This past off-season, the Baltimore Orioles acquired Mark Trumbo from Seattle in a move that was essentially a salary dump by the Mariners. The Orioles had been rumored to be going after Trumbo several times over the years and they finally got their man. While the Orioles didn’t give up much to acquire him, what they did do was take on his salary, which was projected to be (he was still waiting to sign his 1 year arbitration contract at the time of the deal) over 9 million dollars. For a guy who had only had 1 year of an OPS over .800, had never batted higher than .268, had a lower than preferred walk rate and a career OBP of just over .300, that seemed like a lot of money to pay, even if the O’s didn’t give up a lot of value to acquire him.

Add to that the fact that he isn’t a good defensive OFer and it looked worse. Now, at the time of the deal, the Orioles didn’t know what was going to happen with Davis and Trumbo, according to UZR, seems to be a capable defensive first baseman. When you look at it that way, it makes the deal look a tad better because he wouldn’t have been a liability on the defensive side of things.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Fast forward to today. Trumbo is coming off another good night against Yankee pitching. He currently has a slash line of 297/350/593/943. His wRC+ is 152. He’s still not good defensively and you would prefer him to be at DH but he hasn’t been a Geronimo Berroa dumpster fire out there in RF either. He is tied for the ML lead in homers and 6th in RBIs. His wOBA is 12th in all of MLB and his OPS is 13th. To say he is having a breakout year is an understatement.

In the off-season before the 2014 season, the Orioles signed Nelson Cruz for 8 million. It was a deal that turned out to be a steal and it was one they were able to sign because of the PED suspension Cruz had experienced the season before. When the Orioles let Cruz go to Seattle because they wanted to give him a 3-year deal and the Mariners were good with a 4-year deal, many Orioles fans were very upset. Combine that with Cruz having a very good year in 2015 and the Orioles struggling to get to .500 and many fans (unfairly) pointed to that decision as a big reason why the team didn’t make the playoffs.

So now, the Orioles could be a similar situation. Trumbo is a similar player as Cruz is. Big power, low average, strikes out a lot, doesn’t walk much. The difference is Trumbo is much younger. Trumbo will be 31 by the start of next season. Cruz turns 36 this July, so there is a large age difference. Can the Orioles allow Trumbo (assuming he continues to have a very good year) to walk this off-season? Cruz has always been a better offensive player than Trumbo has been. His career OPS of 847 is 75 points higher than Trumbo. Trumbo did play some of his career in pitchers parks and Cruz has only been in a pitchers park since he went to Seattle. Still, there is a big statistical difference there.

I think this is an interesting decision for the Orioles. As I said, assuming Trumbo continues to be a force offensively, he is going to be worth a qualifying offer. Some team will undoubtedly pay him very well if he has a 40+ homer, 875+ OPS season. Should that team be the Orioles?

To answer that question, I think the Manny Machado question should be answered. Get Machado signed, if you can, and then you can better project out the future impacts of Machado’s salaries on annual team payroll. It would be tough to give Trumbo 15-20M a year without knowing what is going on with Machado, especially when you consider some of the deals Baltimore gave out this off-season and what is left on the books for many players, not to mention the upcoming rising costs of some of the O’s good young talent once they hit arbitration.

If the Orioles can get these things done and they deem Trumbo worthy of a big deal and that doesn’t stop them from doing other things, I would be fine with it. However, I can’t see all of that happening and because of that, I can’t see offering him more than the 3/45 deal (maybe not even that much) they reportedly offered Cruz. I say that knowing that if I were in the seat of Dan Duquette, that I know he likely doesn’t sign that deal and I will hear a lot of backlash from the fans. I agreed with the team’s decision on not going 4 years for Cruz and I still think it was the right move.

If the Orioles do decide to give Trumbo a deal of 4/60-5/75, I think that’s a deal we would all be holding our breath on and just hoping that it doesn’t blow up in our faces.

Is this is a no win situation for the Orioles? Can they let Trumbo walk if he continues to have a big year? What do you think?

Rob Shields
Rob Shields

Rob has interviewed guests from outlets such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Athlon, Sporting News, MLB Network, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Info Solutions, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, Sports on Earth, Grantland, NFL Network, FanGraphs, Football Outsiders, ProFootballFocus, etc. etc. The Baltimore native lives in Perry Hall with his Wife Lindsay, and two young sons. He has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan, Q1370, and WNST 1570. Co-Host of The Warehouse: https://anchor.fm/the-warehouse Co-Host of Sports Tonight: https://anchor.fm/sports-tonight

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