Can we get too caught up in the analytics?  Most fans, pundits, and analysts will look at a player and then see if he fits the model of a modern day baseball player.

Does he walk enough? Does he hit for power? Is he producing at a young enough age to give hope that his prime seasons will be worthy of committing to? Is he someone who projects to be sustainable for next five or so years?

They are certainly valid questions and have proven, over the past few decades, to be the hallmarks of winning organizations. But, has the industry gone too far in terms of statistical profiling?  And, more importantly, can a player who doesn’t fit the statistical mode offer enough value to a club?

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Truth be told, if you are asking those four evaluation questions about Hanser Alberto, the likely answer to all of those questions, at least at first glance, would be no.

Alberto has never walked much during his player career, which began as an 18 year old in the Texas Rangers system. During his breakout 2020 season, he walked at a 2.9% rate, compared to the Major League average of 8.5%. Through 15 games this season, he is walking at a 1.9% rate, compared to the sport’s average of 9.2%.

As for power, he hasn’t shown plus power at any point during his professional career. Although through 15 games this season, he is slugging at a .565 rate (MLB rate is .403). Three things should be noted. First, and most obviously, it’s just 15 games. That slugging is buoyed by the fact that he already has 9 doubles, which currently leads the league. Last season, in 139 games, he posted 21 doubles, 2 triples, and 12 home runs. And, third, which leads us to the question about the age, he is right in his prime years already. This period of his career is likely to be his most productive.

The sustainability question is hard to answer as well. Alberto may not have power, but he does possess above average contact ability. This season, he is making contact at an 86.2 percent rate, which ranks him 18th in Major League Baseball. On pitches thrown for strikes, that contact rate jumps up to 92.4%, 25th best in the Majors. It should be noted that the league average for contact percentage is 75%, while the contact with pitches thrown for strikes is 84.2%. Both numbers are similar to the 2019 season’s rates.

Making contact is definitely a skill and something that may be overlooked. However, Alberto’s approach does leave some questions about whether or not it can be sustained. For someone who makes above average contact, he does profile as someone with poor plate discipline. While being one for the best at making contact, Alberto, as evidenced by his walk rate, is not one who takes many pitches. His overall swing rate is 61.1%, compared to the Major League average of 45.2%. While his 77.5% swing rate at pitches thrown for strikes could be an indication of a good approach, that is somewhat negated by the fact that he swings at pitches outside the strike zone at a 47.6% clip, compared to the MLB average of 29.6%.

He is the very definition of a free swinger and with a .361 BABIP thus far, along with a 24.4% hard contact rate, there is, at least statistically, reason to believe that there is an element of luck. For context, consider Mookie Betts makes contact at a 90.7% rate, but he has a swing rate of just 37.9%. Other high contact players such as DJ LeMahieu, David Fletcher, and Tommy La Stella, all have higher contact rates than Alberto, but swing, on average, about 20 percent less.

This profile leads to a player who will struggle with on base percentage, despite having a high batting average. Or, his on base percentage will always be tied to his ability to make contact.

By the numbers—which is how players are primarily valued in the industry—Hanser Alberto doesn’t profile as a player who should be a part of a winning team for the long term. Perhaps he profiles as a bat off the bench given his penchant for making making contact. And, if you are selling a fanbase that you are in a rebuilding mode, committing to a player like Alberto seems counter-intuitive, especially considering that the farm system does look to have a bunch of middle infield prospects.

So, why am I having trouble saying that the Baltimore Orioles shouldn’t commit to Hanser Alberto?

By the metrics, it should be a no-brainer. But, he is, without question, the player that I am most drawn to on this Orioles team. Even with the Orioles surprising in the early going with an 9-7 record and with some intriguing young talent, it is Alberto that is a standout.

Is there a such thing as someone who provides more value than the metrics?

Or, is it dangerous to get sentimental about a player who is having fun every moment he’s on the field and who happens to be the best producer during a dark time in the franchise’s history?

