With the hiring of Dan Duquette, and the hot-stove league kicking into high gear, Baltimore Sports and Life has reached out to Bob Harkins for his thoughts.

You can find Harkins’ work with NBC’s Hardball Talk at:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/

You can find him on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/#!/Bharks

Baltimore Sports and Life thanks Mr. Harkins for taking the time to answer a few questions.

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Dan Duquette  has been named the Orioles GM / Executive VP of Baseball Operations. I get the impression that Duquette has a chip on his shoulder, is hungry, and believes Epstein received too much of the credit he felt he deserved.

I’m thinking that even though the GM search was another PR nightmare for the O’s, that they still came out of this with a quality hire. Tony LaCava was a popular choice among many fans of the Birds for this position. I certainly recognized him to be capable, and would have supported that hire as well. For what ever reason, that hire was not able to be completed. Had LaCava been hired, the Orioles would have announced a 50 year-old first time GM. Instead they are announcing the hire of a 53 year-old, who has sat in the big chair (with success) a couple of times. Whatever went well (or bad) for Duquette with the Expos and Red Sox; Duquette has the advantage of leveraging those prior experiences.

My take is that O’s fans should give Duquette a fair shake and only concern themselves with what happens going forward.

What are your thoughts on Duquette, and how much does his absence from the game concern you?”

Harkins: “I think you have to be a little bit concerned with Duquette having been out of the game for nine years. That being said, he is still only 53, and the fact that he has a good background in scouting and player development, with some past success in the draft, makes him a good fit for the Orioles.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Duquette takes over a team which has had not had a winning season since 1997. He also takes over a team which has not even won 70+ games since 2006. Yet, it would also be unfair to say he inherits a total reclamation project either. There is enough talent on the Major League roster, that heading into the 2011 season the averaged predicted win total from 19 different analysts was 78. I still think the O’s underachieved this year. While all of the existing core players have plenty of questions, I still believe there is a decent group of players to move forward with.

Duquette made clear in his Press conference Tuesday that he plans to build the organization through Scouting (Amateur and International) and Player Development. If it seemed unlikely to Orioles fans that the O’s would bid on Fielder, or Darvish, etc. this off-season, I think it is fair to say those odds have been reduced further with the hiring of Duquette.

I see the O’s at a fork in the road. I lean towards believing a deeper rebuilding is necessary and should be the path traveled. However, there is a prevailing belief by many that Orioles Manager Buck Showalter wants to augment around the existing core. I can support heading in either direction, but what I want to see is a complete commitment to which ever road the O’s want to take.

What are a couple of things you believe the O’s should be working to accomplish this Winter?”

Harkins: “I think the big thing the Orioles should do is to not follow last season’s path of handing out money to past-their-prime veterans like Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee. The makeup of the major league roster and minor league system has improved in recent years and there are some nice pieces in place such as Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones, but the talent base simply isn’t broad or deep enough to compete with the big bullies in the AL East – particularly in the pitching department. So band-aid fixes with players like Guerrero might put some fans in seats temporarily, but it’s not going to be enough to make this team competitive. I think Duquette’s plan of focusing on player development is the right course of action. In the meantime, search for bargains on the free agent market of the younger/cheaper variety to fill spots on the current roster until a pipeline of young talent is established. This is difficult but not impossible. Two examples off the top of my head: The Rangers signing Colby Lewis out of Japan two years ago, and the Giants grabbing Ryan Vogelsong off the minor league scrap heap last January.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “During this past 2011 season, Showalter met regularly with Majority Owner Peter Angelos. Showalter has enough influence within the organization, that he was part of the interview committee with the prospective GM candidates. Presumably, Duquette and Showalter are currently on the same page.

However, if it becomes apparent that Duquette, and Showalter have differing philosophies of how the organization should be built (both in the immediate, and long-term) do you agree that Showalter’s opinions should be considered, but that the Manager reports to the GM; and thus the GM should have autonomy to make the moves they desire? If the O’s are going to listen to Showalter first, should he have been the one named the GM?”

