NFL Talk As The 2nd Quarter Begins

The 2nd Quarter of the 2015 NFL season has begun. To review what we’ve seen so far, and to preview what awaits; Baltimore Sports and Life (BSL) has reached out to Football Outsiders Assistant Editor Scott Kacsmar for his thoughts.

Our thanks to Scott for participating in this Q&A.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Baltimore Sports and Life: The AFC East has been interesting so far. Philbin fired in Miami. The Jets showing a strong defense, without the benefit of Sheldon Richardson. Buffalo sporting good talent, and looking improved overall. Still, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where New England doesn’t comfortably win the AFC East for the 7th consecutive year, considering New York has Fitzpatrick at QB, and the Patriots have already won at Buffalo. 

Who do you like better between the Jets and Bills? In addition to being likely to win the East, the Patriots seem likely to obtain home field advantage in the AFC Playoffs. Would you take New England or the field to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 50?

Kacsmar: The Jets and Bills are pretty close right now. We have Buffalo ranked 8th in DVOA and the Jets are 9th. Buffalo has a better offense, but the Jets are better on defense. I would probably lean towards the Bills, because I just can’t trust Ryan Fitzpatrick. He throws way too many risky passes that should be intercepted. They can rely on defense, but he’s not even a careful game manager. I would also feel better about the Jets if I knew Eric Decker and Chris Ivory could stay healthy. Decker always seems to be banged up, and Ivory’s rushing style is so physical that you just do not expect him to last a full season at a high volume of carries. He was fantastic against the Dolphins, but how long can it last? I think Buffalo has more to work with offensively, but LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins need to stay healthy. Tyrod Taylor has been a pleasant surprise so far. I may actually trust him more than Fitzpatrick, which is why I prefer the Bills in the long-term, but I frankly don’t see either team making an impact in January.

I guess I would take New England over the field in the AFC right now. It’s been a great start for the Patriots and a not so great one for the rest of the conference with struggles from Kansas City, Miami, Indianapolis and Baltimore. The Steelers don’t have a championship-caliber defense, and the Ben Roethlisberger injury could tank their season. The Broncos need to get a lot better on offense, because that’s a team who actually has a shot to beat the Patriots. Then you have the Bengals, who look really good, but no one is going to have faith in them in the playoffs until they prove they can win a game there.

Baltimore Sports and Life: There wasn’t a lot to like about the first four games for the Colts. Luck had 9 turnovers in the first 3 games. The Pagano / Grigson disconnect got a lot of attention. The defense has clear limitations. That said, they reside in the AFC South, so they have plenty of time to get things corrected. Even with Andre Johnson looking his age, Hilton / Moncreif / Dorsett / and Gore is good talent surrounding Luck. Some have jumped from the Luck bandwagon, but I see a guy that’s still one of the five or so guys you would choose to start a franchise with. Do you expect the Colts to factor in the AFC Playoffs?

Kacsmar: It’s been an ugly start for the Colts, but I think by season’s end they can still be a factor thanks to the division keeping them a favorite for a home playoff game. This team can beat a Pittsburgh or Buffalo at home in January. Andrew Luck can always get hot again and steal a game. The defense is very inconsistent, but there’s enough talent to get up for one unexpected game like it did against the Broncos last year. The only team I think the Colts stand no chance against is New England. Even if the run defense has solid numbers, the Colts still get trampled by the Patriots’ running game. I expect Tom Brady to try dropping 60 on them next week, and he may get 80 percent of the way there. I think the failure to do anything against the Patriots will be the final nail in Chuck Pagano’s tenure with the team.

Baltimore Sports and Life: When the Colts knocked the Broncos out of the Playoffs last January, there was a lot of discussion that Denver’s window had closed. Currently they are 4-0. Good offensive weapons, and a quality pass rush. Despite Manning’s quick release, the O-line appears weak, and the running game with CJ Anderson has yet to get on-track. What do you think the ceiling is for Denver? As the weather cools, do you trust Manning’s arm?

Kacsmar: Watching Manning in Denver has always been an odd experience even going back to 2012. He once in a while looks like the Indianapolis quarterback of past years, but there clearly has been a decline in arm strength following four neck surgeries. His anticipation is just outstanding and the ball still seems to get there, which is crazy considering he has no feeling in his fingertips on his throwing hand. But there are plenty of times where you see him barely get a throw in there or miss one that makes you think this offense has no chance in January. The last two playoff games (Indy and Super Bowl XLVIII) were obviously bad, but overall we haven’t seen a full dismantling of the offense late in the season. Still, good defenses are going to be able to jam his receivers, throw off the timing and slow this offense down.

