Kazmir & Samardzija

With apologies for becoming repetitive, I’m on the Scott Kazmir and Jeff Samardzija bandwagon this Winter. Here we give expanded looks at both, giving our rationale of why.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

While respecting what happens when you ‘assume’, the assumption from everyone is that Wei-Yin Chen will not be in an O’s uniform in ’16. Losing Chen means the existing rotation is devoid of a lefty. It also means that the O’s lose a guy that threw for at-least 185 innings in 3 of the last 4 seasons. That consistency in regularly taking the ball, and giving the O’s a chance to win, is going to serve Chen well as a Free Agent. It’s also going to be something the O’s have to overcome.

As of today, Tuesday November 10th the Baltimore Orioles 2016 rotation is comprised of Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Miguel Gonzalez. If the season had to begin today, the 5th starter would be either Mike Wright, or Tyler Wilson.

Tillman should be better than he was in 2015. Gonzalez might be. Gausman has a chance to be a front-end starter, and really take a leap production wise.

Overall though, the bottom-line is that the aforementioned group does not scream out, “Contender.”  In-fact what stands out the most is that the O’s 2015 rotation (which ranked 14th in the American League in Starter’s ERA) will be trying to improve in ’16 without their best starter of this past year.

So, where does that leave the O’s?

Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Dan Duquette, and Manager Buck Showalter have said they plan to contend in ’16.

There are multiple ways to build a roster, but an obvious point is that contention won’t occur without rotation improvement.

I said above I expect Tillman to be better. I think Gausman has the ceiling to be a Top 15 overall Major League starter if he refines a 3rd pitch. I think Gonzalez can be better than he was in ’15.

You can’t count on any of that.

You certainly can’t go into a season with Wright or Wilson penciled into the rotation, and feel good about your chances. I’m sure the O’s agree in that regard. It makes sense when looking at a snap shot of the roster today to include them; but it will take numerous injuries in Spring Training next year for either to break camp as part of the starting staff.

So again, where does this leave the O’s?

The lowest risk move would be to target the veteran starters who would only be looking for (and can only command) shorter-term, limited dollar deals. The guys that figure to be better than Wright or Wilson, with the upside to be more than 5th starters. My BSL Colleagues Rob Shields, and Jonathan Bernhardt have both suggested Mat Latos. Bernhardt additionally mentioned Bartolo Colon, and J.A. Happ (albeit at 3 years, $24M representing a longer deal, and more $ than I’m personally comfortable with.

If the odds of Chen returning to Baltimore are slim-to-none; the chances of the Orioles signing Zack Greinke, David Price, Johnny Cueto, or Jordan Zimmermann is somehow even less than that.

Before even looking at the starters more in-depth, to me this process of elimination leads to Kazmir, and Samardzija.

Meaning if you aren’t going to compete for the best difference makers in the Free Agent Starting Pitching market, but you want guys with better odds than contributing something of significance vs. the lowest risk / ceiling guys; Kazmir and Samardzija represent the best available bets.

Best available bets does not mean there is no risk.

Kazmir is not that long removed from multiple years of arm trouble. He was also mediocre after being traded to Houston this past Summer. Samardzija carries the reputation of being a guy that has continually failed to live up to expectations.

So, what do we like?

Kamir:
DOB: 1/24/84
6′, 185lbs
LHP

2013: 10-9, 158 ip, 162 hits, 19 hr’s, 47 bb’s, 162 k’s, .735 OPS against, 40.9 GB%, 3.36 xFIP,
2014: 15-9, 190.1ip, 171 hits, 16 hr’s, 50 bb’s, 164 k’s, .648 OPS against, 43.8 GB%, 3.59 xFIP
2015: 7-11, 183ip, 162 hits, 20 hr’s, 59 bb’s, 155 k’s, .678 OPS against, 42.9 GB%, 4.14 xFIP

How much will Kazmir cost?  MLBTR predicts he gets a 4 year, $52M contract. CBS Sports predicts he gets a 3 year, $39M contract.

By comparison, both MLBTR and CBS Sports has Chen at 5 years, $80M. To me, Kazmir represents a strong replacement for Chen. I think Kazmir has a higher ceiling, but also more flame out potential. I think Chen’s higher floor is being appreciated in the above salary projections.

Swooping in now, and wrapping up Kazmir in that 3 to 4 year, $39-$52M range seems like a smart decision to me. His fWAR in ’13 was 2.7 (worth $19.9M in production according to FanGraphs). In ’14 his fWAR was 3.2, worth $24.1M in production. In ’15, his fWAR was 2.4, worth $19M in production.

