Now that we’ve flipped the calendar page to February, we’re officially inside of the month which brings us the goodness of first pitchers and catchers reporting, and ultimately, full squad workouts and the first few games of Spring Training 2016. To that end, most teams are starting to look like finished products, with their winter shopping lists completely checked off, or abandoned in hopes of some other way of getting where they planned on going in the first place.
For the most part, one could argue the Baltimore Orioles are a mostly finished product. Maybe re-signing Wei-Yin Chen was never considered terribly likely, but bringing back Chris Davis is a huge boost to an offense that’ll most likely need him as a hinge to determine which side of the league average they’ll fall on. Having either Ryan Flaherty or Mark Trumbo pegged to extensive playing time in right field is far from ideal, but help could come in the form of Hyun-Soo Kim rather quickly. It’s still worrisome, but is it the most worrisome spot on the projected 25-man roster?
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
For my money, no. The Orioles’ official depth chart on MLB.com pegs hard-throwing right-hander Mike Wright as the team’s likely No. 5 starter. Other places — including here — have openly wondered if Vance Worley could be in that mix, and FanGraphs actually projects Tyler Wilson to get the fifth-most innings from an Orioles starter, but with just 100. They have Wright tossing 45, with Dylan Bundy (75) sandwiched in the middle of he and Wilson.
But no matter who the team pegs as the No. 5 starter out of camp, the FanGraphs projections are not in favor. The lowest ERA among those five is Bundy at 4.11, and the highest is Wright (4.73), who is coming off a 44.2-inning cameo in which he posted a 6.04 ERA that peripherals suggest he pretty much deserved. There isn’t much hiding to be done behind a 5.2 K/9 rate with sub-40 percent groundball rates and 1.8 home runs per nine innings, after all.
Getting Bundy back in the swing of things would be ideal, but he hasn’t thrown more than 50 innings as a professional in a season since 2012. Odds are, he’ll be used out of the bullpen to gauge his health and find out what role he can handle in the future. Even if he remains healthy enough to make any starts, he can’t be counted on as a rotation space-holder this year, let alone in the the future with any degree of certainty.
Essentially, it’s all beating around the bush with the concept that the O’s need to add another starter. None of the four holdovers that are locked into the top roles, or at least spots in some sort of order, are really stalwarts either, with the least accomplished (Kevin Gausman) representing the one with the highest ceiling, and the best chance to anchor the rotation as an ace. To be clear, the Orioles aren’t necessarily needing to add a No. 5 starter so to speak, but a fifth starter; that is, wherever this pitcher fits in the rotation, he’ll be the one who rounds it out as full. Make sense?
As always, a trade remains a possibility. But predicting trades is a fool’s errand, and I have others to get to this afternoon. Maybe Andrew Cashner is an option? Pitching from any of the six or so rebuilding teams in the National League could prove interesting enough to make a deal. But as for names we’d like to look at today, let’s stick with guys who are free agents (Courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors):
SP Yovani Gallardo – Texas Rangers – RH
Pros: Easily the prize of remaining pitching free agents, durable with seven straight years of 30-plus starts and 180-plus innings, coming off solid first year making jump from NL to AL
Cons: Tied to draft pick compensation, declining strikeout rates and velocity before turning 30
Rotation Slot Filled: Probably something like the O’s No. 2 starter.
Guess at Financial Demands: Something like three or four years, $12-15 million per
Chances: Better now that Doug Fister landed in Houston. If it comes down to Colorado or the Orioles, I like Baltimore’s chances.
SP Mat Latos – Los Angeles Angels – RH
Pros: Probably the highest ceiling guy left, will spend entire season at age 28, has show durability in the past
Cons: Widely known as a bad clubhouse guy, saved his worst for last in 2015, hasn’t made 30 starts since 2013
Rotation Slot Filled: Honestly probably right in the middle.
Guess at Financial Demands: Odds are he’s unsigned because they’re too high. One year and $8 million with games started incentives makes a ton of sense, but if he was willing to do that, I suspect he’d be signed already.
Chances: At this point he’s pretty much a wild card in a lot of ways. Could Buck be the right manager to extract the most out of him? It makes sense to me, especially on a one-year deal to get more clarity on Bundy’s future, etc.
SP Kyle Lohse – Milwaukee Brewers – RH
Pros: cheap, durable, one year removed from four-year streak of sub-4.00 ERA seasons
Cons: was quite literally one of, if not the worst starters in the game last year, entering age-37 season
Rotation Slot Filled: Probably No. 5
Guess at Financial Demands: might be a minor league deal with $5 million base contingent on making team, something to that effect
Chances: If Gallardo and Latos are deemed too expensive — and hopefully that means the team signs another hitter — he could be near the top of the bargain bin. Not all that inspiring, is it?
SP Aaron Harang – Philadelphia Phillies – RH
Pros: durable, tall, simply won’t die
Cons: low ceiling and uninspiring, will be 38 for most of 2016 season
Rotation Slot Filled: No. 5
Guess at Financial Demands: He was a little better than Lohse last year so might be able to wrangle some guaranteed money, but it wouldn’t be much. Maybe $5 million
Chances: Probably about the same as Lohse
SP Alfredo Simon – Detroit Tigers – RH
Pros: Evaded shaky peripherals for a three-year run with a 3.16 ERA in 345 innings between 2012-14, low mileage on his arm despite age
Cons: Questionable back story, turns 35 in early season, coming off rough season
Rotation Slot Filled: No. 4 or 5
Guess at Financial Demands: Even just one year removed from being pretty good, he could be looking at a minor league deal with low MLB base salary once/if added to the 40-man roster.
Chances: Not very high.
SP Jeremy Guthrie – Kansas City Royals – RH
Pros: Cheap, long history of durability, familiarity after five years with Orioles
Cons: Coming off lowest IP total, age-37 season upcoming, ceiling is very low
Rotation Slot Filled: No. 5
Guess at Financial Demands: Similar to Simon, but for very different reasons
Chances: Due to familiarity, probably higher than Simon but still not overwhelmingly high.
As you can see, the market isn’t terribly strong for remaining starting pitchers. However, there is also no shortage of reclamation projects. Depending on the level of commitment and health, the O’s could look at Chad Billingsley, Josh Johnson, Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, Cory Luebke, Justin Masterson and Mike Minor. Of course, that would likely mean using said pitcher in the literal No. 5 spot, and not necessarily being able to count on those innings. In that case, it’s up to you the read and quite honestly the team as well to decide if that pushes the needle further.
That’s a reasonable question to ask. It sure looks like it’s Gallardo or bust, though.
Orioles Analyst
Warne is a Minnesota Twins beat reporter for 105 The Ticket’s Cold Omaha website as well as a sportswriter for Sportradar U.S. in downtown Minneapolis. He also contributes to FanGraphs / RotoGraphs.