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BSL: Projecting the offensive output


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#1 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 07:48 AM

http://baltimorespor...fensive-output/

 

Taking a look at the run/pass ratio in Kubiak's recent history as a play caller, what are some reasonable expectations for Flacco, Rice, and Pierce in 2014. 

 

Based on their career averages, It would behoove them to exceed these expectations, which is why the offensive coaching staff was overhauled in the first place. 


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#2 BSLGabeFerguson

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 01:10 PM

I don't think you can project the numbers in Houston to Baltimore. Different personnel will dictate a different approach. We don't have a premiere RB like Arian Foster in his prime to carry the ball 350 times and while the OL is improved, I don't see it as the top shelf unit Houston had in 2011-2012.

Flacco is also a better QB than Schaub, and aside from Andre Johnson, the skill players in Baltimore are more talented than the players that were in Houston.

My expectation is for the Ravens to mmaximze the talent on the roster. The running game will rebound, but I doubt we see more rushing attempts than passing attempts. I would expect Flacco to have his best statistical season to date. 4,000 yards and 25 TDs on 62-64% passing.

It's harder to project the RBs without knowing the state of Rice's suspension and the health and efficacy of Pierce. My guess is they end up with something close to a 60-40 split in carries at the end of the season.
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#3 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 09:30 PM

I don't think you can project the numbers in Houston to Baltimore. Different personnel will dictate a different approach. We don't have a premiere RB like Arian Foster in his prime to carry the ball 350 times and while the OL is improved, I don't see it as the top shelf unit Houston had in 2011-2012.

Flacco is also a better QB than Schaub, and aside from Andre Johnson, the skill players in Baltimore are more talented than the players that were in Houston.

My expectation is for the Ravens to mmaximze the talent on the roster. The running game will rebound, but I doubt we see more rushing attempts than passing attempts. I would expect Flacco to have his best statistical season to date. 4,000 yards and 25 TDs on 62-64% passing.

It's harder to project the RBs without knowing the state of Rice's suspension and the health and efficacy of Pierce. My guess is they end up with something close to a 60-40 split in carries at the end of the season.

I see where your coming from and agree for the most part. Certainly could see the run game improve with the upgrades on the line, and Flacco's completion % go up with the passing game predicated on short passes rather than long in previous years.

 

However, the Ravens are not a team that plays to their strengths, or Torrey Smith would be in the slot where he wouldn't face the press coverage often that he struggles with. Or they wouldn't have used so much zone blocking last year when the O-line didn't have the personnel equipped to run it properly. I don't think Kubiak is going to look at Flacco and call more passing plays because he's better than Schaub, or less running plays because Rice isn't the guy Foster is. 

 

I think most coaches, aside from those lucky enough to have Manning, Brady, Brees at the helm, make the play calls based on game situation, not personnel. 


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#4 BSLGabeFerguson

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 12:48 PM

Maybe I am giving too much credit to OCs here, but I think the gameplan they use is very much predicated upon what their offensive personnel is and how it can be used to best exploit the team they are facing. Now, once the game starts and points are being scored there, changes will be made accordingly. You obviously don't want to just pass the ball when playing with a lead, and vice versa. 

 

I also don't think it's fair to say the Ravens aren't a team that plays to their strengths because of how they used one player last year, and they actually did get away from the ZBS to a degree when it was obviously not working.

 

I'm going to disagree with your take because Kubiak has clearly made changes in the past based on his personnel. When Schaub got hurt and Yates was the QB, the number of passing attempts went down dramatically. Now that's an extreme difference, but it shows that he is willing to change the focus of his offense because of personnel. The same thing happened last year, but in reverse. The RBs were hurt and ineffective and he gave the reigns to Schaub/Keenum. Is that because they were always losing by a lot or because their RB situation wasn't pretty? They did lose a lot of games, but it's not like they were getting blown out of the water. There was no reason to completely abandon the running game like they did strictly because of the game situation.

 

In regards to your projected numbers for Flacco, they don't look right to me. You have him at a 60% completion rate which is inline with his career, but he should be attempting a considerably larger number of high percentage passes in the WCO. I would be shocked if his percentage is that low, and I also can't see his TD/Int ratio being that poor.


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#5 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 03:46 PM

In regards to your projected numbers for Flacco, they don't look right to me. You have him at a 60% completion rate which is inline with his career, but he should be attempting a considerably larger number of high percentage passes in the WCO. I would be shocked if his percentage is that low, and I also can't see his TD/Int ratio being that poor.

I hope your right. 


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