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BSL: A Review of Orioles Pitching Draft Picks


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#1 PatrickDougherty

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 09:42 AM

BSL: http://baltimorespor...ng-draft-picks/

 

A snapshot of who the Orioles have drafted and developed and how they've fared over the last decade. I'm hoping to hear everyone's thoughts on player development strategy since it seems to me like the team can't produce pitchers at the same rate that Tampa Bay and St. Louis can.


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#2 BaltBird 24

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 09:55 AM

2003: Chris Ray

2004: Brad Bergesen

2005: Garrett Olson, David Hernandez

2006: Pedro Beato, Zach Britton, Jason Berken

2007: Jake Arrieta

2008: Brian Matusz

2009: Matt Hobgood (??!?!!)

 

Anything after that it's still a tad bit too early to tell, though Bundy, Gausman, and Harvey should be promising at some point.

 

Needless to say, it's not hard to see why we've been so bad recently. We didn't draft well and we weren't doing much on the international market. Things look better of late with Bundy, Gausman, and Harvey but still a lot of work needs to be done.



#3 PatrickDougherty

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 10:21 AM

2003: Chris Ray

2004: Brad Bergesen

2005: Garrett Olson, David Hernandez

2006: Pedro Beato, Zach Britton, Jason Berken

2007: Jake Arrieta

2008: Brian Matusz

2009: Matt Hobgood (??!?!!)

 

Anything after that it's still a tad bit too early to tell, though Bundy, Gausman, and Harvey should be promising at some point.

 

Needless to say, it's not hard to see why we've been so bad recently. We didn't draft well and we weren't doing much on the international market. Things look better of late with Bundy, Gausman, and Harvey but still a lot of work needs to be done.

Agreed. Do you think Bundy, Gausman, and Harvey are the sort of "good no matter what" players that we can't screw up, or if they're "good and need some work" players that I'm less confident about?


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#4 BaltBird 24

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 10:28 AM

Agreed. Do you think Bundy, Gausman, and Harvey are the sort of "good no matter what" players that we can't screw up, or if they're "good and need some work" players that I'm less confident about?

 

Gausman, I believe, is clearly in that 'good and need some work' category. We'll see how that plays out for us.

 

Bundy may have been as polished as they come from a HS stand point, but I guess there will always be work needed when dealing with HS pitchers.

 

It's probably still too early to tell about Harvey, but the same for Bundy probably applies to him.

 

For what it's worth, Matusz quite possibly could have been the closest to any of being a finished product when he was drafted.


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#5 Markus

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 10:52 AM

Ugh, that's one depressing list posted above.


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Lemme get two claps and a Ric Flair


#6 JeffLong

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 11:40 AM

Gausman, I believe, is clearly in that 'good and need some work' category. We'll see how that plays out for us.

 

Bundy may have been as polished as they come from a HS stand point, but I guess there will always be work needed when dealing with HS pitchers.

 

It's probably still too early to tell about Harvey, but the same for Bundy probably applies to him.

 

For what it's worth, Matusz quite possibly could have been the closest to any of being a finished product when he was drafted.

 

Harvey has really impressed since being drafted (see the Klawchat post I made). I don't think he's a "so good, he can't miss" type player, but he clearly was better than expected coming out of the tail end of the draft.

 

The biggest thing is that the org. seems to rush players. I'd rather see them take their time and make them earn their promotions. I know we threw a fit about Bundy's promotion schedule, but he earned every single promotion, even if he was ready for AA right out of the draft.


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#7 clapdiddy

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 01:36 PM

Harvey has really impressed since being drafted (see the Klawchat post I made). I don't think he's a "so good, he can't miss" type player, but he clearly was better than expected coming out of the tail end of the draft.

 

The biggest thing is that the org. seems to rush players. I'd rather see them take their time and make them earn their promotions. I know we threw a fit about Bundy's promotion schedule, but he earned every single promotion, even if he was ready for AA right out of the draft.

Yes.  We should definitely be following the Tampa model of letting pitchers develop slowly through the system.  


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#8 BaltBird 24

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 01:45 PM

Yes.  We should definitely be following the Tampa model of letting pitchers develop slowly through the system.  

 

Before Bundy and Gausman the O's generally took their time as well.

 

Matusz was up here for a stint a year after he was drafted, but he was thought to be close to ML ready coming out of the draft and had simply dominated AA in two months of work.

 

Arrieta spent a full season in Frederick. A full season between Bowie and Norfolk and then another third of a season in Norfolk before getting the call.

 

Britton had spent a full season in Delmarva. Another full season in Frederick. And finally a full season between Bowie and Norfolk at which is pretty much dominated at both stops at age 22. He appeared fully ready and still held his own over a full season in Baltimore.

 

Chris Ray spent a full season between Delmarva and Frederick as a starter. He was then converted to a relief pitcher and spent half a season just dominating AA hitters before being called up. Relief pitchers don't generally need as much time in the minors so I won't say he was rushed.

 

David Hernandez, Brad Bergesen, and Garrett Olson all spent significant time in the minors before being called up.

 

Honestly, I'm not sure if it's a matter of the O's rushing prospects or that the prospects just aren't very good to begin with.


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#9 Matt_P

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 02:55 PM

We've been able to develop prospects good enough to succeed in the minors at a reasonable rate. Not great but average. We've failed at getting these prospects to succeed in the majors.



#10 PatrickDougherty

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Posted 21 November 2013 - 10:03 AM

What are everyone's opinions on pulling Matusz from the bullpen and giving him another chance to start? Would/should/could they?


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#11 JeremyStrain

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Posted 21 November 2013 - 10:05 AM

What are everyone's opinions on pulling Matusz from the bullpen and giving him another chance to start? Would/should/could they?

 

In another home park, sure.

 

That's a big part of his trade value problem, an acquiring team will probably give him a shot as a SP, where we are dealing him as a RP.


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#12 Matt

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Posted 21 November 2013 - 10:22 AM

What are everyone's opinions on pulling Matusz from the bullpen and giving him another chance to start? Would/should/could they?

He's done nothing to prove he deserves another shot. I feel pretty confident he's nothing more than a LOOGY for the Orioles. Maybe for another team like Jeremy said it's a different story.



#13 aurelius

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Posted 21 November 2013 - 03:48 PM

And if you go back another 40-50 years beyond that, you'll find one TOR starter they drafted - Mike Mussina. It's beyond pathetic.


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#14 DJ MC

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Posted 21 November 2013 - 04:38 PM

And if you go back another 40-50 years beyond that, you'll find one TOR starter they drafted - Mike Mussina. It's beyond pathetic.

Forty years ago, they drafted Mike Flanagan. Thirty-five years ago they drafted Mike Boddicker.

 

I get your point, but let's not exaggerate too much.


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#15 PatrickDougherty

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Posted 21 November 2013 - 05:20 PM

Forty years ago, they drafted Mike Flanagan. Thirty-five years ago they drafted Mike Boddicker.

 

I get your point, but let's not exaggerate too much.

And aside from that, 10 years gives a picture of guys who could still be competitive and capable players in the league today, with regimes that are either in place or recently ousted, and fewer shifts in general pitching philosophy. Training and expectations are entirely different now than they were when Flanny and Boddicker were taken, and even when Mussina was taken. Saying that the Orioles were good or bad at drafting and developing pitchers 30+ years ago means relatively little to the discussion of recent ability to develop talent.


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#16 aurelius

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Posted 21 November 2013 - 09:34 PM

Recent ability at drafting and developing is the list of people we're talking about (well we could go back a little farther and see names like Alvie Shepard and Chris Smith).

 

The orioles are bad at drafting, period. The results speak for themselves.






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