O’s Q&A with Eno Sarris, FanGraphs

It is the heart of Major League Baseball’s award season as the baseball community celebrates the year that was. However, the MLB General Manager Meetings held this week not only serves as preparation for the Winter Meetings (December 9th – 12th) – but symbolically shows the game has moved on to preparation for 2015.

Similarly, Baltimore Sports and Life (BSL) has reached out to Eno Sarris (FanGraphs) for his thoughts on some of the things we saw from the O’s in ’14, and to look ahead to questions that await the Birds.

BSL thanks Mr. Sarris for his thoughts.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

BSL: After a disastrous 2013 (perhaps still dealing with the after effects of the wrist and thumb injuries of 2012), Markakis responded with a representative 2014. Winning his 2nd Gold Glove, his UZR/150 was positive for the first time since ’09 (DRS positive for the first time since ’11). To the surprise of no one, the O’s declined his option for ’15. They also did not make him a qualifying offer. The expectation in Baltimore is that he will be extended. Before the off-season began, I thought 2-3 years was likely. Now it appears that 4 years is possible. If the final deal is 4 years $32M, how would you evaluate the contract?

Sarris: I think he’s a bad defender. Too much evidence that he’s not good to believe 2014’s turnaround too much. And I know he was injured in 2013, but that happens to older players and with that zero in there, you’d probably project him for about four wins over the next four years. So that contract is good, but it’s not amazing. And if it’s for more, it starts to get bad. As it is, it looks like getting on base — through a combination of okay walk rate and lots of balls in play — is his only real above-average skill. He’s probably a below-average player going into his decline phase.

BSL: 2014 was mostly a mess for Jimenez, with his mechanical changes in September giving some hope going forward. With plenty of money owed to him, and his value at a low; it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the O’s would be able to move him this Winter. As is, the O’s have 5 other starters (Tillman, Gausman, Norris, Chen, Gonzalez) they can feel good about. Would you advocate that the O’s should look to move one of Norris, Chen, or Gonzalez –  or do you believe they should bring those 6 starters back, and figure that depth is a good thing?

Sarris: Teams use ten starters on average in a given year, and Baltimore needed all of their arms on deck this year. If they can get some salary relief, maybe it makes sense, but otherwise, bring the arms in and by spring’s end you’ll probably need the sixth guy.

BSL: The O’s did extend a qualifying offer to Cruz. MLB Trade Rumors has projected him to receive a 4 year, $70M deal. At that level, most O’s fans do not expect (or advocate) his return. What is the largest deal you think the O’s should consider offering him?

Sarris: FanGraphs readers projected Cruz for three and 45, but I think they’re too low. Perhaps it’s what they are comfortable with, because I’d sign him for that little. But MLBTR’s number sounds more like real life. And then it gets funky. Because Cruz was a below-average player — due to declining wheels, glove, and health — for three years going into this year. So I’d want to pay for something like six wins, tops, over the next four years. $70m seems $15 million too much for a package that might be overvalued by those looking for power and power alone.

BSL: The Free Agent O’s fans are clamoring to re-sign is Miller. It appears Miller will have no shortage of suitors. To prospectively keep Miller in Baltimore, what do you believe the O’s will have to be willing to offer?

Sarris: The FanGraphs readers have Miller down for 3/$24m and I think that’s about right. I don’t love paying relievers in multi-year contracts, but Miller strikes me like a Jeremy Affeldt type — more than a LOOGY, solid, can close, back-end relieve, and stay healthy in that role. I would shy away from closer prices, but high-end setup cash makes sense for a team that needs its bullpen to be good.

BSL:  Over the last 3 seasons, the O’s have hit at-least 211 homers each year, scored at-least 705 runs each year, and posted an on-base %’s no higher than .313. They figure to have a similar offensive profile next year. Thoughts on how the offense has been built, or what changes (if any) you would look to make?

Sarris: They play to the park, and walks have become more expensive. I’d rather not depend on Steve Pearce to start, so I’d buy some depth (preferably left-handed) if the team doesn’t bring back Nick Markakis. Barring a big signing — which I don’t anticipate, especially since they have to pay all their arbitration raises — I’d look to improve around the edges, especially at third base. Can the team do better than Flaherty? A Kelly Johnson might make sense. On the pitching side, re-sign Miller and hope Dylan Bundy and/or Kevin Gausman is better in 2015. Overall, hope a full, healthy year from Wieters, Machado, de Aza, and Miller is the ticket. That and…

BSL: Davis was All-World in ’13, but suffered through a horrible ’14 even prior to the 25 game amphetamine suspension which ended his year. He made $10.35M in ’14. What do you think he will make in arbitration this year? I anticipate most forecasts will split the difference between his ’13, and ’14 seasons; and project his ’15 season to resemble his 2012 year.  What are you expecting from him this coming year?

Sarris: That’s above my paygrade. Matt Swartz does an excellent job at MLBTradeRumors and has him down for about $12m. I think he’ll hit 30+ homers with an OBP over .320 and be valuable. As for the batting average, the strikeouts, and the defense? Total grab bag. Not a guy I’d sign for a long-term contract, totally a guy I’d love to have for another year on a win-now team.

BSL: Going into ’14, my assumption with Wieters was that the O’s would allow him to play out the remaining two years (through ’15) on his contract; and allow him to walk. He was off to a positive start prior to being lost for the year. How does the injury impact what you think the O’s should be looking to do with Wieters (push for an extension, let him play out ’15, look to trade) this off-season?

Sarris: He’s fairly steady actually, and a good catcher. I think you make sure he’s healthy, then approach him when his batting average isn’t .300. If he doesn’t sign the number you like, and you’re out of contention, that’s the only time to think trade.

BSL: For the second consecutive season, the O’s most talented all-around player (my opinion) saw his season end early with a knee injury. What is your level of concern about Machado’s health going forward, and what do you anticipate from him (general terms) over the next couple of years?

Sarris: I’m concerned because injury predicts future injury, and there’s a chance that there’s something about the way he runs or plays that will lead to more injuries. The worst-case scenario for the Orioles is that he hurts himself, Hardy’s back acts up, and then it’s Flaherty and Jimmy Paredes hanging out on the left side for any amount of time. If Machado can stay healthy, I’m watching his problem with pop-ups and his power. That’s where he can grow the most.

BSL: Steve Pearce has one year of team control remaining. Should the O’s consider making an extension offer for the to-be 32 year old?

Sarris: No. He seems like he’s just gearing up for the fastball and trying to hit the ball as hard as he can. I’d say that’s something that can be exploited, and I don’t like his age or handedness. Any regression, and he’s a platoon bat.

BSL: What are some things you believe Orioles Executive Vice-President Dan Duquette and his Baseball Operations staff should be looking to achieve this Winter?

Sarris: Infield depth, bullpen depth, and keep your ears out for someone that loves Dylan Bundy to death still. At this point, I might even deal Kevin Gausman if it got me a sure-fire ace. Love that guys’ stuff, nervous he won’t put it together to be a number one.

BSL: The O’s will enter the 2015 season as the American League East favorite if what occurs?

Sarris: They sign a couple depth pieces that have a chance to work out and get good news from their injured guys. If they can somehow turf Ubaldo Jimenez and sign or acquire a better starter, or swing a surprise outfielder (I’d count Cruz actually), the division is still wide open.