Harkins: “Managers typically are consulted on moves, but the GM makes the final call, and that’s how it should be, and that’s also why you usually hire your GM first, and then the GM chooses a manager he is comfortable working with. The Orioles’ situation is unusual, and you have to wonder if Showalter’s influence was a reason the Orioles had so much trouble filling the position, and which man will win out of the two do eventually butt heads over the construction of the roster. I wonder if Angelos ever considered moving Showalter to the GM’s chair, and if Showalter actually would want the job.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Beyond the Major League team itself, Duquette also inherits a Minor League system with some high top-level talent, and a overall lack of depth. Last Winter, Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law both ranked the O’s system in the lower 1/3 of baseball. When we spoke with Baseball America’s Jim Callis last month (https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=3047), Callis did not anticipate the O’s moving into the middle of the 2012 rankings.

Joe Jordan, who had been the Orioles Director of Amateur Scouting, has left the organization to become the Phillies Player Development Director. An immediate question for Duquette will be, who is he going to get to replace Jordan? One name that interests me is Amiel Sawdaye, who is currently Boston’s Director of Amateur Scouting. Sawdaye is not going to leave the Red Sox for a lateral position, but perhaps the Baltimore native would join the O’s if he was named Asst. General Manager? If not Sawdaye, are there other external options you can name that you believe Duquette should consider?”

Harkins: “It’s certainly not a bad idea to poach from the Red Sox organization, as under Theo Epstein the Red Sox did a good job of combining their big free agent resources with developing young talent. Another team that has done a great job with player development is the Texas Rangers. You’re probably not going to be able to get Jon Daniels’ assistant Thad Levine, but you might look at a guy like A.J. Preller (Senior Director of Player Personnel), or Scott Servais (Senior Director of Player Development).”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In a Baseball America poll (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/best-tools/2011/2612213.html) of Major League Managers, Adam Jones was ranked as the 2nd best defensive CF in the American League. On the other-side you have the most advanced defensive metrics which state Jones is a below average CF. I tend to believe that the truth lies between those two extremes. Jones finished ’11 with a Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) of .339, and his Isolated Power (ISO) was .185. For the 2nd consecutive year, he has played in 149+ games. For the 3rd consecutive year his OPS fell within the range of .767 to .792. He finished with 25 homers, and 26 doubles. Jones is a Free Agent after the 2013 season. By Opening Day 2012, do you think the O’s need to have either extended him or traded him? If you would like to see him extended, what type of contract do you think would be fair?”

Harkins: “I agree with you about Jones’ defense. I think it’s safe to call him an above-average center fielder who occasionally makes the spectacular play. On offense, he’s remained pretty static the last three seasons – good but not great. When you combine the offense and the defense, plus the fact that he is only entering his age 26 season, I think it’s definitely worth looking at an extension. Jones still has upside, but even if he never improves over what he is now, he’s still a valuable player. I think the wise course of action is to approach Jones with an extension offer, and if you can get him at a decent value and buy out at least some of his free agency years (4 years, $22 million?) then you do the deal. Otherwise, there is really no need to rush on this, as he’s not eligible for free agency until 2014, and a lot can happen in two years.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “If the O’s are ever going to be competitive in the near term, their young pitching has to produce. Matusz was extremely strong over his last 10 starts of 2010, and abysmal over his 12 outings in 2011. Like Jones’s defense, I think the truth about Matusz is probably somewhere in the middle, but he absolutely needs to earn his spot next Spring.

In 2011, Arrieta saw improvement in his K/9, Line Drive %, Ground Ball %, and First Strike % numbers. With the removed bone spur not directly at the elbow (and with him having surgery when he did), there seems to be confidence in his ability to have a normal throwing program this Winter. Obviously 21 homers in 119.1 ip is too much, and his fastball command has to increase.

There was been a lot to like about Britton’s rookie season, especially with how he responded to the adversity of July. Overall he finished 11-11, with a 4.61 era. In his 154.1 ip, he allowed 162 hits, 12 homers, 62 bb’s, with 97 k’s. His OPS against was .735, and he had a G/F ratio of 1.24. Like Arrieta, his fastball command needs to improve.

What are your current thoughts on these three?”