You aren’t paying for that prior performance, but I think he would at-least provide equal value to those contracts. It’s reasonable to be scared off by his prior arm trouble (and paying for his age 32, 33, 34, and possibly age 35 seasons); it’s also reasonable to think he might out-produce his contract.

Are there reasons for pause? His fastball velocity has dipped from 92.1 in ’13, to 91.5 in ’15. His K% in that time has dropped from 24.1% to 20.3%. I’m not overly bothered by either, because he has one of the best change-ups by velocity and movement in the game. Also because his Swinging Strike percentage was actually higher in ’15 vs. ’13.

Signing Kazmir would get the O’s rotation essentially back even to where they ended ’15, and the focus can return to improving.

The chance to improve, would then lead me to Samardzija.

A logical retort would be, how does adding a guy with 4.96 ERA (2015), who also led the Majors in hits and ER allowed – improve things?

If that’s what Samardzija is going forward, the answer is you don’t improve.

My take is that his 2015 season was the slight outlier, and what makes obtaining him plausible. If he had a year more at his expected levels; he would have been in that tier with Cueto and Zimmermann, and outside the reach of the O’s.

Let’s take a further look at him.

Samardzija:
DOB: 1/23/85
6’5, 225 lbs
RHP

2013: 8-13, 4.34 ERA, 213.2 ip, 210 hits,25 hr’s,78 bb’s, 214 k’s, .736 OPS against, 48.2 GB%, 3.45 xFIP
2014: 7-13, 2.99 ERA, 219.2 ip,191 hits,20 hr’s, 43 bb’s, 202 k’s, .646 OPS against, 50.2 GB%, 3.07 xFIP
2015: 11-13, 4.96 ERA, 214 ip, 228 hits,29 hr’s, 49 bb’s, 163 k’s, .765 OPS against, 39 GB%, 4.31 xFIP

He has lost 13 games four straight seasons. He has a career record 14 games under .500. I won’t go full Brian Kenny here with #killthewin, but that doesn’t scare me off.

If you have apprehension with his age, I’d counter with the minimal career innings on his arm.

He’s athletic. He’s going to eat innings for at-least the first 2-3 years of his deal. If his GB% goes back to his career norms (44.5%); he’s going to benefit in-front of the O’s infield defense.

MLBTR projects him to receive a 5 year, $80M contract. CBS Sports projects 5 years, $85M.

His fWAR in ’13 was 2.7M (worth $19.9M in production). His fWAR in ’14 was 4.1 (worth $31.3M in production). His fWAR in ’15 was 2.7 (worth $21.3M in production).

Think about that. By most measures, Samardzija struggled in ’15, and he was still providing good value. At $85M over 5 years, you are talking about $17M annually. I think the odds are good that he will provide 70% of that contracts value over the initial 3 years of the deal.

Is there reason to think he won’t?

He averaged 94.6 MPH on his Fastball in both ’13, and ’14. While that dropped in ’15, are you hearing alarm bells with that 94.3MPH level?

Pitch F/X shows his 2 seam / sinker was used 24.1% to 27.7% of the time in ’13 and ’14. That dropped to 8.8% in ’15. At the same time, his cutter was used 11.2% to 13.4% of the time during those two years, but increased to 20.2% in ’15.

I’d spend sometime looking further at that. 

The decrease in his Swinging Strike % (12.1% in 2012, to 9.8% in ’15) is a negative, but not enough to push me from pursuing him in Free Agency.

What happens if you sign Kazmir, and Samardzija? You’ve improved the depth, and ceiling of the staff. 

Samardzjia, Kazmir, Tilllman, Gausman, Jimenez… with Gonzalez* in the bullpen, and Wright (either in the bullpen or AAA), and Wilson (AAA) also as reserve starters.

*Some don’t like the idea of Gonzalez in the bullpen, I think it’s ideal. There is never going to be a season where he gives you 200 innings. Every year you are going to need more than your 5 starters. Having him available in reserve, with the ability to limit his innings early on in a season seems like a best case scenario to me. Even with a decent price tag attached.

As I wrote previously (in the initial link above), I planned on looking at Chris Davis as gone if he was not signed by the end of the window for teams to negotiate exclusively with their own Free Agents. Maybe I’ll be surprised, but I’m considering him a former Oriole.

There are numerous ways you can build a team. By utilizing a good portion of the funds you would be paying Davis annually on Kazmir and Samardzija; you’ve improved the rotation. The lineup would still require help, but at-least you have a staff capable of competing.