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BSL: An Optimized Oriole Lineup


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#1 JeffLong

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Posted 26 February 2014 - 03:18 PM

I took a look at what an optimized lineup for the 2014 Orioles might look like. Nothing incredibly advanced about the analysis, but I threw away all standard ideas about lineup construction to maximize the run production capabilities for this group.

 

http://baltimorespor...-oriole-lineup/


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#2 The Epic

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Posted 26 February 2014 - 04:24 PM

I love this article.

 

I know that this doesn't account for defense, but I'm wonder what putting a Reimold or Pearce in left while Lough rides the pine would do to the lineup. I mean, it will happen at least once. And what of Weeks?

 

I like the idea of Davis batting second against righties. All of those "OMG He's Coming This Way" hitters should always max out in ABs, I think. Bautista, Wright, Harper, Davis, Trout...I mean, as long as you aren't absolutely molasses on the basepaths, I don't see the problem.


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#3 Il BuonO

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Posted 26 February 2014 - 05:08 PM

I picked up The Book last year but had been referring to the ideas for optimization for a while since they were first brought to my attention. It took some getting used to as a former player and coach but it makes perfect sense.

I can't imagine Buck ever employing it though. And not because Buck undervalues runs, but just because you get comfortable with what you think works.

#4 The Epic

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Posted 26 February 2014 - 05:29 PM

I picked up The Book last year but had been referring to the ideas for optimization for a while since they were first brought to my attention. It took some getting used to as a former player and coach but it makes perfect sense.

I can't imagine Buck ever employing it though. And not because Buck undervalues runs, but just because you get comfortable with what you think works.

 

I do think comfort makes a difference, though maybe that's just me being stupid. It's kinda like Chris Davis was when he said he felt more comfortable because he knew he would be in the lineup every day...except to a lesser extent.

 

When I bowl, I just feel like I have less to think about when I consistently know where I bowl. I'm always behind X person, so I know my rhythm. I would think that a guy could produce a little bit better when he always knows where he'll be and when.



#5 BSLMichaelWeber

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Posted 26 February 2014 - 05:34 PM

Good article Jeff. I think you reach some solid conclusions even though I wouldn't bat Lough that high vs righties.

#6 JeffLong

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Posted 26 February 2014 - 09:07 PM

Good article Jeff. I think you reach some solid conclusions even though I wouldn't bat Lough that high vs righties.

 

Yeah, I think the lineup gets pretty questionable once you get passed Jones at 4. Machado is about league average, but then it really drops off. I could see arguments being made for moving any of those bottom 4 guys around.


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#7 Russ

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Posted 26 February 2014 - 10:21 PM

Great piece, Jeff.

 

I know you didn't really argue this point, but with a guy like Wieters who has massive splits, I would hesitate hitting him high in the order against lefties.  He will probably get only 2, max of 3, ABs against the SP, then face righties in the 7-9 innings and I don't want Wieters comng up with men on base in the late innings batting from the left side.  I've seen enough grounders to second and lazy fly balls to left to last a lifetime.



#8 The Epic

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Posted 26 February 2014 - 11:17 PM

Great piece, Jeff.

 

I know you didn't really argue this point, but with a guy like Wieters who has massive splits, I would hesitate hitting him high in the order against lefties.  He will probably get only 2, max of 3, ABs against the SP, then face righties in the 7-9 innings and I don't want Wieters comng up with men on base in the late innings batting from the left side.  I've seen enough grounders to second and lazy fly balls to left to last a lifetime.

 

Right. And that's especially the case in this lineup, where Davis could get pitched around, then it's Wieters, Hardy, Machado. A set-up righty could push through that pretty decently, not really having to worry about match-ups (because you are not PHing for any of those guys).

 

This is a great baseline, though. Now I'm going to be thinking about how I'd do it. Get to you tomorrow.

 

(ETA: Just thinking about it, I think Jones/Hardy/Machado in the 5-6-7 against lefties would likely solve that problem. The difference in runs on the front-end would likely be minimal, while you're setting yourself up for better situations in the late innings. At worst, you're taxing their bullpen!)



#9 BSLMichaelWeber

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Posted 26 February 2014 - 11:47 PM

Yeah, I like Jones up at 5 vs lefties as you must consider the likely use of righties later in the game.<br />

#10 bnickle

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Posted 27 February 2014 - 02:18 AM

Not a fan of our lineup vs RHP.