Harkins: “The thing that concerns me about these guys is the control, which you mentioned. Britton walked 3.6 per nine innings, Matusz was at 4.3 and Arrieta at 4.4. This is unacceptable. It doesn’t matter how good your stuff is, if you can’t command it, you’re not going to get major league hitters out consistently, and their numbers prove it. The good news is that they are all in their early-to-mid 20s, so the their stories are far from over. One other guy who needs to figure things out within the next year or two is Chris Tillman, the other big acquisition – along with Adam Jones – in the Erik Bedard trade. Tillman, just 23, walked 3.6/9 innings last season, and has the exact same number in 120 minor league games.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Wieters finished with 50xbh’s (.450 Slugging) and was lauded as one of the best defensive catchers in the game. If you were starting a team – which catchers do you take before him?”

Harkins: “Brian McCann, maybe Carlos Santana – though he’s not in Wieters’ class defensively. Yadier Molina is a great defensive catcher, but four years older. Alex Avila strikes out too much, and I’m not convinced Joe Mauer will be an impact player behind the plate moving forward. That’s about it.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Prior to any external additions, the O’s likely 2012 roster currently resembles something like:

Guthrie, Britton, Hunter, Arrieta, Matusz
Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Tillman, Simon, Bergesen, Patton

Hardy SS
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Reynolds 3rd
Wieters C
Davis 1st
Reimold LF
DH
Andino 2nd

Roberts, Backup C, Angle, Adams

The Orioles 2011 payroll was roughly $85M. Those 23 players above are likely due somewhere between $65-$70M.

In 2011, the O’s spent about $10M on Amateur Scouting, and I believe around $1.5M on International Scouting. I think in generalities, you can estimate that the O’s have been willing to spend roughly $100-$105M combined on their Major League roster, Amateur Scouting, Intl. Scouting, Player Development, and Pro Scouting.

With Duquette stating he wants to build the organization, I think you have to expect that the 2012 payroll figures to be in the $85-$90M range, and could possibly be reduced. Considering Tampa Bay just went to the Playoffs for the 3rd time in 4 years with a payroll of just $41M, I feel that nobody should cry if the O’s 2012 payroll is reduced and reallocated to the other facets of Baseball Operations.

Beginning with the starting point of the existing roster, and an understanding of the limitations which will mark the O’s search; where and how can Baltimore improve through external additions? Do you agree that if the O’s are to have tangible improvement, it will come from within with currently existing parts?”

Harkins: “Like I mentioned above, I think the Orioles should shift their finances away from the free agent market and toward player development and scouting. Search for affordable, low-risk free agents to plug holes (I mentioned the Rangers’ Colby Lewis and Giants’ Ryan Vogelsong above, and the need for veteran pitching to mentor the youngsters is key) and spend money on the draft and international scouting. Once you establish a talent pipeline and become competitive (like the Rays), then the occasional splurge in the market is fine. But the Orioles aren’t there yet.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Let’s say the O’s signed the following players for the following contracts:

Sizemore: 1yrs $9M
Buehrle: 4yrs $50M
Barajas: 1yr $2.5M (Note from BSL, Barajas signed with Pittsburgh 11/10)
DeJesus: 1yr $5M

That would equal a $29M investment for ’12. Adding that to the $65-$70M payroll which currently exists, and we are talking about a payroll in the $94-$99M range. That would be elevated over last year, but probably palatable to the O’s.

This would leave the O’s looking like:

Buehrle, Guthrie, Britton, Arrieta, Matusz
Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Tillman, Simon, Hunter, Patton

Hardy SS
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Reynolds 3rd
Wieters C
Sizemore DH
Davis 1st
DeJesus LF
Andino 2nd

Roberts, Barajas, Reimold, Adams

While I think those moves would improve the O’s, Baltimore would still figure to reside in the bottom of the American League East (unless Britton, Arrieta, and Matusz drastically raised their games). If they are unlikely to move out of the cellar with such moves, do you think Baltimore would be better off saving their money?”

Harkins: “Yes. The Orioles would be better off saving their money or funneling it toward scouting and development. The key to competing against the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East is the model established by the Rays – draft well, make smart trades, develop young talent, and flip guys who are about to become expensive for more young talent. The good news is that the Orioles have much more money to spend then the Rays, and if they can become competitive, those extra resources will give Baltimore a better chance than Tampa Bay of remaining competitive.”

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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