Later on today, the Baltimore Orioles will play their 81st game of the 2014 season, putting an end to their 1st half. As the O’s prepare to move into the 2nd half of their season; there are plenty of questions about what awaits.
Before we look forward, let’s review what we’ve seen from the O’s so far.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
Entering today, the O’s are 42-38, 1.5 GB of Toronto in the AL East, 0.5 GB of Seattle for the 2nd Wild Card in the American League.
While Baltimore is 6th overall in baseball in Slugging %; the O’s are 11th overall in runs scored. This is primarily due to the Orioles having very mediocre On-Base % ability (15th overall).
Despite some improvement from the O’s rotation the last few weeks; the starters are still just 24th overall in baseball with a collective 4.20 ERA. Even though only 6 starters (Tillman, Jimenez, Chen, Gonzalez, Norris, Gausman) have been used (reflecting that the rotation has been healthy), O’s starters rank 26th overall in Innings Pitched.
Baseball Prospectus uses Defensive Efficiency (which determines the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs by a team’s defense) to rank defensive play. The O’s have been steadily improving in this category since Machado returned – but currently rank 13th overall.
As you project ahead, there are reasons for both optimism and pessimism.
One reason (maybe the primary reason) for optimism is the general weakness of the AL East. The O’s are 22-15 against their Divisional foes, with 39 games vs. the East remaining. Every team in the Division has questions.
Toronto’s offense is legitimate. Their pitching? Not so much. While they have been linked to Price, I don’t expect the Jays to land him. I do think their chances to get Smardijiza are good. As the Jays are the Division leader, and current favorite; getting Smardijiza would only help their odds. I don’t look at him as a tremendous difference maker though.
New York’s rotation currently includes David Phelps, Chase Whitley, and Vidal Nuno. When Sabathia eventually returns, that will help, but he’s also obviously regressed. After missing the past two seasons, Pineda currently missing time might be a late-season blessing for the Yankees if that allows him to finish strong though. He still has to show he can return though. Beyond that, the New York lineup includes plenty of recognizable names, but just mediocre production. Let’s see how all those old veterans handle the dog days of Summer.
The defending World Champion Boston Red Sox? Their starting pitching has been good, even with Buchholz struggling and missing time. It hasn’t mattered though (Boston is 7 games under .500) because of the offense. Entering today, Boston is 26th overall in slugging, and 27th overall in runs scored. It would not shock me to see Boston get back into the Division race, but that is not a roster to fear.
Of course, it does not exactly speak well for the O’s that with the Division as mediocre as it is, that they have not taken better advantage.
One of the reasons the O’s have not accomplished more in their first 80 games is the profile of the offense. When the power shows up, the O’s score. In the games where the ball is not leaving the yard; the offense will often look anemic. That profile is not going to change. The O’s are not going to start taking a bunch of pitches in the 2nd half. This is who they are. Can the slugging improve? Cruz has had a poor June, and of-course was never going to continue the pace he was setting through May. Davis figures to wake-up at some point, and could pick up some of that slack. Hardy has 17 doubles, but just that 1 recent homer. Maybe he finds his power-stroke in the 2nd half? Even if he does, having lost Wieters for the year will impact the power the O’s get from Catcher the rest of the year. Also, Pearce has been great (hitting RHP with authority as well). Is he going to slug at this level (.555) for the remainder of the year? Probably not. On-the-other-hand, Machado’s offense will improve. It’s also possible the O’s get more out of 2nd (either improvement with what exists internally, or by going outside the organization).
Whatever you like or do not like about the O’s offense, I don’t see much change coming there the rest of the year. If the O’s are going to step-forward as a team over the remainder of this year; it will be because the rotation takes a leap.
Tillman came into ’14, with a run of 50 consistently positive starts since his July 4th 2012 recall to Baltimore. April was fine, May was basically a train-wreck over 7 starts. In his last 3 starts here in June, he’s allowed 4 earned runs in 22 innings. We know he is not an ‘ACE’. He’s probably not a number 2 starter on most contenders. That’s fine. What the O’s need, is for him to give the team a chance to win each time out the rest of the way. He provided 200+ innings last year, and is on-pace for 200 this year. His next 100, have to be better than his first 100.
Using wins and losses and ERA to evaluate a pitcher has plenty of limitations; but Jimenez sitting at 2-8, with a 4.70 ERA provides a pretty clear picture of things to date with him. When signed, many of us in Birdland looked at him as a Wild Card. That he could pitch anywhere from a back-of-the-rotation starter, to that spectacular level he showed in the 2nd half last year with Cleveland. Realistically, you were anticipating somewhere in-between. The primary issue so far has been abysmal control (53 bb’s in 88 innings). He’s a guy that mechanically can get out of whack batter-to-batter, let alone game to game. His career also indicates he is a guy who can get locked in and get on a positive run. Not surprisingly, when his mechanics look better, his stuff (and control) also improve. Maybe his start this past Wednesday vs. Chicago can be a new starting point for him this year. Either way, his performance the rest of ’14 will go a long ways to determining the O’s fortunes.
Right now, the primary hope for the rotation is riding the ability in Gausman’s talented arm. There are no questions about his ability. There are issues (secondary offerings) that will have to be refined as he goes forward. When he comes back later this week / early next week; the O’s will be anticipating handing him the ball every 5th day the rest of the way. Some days he will look amazing, and dominate with his FB/Change combo. Other days he will struggle, and look like the young professional he is. As talented as he is, I think it is a bit unfair to ask him to shoulder the load in leading the rotation the rest of the way.
We are about a Month away from the Non-Waiver Deadline. I continue to have the general opinion that the players who are currently here on the roster have to take a step-forward; prior to considering augmenting the team with external additions.
If in July you can get that trio of Tillman / Jimenez / Gausman regularly pitching well, I’d be more excited about looking to add to the team. As we’ve discussed on the BSL Board, I like the ideas of going after the Rangers Jokim Soria, and the Rays Ben Zobrist in that scenario.
The flip-side is deciding if the O’s should be looking to be sellers. The results on the field this Month will also tell the story there. With the advent of the 2nd Wild Card, there are many teams across the game who fancy themselves as contenders. Due to that, that leads to more buyers and less sellers. You could argue that if the O’s choose to be sellers, they could get more for their talent, due to it being that seller market.
The most likely scenario a Month from now is a situation which closely resembles today. My take would be that if the primary reason the O’s are Playoff contenders is that the Division is weak, that does not mean you are particularly good. In that case, it will be up to the O’s leadership to determine the best course of action. Still, it has to be acknowledged that if the O’s are within striking distance of the Playoff leaders; it is not going to sit well in the O’s clubhouse (or with larger portions of the fan-base) if the O’s organization is seen as waiving the white-flag on 2014.
At many trading-deadlines, my BSL colleague Rob Shields has been fond of saying he would like to see a strategy of both buying and selling. Many of his arguments have made sense, but we don’t see Major League Front-Offices regularly pulling this off.
As we move into the 2nd half of the O’s 2014 season, the current roster gets another Month to show who exactly they are. If the O’s Front-Office decides they are legitimate contenders (not just to reach the Post-season, but to win the American League); then the Front-Office will have to be prepared to add to this roster. If the Front-Office decides that adding external talent would be throwing good money after bad; then decisions that potentially anger parts of the clubhouse and fan-base might be the best direction for the organization.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.