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BSL: Orioles 2014 Forecasts: Oliver Hitters


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#1 JeffLong

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 09:59 PM

This is the first look in a series focusing on how various projection systems think the O's will do in 2014. We'll start with Oliver, and how it views the O's hitters.

 

http://baltimoresportsandlife.com/baltimore-orioles/os-2014-forecasts-oliver/


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#2 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 06 December 2013 - 10:42 PM

The ending point about the projections not being overly accurate for any one player makes sense, but I'll pick at things anyway.

If Reimold was able to stay in the line-up (we don't have to get into that likely-hood), I think that slash line would look ridiculous. The Urrutia projection on the other-hand looks optimistic to me for 2014.

 

I think you nailed the conclusion regarding LF.

 

At 2nd... I'm fine with the O's starting the year with anyone out of that Flaherty, Weeks, Phelps trio... and I also agree with you that it's Flaherty's job to lose. I agree with Dan Szymborski's comments today on The Lance Rinker Show, that he's hoping for Schoop to take over the position sooner than later. I'm hoping the beginning of June.

 

Re: Davis having a WAR of 4.1 in '14.... I would think most fans, and each of the projection systems will show Davis as stepping back from '13, but remaining productive. Will be interesting to look the systems as a whole, and see where the consensus is on expected production.



#3 Matt

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 02:53 AM

Considering Reimold's career line is .252/.327/.439 I think it's fair for projections to have him as low as they do. He's played 56 games in the last two years. I think it would be actually more ridiculous for a projection system to have him at or above his career averages considering the amount of time he has missed in the last two years.



#4 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 10:02 AM

Considering Reimold's career line is .252/.327/.439 I think it's fair for projections to have him as low as they do. He's played 56 games in the last two years. I think it would be actually more ridiculous for a projection system to have him at or above his career averages considering the amount of time he has missed in the last two years.


Fair enough. It does 'make sense' as a weighted mean of the 3 previous seasons, but I'm not sure I find the projection particularly useful. Maybe the Minor League Equivalencies as touted.

What I want from projections, are accurate (likely) projections of PT and performance.

All of the projections are based on 600 PA's. If the projection for Reimold was based on 150 pa's, I could further understand a negative projection of performance. Again I get that is just a weighted mean, but if Reimold gets 600 pa's - he'll make those numbers look silly.

 



#5 JeffLong

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 12:06 PM


Fair enough. It does 'make sense' as a weighted mean of the 3 previous seasons, but I'm not sure I find the projection particularly useful. Maybe the Minor League Equivalencies as touted.

What I want from projections, are accurate (likely) projections of PT and performance.

All of the projections are based on 600 PA's. If the projection for Reimold was based on 150 pa's, I could further understand a negative projection of performance. Again I get that is just a weighted mean, but if Reimold gets 600 pa's - he'll make those numbers look silly.

 

 

When I get to Steamer, that takes into account PAs, and will give you a better picture of Reimold as a part-time player.

 

As for his line - I think that's a function of being lumped in with other players of his ilk, guys with promise whose injuries derailed their careers. No doubt he has the talent to hit .270 or even better, but without having played at the MLB level in so long it's not likely that he'll be able to do that right away. Something to keep an eye on as we look at other projection models.


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#6 BSLRobShields

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 12:14 PM

4ish WAR for Davis sounds about right to me.


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