A popular name on the Baltimore Sports and Life message board is Jeff Samardzija. Recently, BSL owner Chris Stoner wrote an article on why the Orioles should sign him and Scott Kazmir. I can get behind the idea of Kazmir, depending on the deal. He is a very solid pitcher, isn’t going to get a crazy contract and won’t potentially cost us our first round pick.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

OTOH, Jeff Samardzija comes with a lot of issues. First of all, he will cost us our first round pick. To some, that doesn’t matter and you can argue that if Samardzija gets back to his old self, it will have been worth the lost pick. Secondly, he is getting older and already on the wrong side of 30. Now, because of his failed attempt at football, he doesn’t quite have the mileage on his arm that many 31 y/o (how old he will be once the season starts) pitchers do but still, he is getting older. BTW, the same could be said for Kazmir but again, the commitment won’t be as long to sign him.

Beyond those few things, Samardzija is also coming off a pretty bad year. Now, that’s not as big a deal if you believe he has a good chance to bounce back, which I think he does. He had a K rate drop of almost 1.5 Ks per 9 IP and his GB rate plummeted from a 1.64 to a .98. As Chris mentioned in his article, he got away from throwing the sinker and 2 seamer for some reason. The reason for that needs to be figured out and whoever signs him, should have him throwing that again unless there is a reason he can’t.

Now, we all agree that the Orioles need to add pitching but is Samardzija the right guy? IMO, he is not. My top FA pitching target (and when I say that, I am basing that on the idea the Orioles aren’t going to go after one of the top guys) would be Mat Latos. I brought him up in a previous article I wrote and feel he is the ideal guy for the Orioles.

When comparing Latos to Samardzija, a few things jump out. First of all, Latos is 3 years younger. Secondly, most reports have him taking a 1-year deal to re-establish value. Now, I would actually prefer a 1-year deal with an option or even 2 years with an option but it makes sense for him to take a 1-year deal. And, of course, he will not cost us a draft pick.  He also could net us a draft after next season if he has a good enough year to warrant a QO.

Of course, those things are nice but if you want to get back to contending, performance trumps all of those things. So, is Samardzija a better pitcher than Latos? Is he a better bet to bounce back? I personally don’t think so. Latos is also coming off a bad year. He spent the year with 3 different organizations and has now been with 5 ML teams.

When comparing the 2 pitchers in terms of performance, the first thing that jumps out to me is the recent IP totals. Samardzija has been a consistent 200+ IP guy for the last 3 seasons. Latos, who had 4 straight years of pitching 184-209 innings, has struggled the last 2 years to even get over 100 IP. He only has 37 starts the last 2 years and appeared in 3 more games as a reliever. Compare that to Samardzija who has 65 starts the last 2 years and that’s a huge win for Samardzija when discussing these 2 pitchers. Now, it does appear that the injury that has kept him has been his knee. If the knee checks out now, that’s good news and certainly better than anything to do with his elbow or shoulder. He also claims that the Reds rushed him back and that has led to some of his issues.

In terms of performance on the field, I would argue that Latos was the better pitcher in 2015. First of all, they both had basically the same ERA. Latos’ FIP and xFIP were .50 run better than the numbers Samardzija posted. Latos struck out almost 1 full batter more per 9 IP. He also had a better HR rate and a much better GB rate (although if Samardzija gets back to where he was, that difference will go away). Latos had a 2.48 BB rate but Samardzija had a 2.06, so he has the edge there although Latos still had a very good rate there. They both missed bats at a similar rate. Latos also had an unluckier BABIP, when you compare it to their career numbers. Also, Latos has been the better pitcher in their careers. He has had a higher WAR, better walk rate, better HR rate and the K rates are practically identical but Samardzija has a very slight lead. Latos also has the better career FIP and xFIP. Samardzija has the lead in GB rate.

All in all, they are pretty similar pitchers. When one is better than the other in a given category, its not a huge difference.  While I believe Latos is more likely to bounce back, I feel both of these guys will have good seasons in 2016.  For me, it goes back to what I have already mentioned. Latos is much younger, doesn’t cost a pick and isn’t going to cost the team a huge, long term deal.  Those 3 things separate Latos from Samardzija and many other pitchers in this free agent class.

Rob Shields
Rob Shields

Rob has interviewed guests from outlets such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Athlon, Sporting News, MLB Network, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Info Solutions, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, Sports on Earth, Grantland, NFL Network, FanGraphs, Football Outsiders, ProFootballFocus, etc. etc. The Baltimore native lives in Perry Hall with his Wife Lindsay, and two young sons. He has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan, Q1370, and WNST 1570. Co-Host of The Warehouse: https://anchor.fm/the-warehouse Co-Host of Sports Tonight: https://anchor.fm/sports-tonight

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