There are many NFL quarterbacks who we forecast growth onto, and what makes Lamar Jackson a little bit special is that we’re already seeing some of it. Let me qualify that statement.
If 2018 Lamar Jackson were plopped into the 2019 offense, it would be struggling. Most NFL teams, once they get to see their quarterback of the future up close for a year, understand how to build a better offense for them. As an example, Josh Allen of the Bills has a much better completion percentage this year: he’s up from 52.8% to 62.6%. But what has actually happened is that the Bills have put some NFL-quality receivers on the field with him, then decreased his deep throw rate. Allen led the NFL in 2018 by averaging 11.0 intended yards per target. In 2019, that’s down to 8.7, which is 11th among quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts. So his numbers have improved on easier targets, but I would argue that a lot of the raw input that Allen offers is mostly unchanged. He’s still taking a ton of sacks, he’s still throwing a lot of picks, and his rushing is actually down.
With Jackson, I think we see noticeable improvements in his short and medium-range accuracy, as well as his ability to handle the blitz. These have added up to make him a much more successful thrower than he was last season, and when you combine what he does as a runner, I think you can call him an above-average NFL quarterback already.
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If we look at Jackson’s accuracy between 10-20 yards through the first five weeks of this season, he is 17-of-32 for 540 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. If we look at his stats on throws to that depth last year, they were at 25-of-53 for 405 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. I think those raw stats understate the difference he’s made as well. One source I like to come back to is No Checkdowns’ database, which is 100% human charted. By their measurements, Jackson was 76.8% accurate on throws of 1-10 yards in 2018, and 52.1% accurate on throws of 11-20 yards last year. In 2019, those numbers are up to 85.4% and 61.5%, respectively.
Even in Jackson’s biggest test so far, against the Chiefs in Kansas City, he was mostly accurate on his shorter throws. It was the deep ball that eluded him a bit.
Baltimore’s opponents have come out loaded with aggression to try to stop Jackson early in the season. Jackson faced 51 blitzes in seven starts last season. He’s already faced 56 in five this year. But Jackson is killing them with smart reads. In 2018, No Checkdowns charted Jackson as throwing three interceptable passes and with a 63.9% accuracy rate on blitzes. In 2019, those numbers are zero and 78.0%. For reference, that 78% puts him between Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson.
What’s left?
It feels a little greedy to ask for another step forward, but I think the next area of growth for Jackson will be settling in on not making so many mistakes.
One thing that I think every fan of a young quarterback needs to learn is to have patience with the trials and tribulations of the mental side of the game. Even second-year quarterbacks struggle at times with what is put on their plate — just look at what is happening to Baker Mayfield this year. NFL defenses need time to put together a dossier on you, and once they do, they attack.
Most promising NFL quarterbacks have never been in a position where they have been anything less than the best athlete on their team, and are used to that athleticism carrying them. Jackson has taken 15 sacks in five starts — he took 16 in eight starts last year. He’s still learning when and how he can run. The only way for a player to know how to test the rules is to learn first-hand, and that involves making some mistakes.
The same goes for Jackson’s five interceptions. I know fans are worried after the last two weeks, but he has to make those mistakes to know the rules of the road for his talent. Given that he has been entirely rebuilt as a quarterback this year, that means he has a whole new set of rules to learn. Note that he has thrown the ball away just four times all this season per NoCheckdowns’ charting — he did that 10 times last season despite only eight more total pass attempts.
The good news for the Ravens is that, outside of having an established star wideout on the team somehow, this is the perfect incubation chamber for a young quarterback right now. Baltimore has one of the best young offensive tackle duos in the game, and they have a running attack that is the envy of half the league and can keep pressure off Jackson in most games. They don’t need Jackson to be amazing to win every week.
But now that Jackson has expanded his repertoire as a passer, he now needs to learn how to shrink it again. The only way he’ll know what he can’t do long-term is to drive you crazy with it in 2019.
I want to stop one last time and say: It’s rare that the quarterback is growing at all. Not every young quarterback does. I’m highly encouraged by the growth that Jackson is already showing. But are you going to see more mistakes in the short-term? Probably so.
Ravens Analyst
Rivers McCown is a writer and editor who has written for ESPN.com, Bleacher Report, USA Today, and Deadspin, among other places. He’s edited for Football Outsiders, Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue.