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BSL: Should the O's be Concerned About Choo's Splits?


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#1 JeffLong

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 03:36 PM

I took a look at (improbable) FA target Shin-Soo Choo and whether the O's should be wary of his extreme splits.

 

http://baltimorespor...o-choos-splits/

 

First time really playing with FanGraphs' spray charts in a post, so check it out.


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#2 BSLRobShields

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 03:55 PM

If were spending money, then I would sign him.

 

But I am not really excited about paying him 6-7 years at 18+M and losing a pick.  He isn't THAT good.


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#3 Matt_P

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 04:00 PM

What worries me about Choo is that a good chunk of his OBP is due to getting hit by pitches.

 

His line for his career against lefties: .243/.340 (382/1183)/.341

His line if we get rid of the beanballs: .243/.299 (341/1142)/.341

 

His 2013 numbers against lefties: .215/.347 (76/219) /.265

If we get rid of the beanballs: .215/.306 (63/206)/.265

 

He got hit 13 times against lefties in 2013. Just to put that in perspective, Melvin Mora, Hairston and Adam Jones are the only players we've had since 2000 who got hit that many times in a season and Jones and Hairston tied him. If you go back to 1990 then you can add Brady to that list. Go back to 1980 and yeah still the same number of hitters.

 

A large chunk of his success against lefties is because he's gotten good at getting hit. He's gotta get hurt at some point.



#4 JeffLong

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 04:17 PM

What worries me about Choo is that a good chunk of his OBP is due to getting hit by pitches.

 

His line for his career against lefties: .243/.340 (382/1183)/.341

His line if we get rid of the beanballs: .243/.299 (341/1142)/.341

 

His 2013 numbers against lefties: .215/.347 (76/219) /.265

If we get rid of the beanballs: .215/.306 (63/206)/.265

 

He got hit 13 times against lefties in 2013. Just to put that in perspective, Melvin Mora, Hairston and Adam Jones are the only players we've had since 2000 who got hit that many times in a season and Jones and Hairston tied him. If you go back to 1990 then you can add Brady to that list. Go back to 1980 and yeah still the same number of hitters.

 

A large chunk of his success against lefties is because he's gotten good at getting hit. He's gotta get hurt at some point.

 

That's fair, and I think that might bring into question if it's a vision issue, or a mechanical issue vs. lefties.

 

That said, Craig Biggio showed that getting HBP can be a skill AND that it doesn't have to kill your career. He got HBP at least 11 times every season from 1995 to 2005. His average over that time?

 

He averaged getting hit over 21 times per season, including 34 times in 1997.


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#5 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 09:55 AM

Sports on Earth: Last man standing
http://www.sportsone...ticle/64614358/



#6 dude

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 10:27 AM

Sports on Earth: Last man standing
http://www.sportsone...ticle/64614358/

 

wow....talk about sucking up to Boras.  Boras probably had that written for Marc.

 

....and when he questions whether anyone can call Boras' bluff.....ask Ryan Madson or ask Soriano, Lohse or Bourn last year or Drew and Morales this year.  Someone will likely bail them out with a contract....but they certainly aren't in much of a position today.

 

Coming back to Choo.  I'd still like the Angels to get involved and trade Hamilton to the Orioles (w/LAD-Ethier) to free up a little space for them.



#7 GaryArmida

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 10:59 PM

I'd rather Choo for 7 years than Nelson Cruz for 4. Choo's splits are definitely a big negative, but his skillset would age well. On base skills tend to age well, especially for moderate power hitters. Cruz, on the other hand, doesn't look like he will age well at all. He doesn't get on base enough, his strikeout numbers are awful, and he is a statue in the outfield. 


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#8 GaryArmida

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 11:22 PM

Ok, case in point...The Orioles can still operate on a budget and nab some under the radar guys like Paul Maholm, who would be a solid 4 or 5 SP. Franklin Gutierrez is an injury waiting to happen, but a one year deal flier for an elite defender who does have some pop could be done already. 

 

It's not like waiting on these guys will drive down their price. The market is the market for them. 


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