Everyone knows about the current problems with the offensive line and running game, but I think Gary Kubiak can help improve that in time. What may be a bigger problem right now is the lack of a third receiving option, especially in the slot. Since Manning ascended to a level where he could win MVP every year since 2003, he always had a capable slot receiver or tight end to win quickly over the middle for high-percentage plays. That was Brandon Stokley, Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez, Austin Collie, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas. This Denver offense doesn’t have that player. Andre Caldwell never seems to be on the same page as Manning. Cody Latimer can’t even get on the field. Owen Daniels looks as old and slow as Manning. They are relying on guys like Bennie Fowler and Jordan Norwood now. Maybe Fowler can be the answer, but that’s something that I feel is holding this offense back. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are great outside receivers, but you can’t hit jump balls to them every week. Manning’s not hitting the deep throws like he was early last season either, so the passing game is a bit limited. He also needs to clean up the interceptions. This defense is so good that he can get by with doing less than in past years, but the current construction of the offense is still pressuring him to do a lot at age 39. Denver can win a Super Bowl if the defense and running game show up in the playoffs, but I’m only sold on the defense so far.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Dez Bryant has a chance to return after the Week 6 bye. Tony Romo is not eligible to return until Week 11. Due to those injuries, is Eli Manning and the Giants the favorite in the NFC East? Philadelphia is still trying to get a ground game going with DeMarco Murray. Kiko Alonso, and Mychal Kendricks are getting closer to returning at LB for the Eagles. Do you expect Chip Kelly’s crew to play better going forward?

Kacsmar: The Dallas injuries have certainly opened up the NFC East to all four teams. Philadelphia has been a huge disappointment, but I’m not surprised Sam Bradford is playing basically the same as he did in St. Louis. I am not a big Nick Foles fan, but at least he has proven success in this league and in Chip Kelly’s offense. That trade still doesn’t make sense to me. Kelly has really put this season on his shoulders with all the questionable moves, including several for players with injury histories. Once again, Kiko Alonso is out. DeMarco Murray has been a major failure in this offense, though a lot of it has to do with the blocking, which also wasn’t that great for stretches last year. I think Eagles fans have a lot to be worried about, because Kelly’s offense has largely not produced against better defenses in this league. He has still managed to stack 10-6 seasons without a great quarterback, but this 1-3 start looks like a direct result of too many bad roster changes.

I like the Giants as the favorite right now. The star power isn’t there on defense, but they still rank ninth in DVOA. Eli Manning is playing solid football even without a strong running game. Odell Beckham is a threat to have a monster game in any given week, and Victor Cruz should return eventually. If the Giants can get to 5-2, I think we’ll see them cruise a bit in the NFC East. The Romo injury, among others, is going to be too much to overcome for Dallas.

Baltimore Sports and Life: The Packers have raced out to a 4-0 start, behind an offense which generates plenty of headlines. Their defense is also currently performing at a high level. Is there anything you do not like about Green Bay?

Kacsmar: It’s really the same thing every year. I still don’t trust Mike McCarthy and the Packers to make the necessary adjustments in a game when things don’t start well. If you can force them into a slugfest, they don’t respond as well as other contenders would. If Aaron Rodgers doesn’t start a game on fire, I don’t expect him to find his rhythm later. Can a team like Seattle or Arizona go into Green Bay and make that happen? I think so. I know the Patriots could on a neutral field. The year Green Bay won, the defense was one of the best in the league. In the playoffs that defense had three big interception returns for touchdowns and a game-ending interception in the end zone against Philadelphia. If they can play that level of defense again, then this is a Super Bowl favorite, but that 2010 season still looks like the outlier for this defense.

Baltimore Sports and Life: After an ugly 2014 season, the NFC South currently has two teams with unblemished records. With Devonta Freeman, and Tevin Coleman (returned to practice this week), the Falcons have more balance to their offense. Matt Ryan is clearly capable, and Julio Jones is one of the elite play makers in the game. How do you evaluate the Atlanta defense? The Panthers start has surprised me. They didn’t have a lot of offensive talent even before the Benjamin injury. The defense is strong (especially if Luke Kuechly returns from his concussion), but I’m not expecting Carolina to have staying power. How much credit should Cam Newton get for this opening month?