The answer to both questions is yes. There are players who provide more than statistical production. There are good clubhouse guys, influencers, and those guys, even less talented, who keep the team focused on doing things the right way. And, yes, it is dangerous to allow sentimentality to drive decisions. General Manager Mike Elias doesn’t seem to be the sentimental type.

So, what should the Orioles do with their seemingly imperfect, unsustainable player who will hit arbitration next year at age 28 and be a free agent at age 30?

The analyst in me says you let it play out and try to trade him at some point. He won’t net a top prospect, but he could get some bulk, speculative prospects. Because he doesn’t have any plate discipline, one has to believe that the league will adjust.

But, the baseball fan in me wants to say sign him soon to a five year deal. That would buy out his remaining two arbitration years as well as his first three years of free agency. It should be relatively inexpensive to do this, perhaps something in the neighborhood of $5 million per season. That would not hinder the Orioles financially and it would keep a player who not only is a fan favorite, but someone who does bring some positive attributes, even statistically, warranting that extension.

I think the baseball fan is correct in this circumstance. There are outliers in every sport. Hanser Alberto could be one of them. Even if he isn’t, he still provides the Orioles qualities that they need.

Defensively, Alberto is slightly above average. Thus far at second base, he is a plus-1 according to defensive runs saved. That is something quite valuable, considering that the Orioles will be bringing up a bunch of young pitching prospects over the next few seasons. A solid to above average defender up the middle is important to their development.

There is that contact ability. While his approach isn’t the current industry standard, he does put the bat on the ball. There is value of that type of player in today’s modern game of filling lineups with mashers who either hit homers, walk, or strikeout. Even if the rise in slugging his merely a mirage—which it could be given this lack of hard contact—there is value in a middle infielder who could hit .275-.280, get on base around 30% of the time, puts the ball in play, and provide above average defense.

And, then there are those non-statistical things like leadership and having a player who plays the game hard each and every time he steps out on the field. That is valuable to club that is getting younger. While winning breeds culture, clubs can establish that culture of hard work with players like Hanser Alberto.

What happens if Alberto actually improves his process at the plate just a little? That could lead to better contact, a rise in extra base hits. Any improvement would allow him to continue to succeed like he did in 2019, which is likely his ceiling. But, that continuance would make the modest long term deal well worth it for the Orioles. A .300/.330/.425 slash line with 20 to 30 doubles out of an above average defender is valuable.

But, if he doesn’t improve and regresses a bit, to that .275 hitter described above, he is still worthy of that modest contract.

While the analytics say no, the Orioles do have a period of time where they could capitalize on Alberto’s skillset. They can make a modest bet that he’ll improve a bit, which would give them a solid base and an extremely cost effective second baseman as they transition more of their younger prospects to the Major Leagues. At worst, they pay a modest price for some stability, leadership, and someone who could be a role player on a good team.

Whatever the organization decides to do, one thing is for certain. The 2019-2020 version of Hanser Alberto is an absolute joy to watch. Right now, he is succeeding, defying the analytics. We all get to sit back and watch him play a game with such passion and success. Those qualities, along with even just modest production, are well worth having on a winning club.

20.5

At 9-7, the Orioles look like a virtual lock to exceed their over-under projection. They are getting great production from their catchers, Alberto, Jose Iglesias, and Renato Nunez. Austin Hays is showing some signs of improvement, while providing some great defense. Anthony Santander hasn’t yet shown improvement from last season, but he hasn’t regressed either. The club ranks third in the AL in on base percentage and first in batting average. In an extremely odd season, there is now a reason to believe that the Orioles could, possibly, sneak their way into a playoff.

Gary Armida
Gary Armida

Orioles Analyst

First and foremost, a Father. After that, I am a writer and teacher who not only started my own company and published an i-magazine as well as a newsletter, but have been published by USA Today, Operation Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Digest, Gotham Baseball Magazine, and numerous other publications. As an educator, I have 20 years of classroom experience and am utilizing that experience in my current position as department coordinator. Wrote the book The Teacher And The Admin (https://theteacherandtheadmin.com/the-book/) and operate that website which is dedicated to making education better for kids.

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