believe they can take the Orioles from the 69 wins here in ’11, to 90-95 wins within the next two years? If the GM does not believe that is possible, and thinks a deeper rebuilding is required, how will that be balanced out with the current roster improvements sought by Showalter?

Some locally believe that Showalter should be the one crafting the vision of the franchise going forward. It is my opinion that Showalter’s opinions should be considered, but that the Manager reports to the GM; and thus the GM should have autonomy to make the moves they desire. How do you see this?”

Knobler: “Buck has tons of power in that organization right now. That’s the reality. It doesn’t matter whether you think he should or shouldn’t. He does.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In a Baseball America poll (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/best-tools/2011/2612213.html) of Major League Managers, Adam Jones was ranked as the 2nd best defensive CF in the American League. On the other-side you have the most advanced defensive metrics which state Jones is a below average CF. I tend to believe that the truth lies between those two extremes. Jones currently has a Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) of .338, and his Isolated Power (ISO) is .182. For the 2nd consecutive year, he has played in 149+ games. For the 3rd consecutive year his OPS falls within the range of .767 to .792. He finished with 25 homers, and 26 doubles. Jones is a Free Agent after the 2013 season. By Opening Day 2012, do you think the O’s need to have either extended him or traded him? If you would like to see him extended, what type of contract do you think would be fair?”

Knobler: “Any defensive metrics you read publicly are either useless or next to useless, and should not be believed. Adam Jones has plenty of potential.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “If the O’s are ever going to be competitive in the near term, their young pitching has to produce. Matusz was extremely strong over his last 10 starts of 2010, and abysmal over his 12 outings in 2011. Like Jones’s defense, I think the truth about Matusz is probably somewhere in the middle, but he absolutely needs to earn his spot next Spring.

In 2011, Arrieta saw improvement in his K/9, Line Drive %, Ground Ball %, and First Strike % numbers. With the removed bone spur not directly at the elbow (and with him having surgery when he did), there seems to be confidence in his ability to have a normal throwing program this Winter. Obviously 21 homers in 119.1 ip is too much, and his fastball command has to increase.

There was been a lot to like about Britton’s rookie season, especially with how he responded to the adversity of July. Overall he finished 11-11, with a 4.61 era. In his 154.1 ip, he allowed 162 hits, 12 homers, 62 bb’s, with 97 k’s. His OPS against was .735, and he had a G/F ratio of 1.24. Like Arrieta, his fastball command needs to improve.

What are your thoughts on these three?”

Knobler: “I like both Britton and Arrieta a lot. I think Matusz has a lot to prove.”

Baltimore Sports and Life:Camden Depot (part of the ESPN Sweetspot Network, http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/) recently attempted to translate the Yu Darvish’s performance to MLB (http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2011/10/translating-yu-darvishs-performance-to.html).

Camden Depot estimated Darvish could potentially be worth 20 Wins Above Replacement over 5 years. They advocated the O’s consider posting between $60-$80M, with a 5 or 6 year deal in the neighborhood of another $70M.

It remains a question as to if Darvish will be posted, but if he is, what estimates are you hearing for a posting fee, and possible contract?”

Knobler: “I think it’s absurd to try to compare Japan stats to MLB stats. I think it would be crazy for the Orioles to gamble that kind of money on Darvish.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “You wrote earlier this year that the O’s might be targeting Prince Fielder. ESPN’s Jim Bowden wrote that Baltimore could make the most sense. SI’s Jon Heyman wrote that the average predicted contract for Fielder between himself, two Agents, and two GM’s was 6yrs $145M. Heyman has also written that Baltimore could make the most sense for the slugging 1st baseman. Your CBS colleague Scott Miller told BSL that 6 years, $145M would be solid for Baltimore. Dan Szymborski from ESPN and Baseball Think Factory told us he expects Fielder to sign something in the neighborhood of 6yrs $140M. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale told us Fielder will get at-least $190M over 8 years.

Fielder turned 27 on May 9th and he has a .929 OPS for his career.

In June you stated it is very hard to know exactly what it will take on any free-agent signing, and you pointed to the estimates on Werth and Crawford last Winter being too low. You said the offer the O’s provided Teixeira (7yrs $145M) was not relevant, because the O’s were in a much different position (and so was he). We discussed Texas, the Cubs, Nationals, Angels, and the Cardinals (if they were to lose Pujols) as other possible suitors for Fielder.

Here in October, what are your current thoughts on the O’s and Fielder? Do you think the O’s should pursue? Do you believe they will? Do you now see any other potential suitors? Understanding that it is hard to estimate what it will take, if the O’s do pursue, what should they be willing to offer?”

*Here is a link to 16 other analysts weighing in on these questions: https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=3040

Knobler: “I think it’s less likely now that the Orioles go after Fielder. Not impossible, but less likely.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “It appears that Houston will move to the American League.

You said earlier this year (http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/story/15249374/no-need-to-thank-me-but-heres-a-great-realignment-idea) that realignment would likely have the following components:

1) 162-game schedule remains, divided like this: 18 games against each of the other four teams in the division (72 games), six games against each team from the other divisions in the same league (60 games), three games against 10 of the 15 teams in the other league (30 games).

2) Each year, every team plays interleague games against the corresponding division in the other league (West vs. West, Central vs. Central, East vs. East). The other division matchups would switch from year to year (AL West vs. NL Central the first year, AL West vs. NL East the second year, etc.).

3) In the first and last part of the season (April, September), teams would stay within the region. The regions (West, Central, East) would in effect work as 10-team blocks, and April and September would be used for in-block games, with games against other blocks (regions) pushed to the middle of the season. You mostly stay within division down the stretch, but when you don’t, you at least don’t travel outside the region.

4) The playoff setup remains as is, except that a second wild-card team is added (as it almost certainly will be whether realignment happens or not). Preferably, the two wild-card winners have a one-game play-in, but that’s negotiable.

I agree with most of this. There have been those which have advocated the removal of divisions and just going back to two 15 team leagues. I don’t think that is realistic, because it would kill the teams that finished in the lower 1/3 of the league. More importantly, neither MLB nor FOX/ESPN would be happy with a drastic reduction of games between rivals such as NY & Boston.

The tweaks I would like to see to the plan you outlined would be:

A) 12 games against all of your division rivals for 48 games.

B) One 3 game series vs. every team in the other league, plus one additional series vs. each team’s designated rival. For the Orioles, that would be the Nationals. This provides for another 48 games.

C) That leaves 66 games to play against the other 10 teams in your league. You play six of those teams 7 times, and the other four teams 6 times. Those teams can be rotated year to year.

D) Preferably the Wild Card winners play a best of 3 series which makes a Wild Card team use their best starters to advance, and gives the Division winners a further advantage.

While not a completely balanced schedule, it is more balanced than the current schedule. While is a reduction in divisional games, it should still be an amount which would satisfy the TV Networks.

Are you in favor of Realignment and a 2nd Wild Card? If Houston does move to the American League, are the changed you outlined likely for 2012?”

Knobler: “Yes, I am in favor of realignment and a second wild card. I do believe Houston will move, but I believe that it will happen for 2013, not 2012.”

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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