Kacsmar: Atlanta’s had the firepower in the passing game, but a revamped offensive line is bringing results with Devonta Freeman in the running game. Dan Quinn needed to fix the defense first and foremost. They have been inconsistent to say the least this season, but some timely stops have aided this 4-0 start. The main thing to like about Atlanta is that schedule. I am not predicting 16-0, but there seriously is not a game on that schedule where Atlanta should be anything bigger than a 3-point underdog (maybe the game at Carolina). Matt Ryan and Matt Bryant are two of the best closers in the game, so the Falcons always have a shot even when things get off to a rough start. I don’t think this team’s overall talent stacks up with the best in the NFC, but the Falcons should seriously contend for a first-round bye thanks to playing a Charmin-soft schedule.

Carolina is playing a similar schedule, though I don’t think the team has been as impressive in getting to 4-0. We have Atlanta ranked fifth in DVOA compared to the Panthers at 10th. The defense is doing well, though we actually watched Luke McCown go into that building and complete 31-of-38 passes with three drops. I don’t think the defense is on par with the 2013 unit that powered that team to the playoffs, but a healthy Luke Kuechly would help. As for Cam Newton, I think he’s doing the same things he always has. No matter how much help you give him (better offensive line play) or how much you take away (lack of receiving power), he plays about the same every season. Right now he ranks 24th in passing DVOA and 23rd in ESPN’s QBR metric. That’s just slightly better than where he was a year ago in an injury-plagued season. When people put him in the MVP conversation this year, I frankly have no idea why. We just watched him throw for 124 yards against Tampa Bay where he gift-wrapped an interception for Lavonte David in the red zone, but the linebacker dropped it. It’s the same old Newton, which means a mixture of highlight-worthy plays and drive-stalling sloppiness and inaccuracy. This team will go as far as it defense goes.

Baltimore Sports and Life: The NFC West figures to be a fight until the end. Seattle looking to get back to the Super Bowl for a 3rd consecutive season. Arizona with an elite defense, and a resurgent Carson Palmer. St. Louis with a strong Front 7, and now the ability to ground and pound with Gurley. Two West teams reaching the post-season seems likely. What % chance do you give to the West having three representatives?

Kacsmar: Let’s go 19.8% on all three making the playoffs. That is actually a real calculation from the current playoff odds on our site. Personally, I do not believe in the Rams as a playoff team. The same team that beat Seattle and Arizona lost to Washington and scored six points at home against Pittsburgh. I see Jeff Fisher as the king of mediocrity and there’s almost an unwritten rule that his teams must hover around .500. I do like the addition of Todd Gurley to the running game, but that team is far too inconsistent for me to trust them as a contender. The 4-0 starts by Carolina and Atlanta also make it less likely for the NFC West to get three representatives, though I do think the NFC North and NFC East will only supply one playoff team each.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Last year’s AFC North had three reps in the playoffs. Between Baltimore starting 0-3, the Roethlisberger injury in Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati’s own play; the Bengals are in great position to reach the post season for the 5th straight year. Andy Dalton has showed he his good enough to help the Bengals reach the Playoffs. Is this the year he shows he is capable of winning in the Post season? Do you like the Bengals talent overall better than New England, Indianapolis, Denver – but feel Dalton stands out when those teams counter with Brady, Luck, and Manning?

Kacsmar: I have written several offseason pieces on the AFC North in the last two years about team weaknesses. I rarely come up with anything to say for Cincinnati other than the quarterback needs to improve. The roster is really well constructed, and they even made moves in the draft this year to secure offensive line starters for the future. Those are really luxury picks that only a team with a solid roster can consider doing. But Dalton is playing very well right now (second in DVOA and DYAR). The Bengals have beaten pretty much every major contender in the regular season with Dalton at quarterback. Seattle can be the latest team to add to that list if the Bengals win on Sunday. But those are all regular-season games, and no one will give the Bengals credit until they do it in January. I feel the talent is there, and it’s just a matter of playing well in that big game. The Bengals have had horrible playoff results under Marvin Lewis. They have not led in the fourth quarter of any of his six playoff games. About the closest this team has come to a playoff win was Dalton overthrowing A.J. Green in Houston in the 2012 season. I’d take Cincinnati’s talent over that of the Colts for sure, but I think there’s a major disadvantage at coach and quarterback compared to New England. The Broncos seem better defensively, and Manning could be more effective in Gary Kubiak’s offense later in the season. With that said, the Bengals are poised to win the AFC North, which means a home playoff game against a lower seeded team they should be capable of beating. If it doesn’t happen this year, I don’t think it’s ever going to happen for this team with Lewis and Dalton.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Pittsburgh has plenty of skill position talent. If Roethlisberger doesn’t miss too much time, it’s not hard to envision the Steelers doing damage in January. Thoughts on the Steelers?