#11 Jon Shepherd

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Posted 27 February 2014 - 08:01 AM

Something I found amusing was how hard pressed teams have been with putting a fast player in the lead off position.  A long while ago, I never published it, I ran an extensive study of leadoff hitters and found that speed was inversely proprotional to scoring runs.  In other words, speed was a characteristic that was bad for leadoff men.  Why?  Probably because managers ignored other aspects of a player and so it incorrectly identified speed as a detriment.

 

I should probably go through my archives to find that.  It was a good example of a type II error.


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#12 McNulty

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 08:25 AM

Buck hit Lough first and Markakis 5th yesterday. First day of spring caveat aside, this initially made me worried that we'd have a guy hovering around 310 OBP at the top of the lineup. I then went even further into the wormhole about what my ideal lineup would be. I'm a big believer in Weeks, so if Buck insists on hitting Nick lower he'd be my lead off guy. Thoughts?

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#13 bnickle

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 09:16 AM

Weeks has to be a starter first. I like the speed/OBP potential of Weeks but he has to find a way to pass Flaherty.

Ill still be surprised if ultimately Nick isn't leading off come OD. Even if Manny isn't ready.

#14 Mike B

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 09:26 AM

I think Buck is searching right now.  He wants to see Lough and others get as many AB's against actual major league pitchers as possible.

Just for laughs right now, here is how I think it will line up. When everybody is healthy

Nick

Machado

Davis

AJ

Cruz

Wieters

Hardy

Flaherty

Lough.

 

If Nolan is healthy maybe he platoons with Lough. 

I suspect the Orioles DL Nolan to buy time.  They have a log jam of RH hitting outfielder, with Peguerro, Young, Nolan etc.  They all can not make the team.


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#15 BSLRobShields

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 11:04 AM

Vs righties:

Nick
Lough
Cruz
Davis
Jones
Manny
Hardy
Wieters
Flaherty

Vs lefties:

Nick
Manny
Wieters
Davis
Jones
Cruz
Hardy
Lough
Flaherty

-I would sit Lough and Flaherty vs the toughest lefties.
- I would make sure Wieters' days off were against the best rhp pitchers we face..that wouldn't always happen but I would do that as much as possible.
-If Manny starts to walk more, I may bat him second all the time...would even still be ok with it since he can hit so well, has good bat control, etc...


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#16 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 11:38 AM

Kakes has to bat lead off. He's the best OBP threat not named Chris Davis.

Never understood why Reimold was the lead off guy at one point.

Call me crazy... Not a lefty or righty specific lineup.

Kakes
Davis (so he gets more ABs)
Jones
Machado (so if they go down in order in the 1st, he can lead off the 2nd, or drive in those guys with doubles)
Cruz
Hardy
Wieters
Flaherty (I like LaRussa batting his worst hitter/pitcher 8th)
Lough (if he's solid at taking a walk, it sets the table for the top three)
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#17 The Epic

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 12:40 PM

RHP, assuming full roster

 

Markakis

Machado

Davis

Jones

Cruz

Wieters

Hardy

Lough

Flaherty

 

LHP

 

Markakis

Jones

Davis

Cruz

Wieters

Machado

Hardy

Flaherty

Reimold (Yo, yo, yo. It's Reim Time!)



#18 FFH

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 02:35 PM

&amp;nbsp;



Never understood why Reimold was the lead off guy at one point.

A couple of years ago, Nolan looked like he was going to be a speed/OB/power threat. He had a .373 OBP in the minors, and his first real season in 2009, he posted a .365.

At that time, Nick was still considered a no 2 or 3 hitter, and still showed up in the box as such.

That version of Nolan, imo, would have been an AS.
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#19 FFH

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 02:41 PM

LHP

Nick
Manny
AJ
Davis
Cruz
JJ
MW
RHB playing LF
Weeks

RHP

Nick
Manny
AJ
Davis
Cruz
JJ
MW
Flaherty
Lough

If Reimold can stay healthy, I like a Nolan/Lough platoon in LF.

#20 RZNJ

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 05:21 PM

I predicted this lineup before Buck came close to it.

 

 

1  Lough

2. Machado

3. Jones

4. Davis

5. Cruz

6. Markakis

7. Hardy

8. Wieters

9. Flaherty

 

;

Pretty good on separating the L/R hitters in the lineup.    Yes, Lough's OBP bares watching but he's also the only guy with speed in the lineup and putting him 8th or 9th puts him together with Flaherty and if Markakis is leadoff that's 3 LHH's in a row.   Wieters is down at #8 which is where he belongs in a good lineup.    Can Markakis hit enough to warrant being 6?   Can Lough get on enough to leadoff?    Two gambles worth taking.






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