With our usual apologies to former Baltimore Sun and current BaltimoreRavens.com writer, John Eisenberg, I present to you an Orioles addition of Fact/Opinion.

Fact: The Orioles are 2 games out of last place, after going 4-14 in their last 18 games. They have gone from .5 game up in first place to 4.5 games out and in third place. They are currently .5 game ahead of Tampa for 4th and 2 games ahead of Toronto for last.

Opinion: This team is in a lot of trouble. The schedule in June is very tough and they need to start winning again soon or they will be buried by July.

(You can discuss this article on the BSL board here.)

Fact: Manny Machado is having a poor season. His fWAR is .7. His OPS is .708. His OBP is under .300 and he is getting very close to being under the Mendoza line. The defense has still been very good though.

Opinion: As currently constructed, this team needs Manny to get back to his old ways. I feel he should be moved to first or second in the lineup. The stats tell us that he is most successful batting leadoff but that he is also better hitting second vs. third. This certainly could just be a coincidence and it’s not an overly large sample but it’s large enough that you can’t dismiss it. On top of that, its obvious his approach batting third is that he has to be the run producer, hit homers, etc.moving him up in the lineup could change his mental approach and get him back to using all fields, taking walks and hitting for a high average again. And if it doesn’t work, you have lost nothing because we don’t have any guys that are true top of the order hitters anyway, at least against both sides of the plate. Also, if you buy into lineup construction stats, they say your best hitter should bat 1 or 2 anyway.

Fact: The stats that show the Orioles to be near the bottom in most of the major offensive categories aren’t just because of the recent down trend. In April, when the team was rolling and had one of the best records in baseball, the offense wasn’t ranked higher than 7th in any of the major categories. Those categories included BA, OBP, slugging, wOBA, wRC+, homers, BABIP, Runs and OPS. On the pitching side, they didn’t rank higher than 9th in any of the major categories. Those included ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9, BB/9, HR rate, K/BB.

Opinion: The record at the beginning of the year was great and it has helped keep this team afloat for the time being. However, that record was masking some of the real issues with this team.

Fact: The Orioles bullpen has been the #1 reason why this team has been so good from 2012-2016. They were routinely ranked in the top 5 in several of the major categories and were normally top 3 in WPA. This year, they haven’t been as good. They are currently 6th in ERA. However, the gap between 5 and 6 is nearly a half run. The gap between 6th and 9th is a quarter run. Point being that they are much closer to being a below average pen than one of the best pens, at least by ERA. They are 6th in WPA however; the top 6 are well ahead of 7. Still, the Orioles aren’t anywhere near the top 3 in this category either.

Opinion: As important as Manny is, the importance of the bullpen regaining past excellence is even greater. With Britton out, they just aren’t as strong. O’Day, Givens and Brach seem to be getting themselves together and that’s huge but they need Britton back. We are also seeing why I felt Britton had a great case for league MVP last year.

Fact: With the Orioles farm system being so barren and the long term outlook not as good as you would like to see, the Orioles could use an infusion of young talent into the system.

Opinion: If the Orioles look to be out of it by July 1, it’s time to start fielding calls on Britton (assuming he is healthy and pitching well…you have the whole month of July), Brach, ODay, Manny and anyone else you can get value for that you likely lose in the next year or so. 2 outcomes make this season a success…A bunch of trades that signal a rebuild or getting to the playoffs. Anything in between is worthless to me. Buck may not be happy about it but you can’t let these pieces walk for nothing.

Fact: In the past 5 years, the Orioles have done a great job at handling the adversity of losing and finding a way to push the negativity aside and win games. This has been one of the things that Buck has brought to this organization. Its part of the culture change.

Opinion: The Orioles about to go through what could be the hardest month of baseball the Orioles have had since 2012. They have lost 14 out of 18 and the schedule doesn’t get easier. Can this team find a way to get its mojo back, something they have done so many times in recent years? This could be Buck’s hardest sell job to date.

Rob Shields
Rob Shields

Rob has interviewed guests from outlets such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Athlon, Sporting News, MLB Network, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Info Solutions, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, Sports on Earth, Grantland, NFL Network, FanGraphs, Football Outsiders, ProFootballFocus, etc. etc. The Baltimore native lives in Perry Hall with his Wife Lindsay, and two young sons. He has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan, Q1370, and WNST 1570. Co-Host of The Warehouse: https://anchor.fm/the-warehouse Co-Host of Sports Tonight: https://anchor.fm/sports-tonight

X