Kacsmar: I can’t see Pittsburgh doing any better than 9-7, which may not be enough for the playoffs this year. The Roethlisberger injury really happened at a terrible time, because these are the games on the schedule that were all winnable with a healthy Ben. Now with Michael Vick, I’ll be surprised if the Steelers are better than 3-5 halfway through the season. Then after the Week 11 bye, the Steelers have a really tough schedule with games that will be very difficult even with Roethlisberger: at Seattle, Indy, at Cincinnati, Denver, at Baltimore, at Cleveland. That’s why the Steelers had to stack wins before the bye, but that’s unlikely to happen with Vick. Even with all the skill-player talent, the Steelers have red zone issues and kicker issues, already bringing in a fourth kicker in 2015. The defense has not been a total failure as expected, but playing the Rams and 49ers helped. Let’s see how they handle Philip Rivers at home on Monday night. I didn’t see the 2015 Steelers as a Super Bowl contender due to the lack of defense, but once you start factoring in all the big-name injuries, just getting to 9-7 will be a real accomplishment.

Baltimore Sports and Life: The Ravens started the year 0-3. Each of the losses being within the conference. Terrell Suggs was lost for the year, hurting the pass rush, the defenses ability to set the edge, and so far has impacted the team ‘energy.’

Baltimore has some complimentary offensive talent, but lacks elite play makers. Best case scenario, the running game builds off what they did against Pittsburgh, and becomes consistent. That sets up play-action to the TE’s Crockett Gillmore, and Rookie Maxx Williams. The broken bones Smith Sr. is dealing with, remains a pain tolerance issue, and he’s ready to jump back in action after the Cleveland game. Breshad Perriman joins the roster after the bye, and proves to be a regular threat down the field. That the O-line looks more like the unit it was hailed to be, when Eugene Monroe returns from his concussion. 

Defensively Brandon Williams, Carl Davis, and Timmy Jernigan have a lot of promise, and need to control the action from the D-line. CJ Mosley is one of the best in the game at MLB. Elvis Dumervil has that much more attention on him after the Suggs injury, but should remain effective. Rookie Za’Darius Smith provided some 3rd down pass rush against Pittsburgh, and will be needed to continue to factor going forward.

The Secondary has had issues (especially when the rush in-front of them has been spotty), but the group as a whole is better than last year. With each week, Jimmy Smith gets closer to the All-Pro level he was playing at prior to his injury last year.

Including Sunday, the Ravens have 7 home games remaining. It will probably take 9 or 10 wins to reach the Playoffs in the AFC. Can the Ravens get there?

Kacsmar: You detailed a lot of the reasons why the team should get better, but I still think the bad start leaves them short in the end at about 8-8. The losses have been close for sure, but they still go down as losses and the injuries have been pretty unkind to this team as well. The good news is some of the toughest remaining games (SD/SEA/PIT/KC) are all at home. The offense should be more than formidable if it can get Steve Smith, Breshad Perriman and Crockett Gillmore all playing together. Even without Suggs there is still a lot of talent in the front seven. I still trust John Harbaugh as one of the best coaches in the NFL. The Ravens will remain relevant into December, but it’s a bad September that can cost you the playoffs in this league.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Current Award winners?  MVP, OPOY, DPOY, ROY, COY?

Kacsmar: I usually wait another month to start looking at these, but…
MVP – Aaron Rodgers
OPOY – Julio Jones
DPOY – Josh Norman
ROY – Amari Cooper
COY – Dan Quinn

Baltimore Sports and Life: Current Super Bowl pick?

Kacsmar: It’s pretty cliche, but Packers-Patriots, which probably means Bengals-Giants for all we know at this point. You don’t want to peak early.