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BBREF and the 2020 season....


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#41 dude

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 08:53 AM

6 teams petitioned to start the season where the simulation ends



#42 dude

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 11:55 PM

Orioles lose the rubber game to the Yankees an ugly, 15-4.

 

Early lead off John Means who continues to struggle in the simulated season, dropping to 2-6 with a 6.43 ERA.

 

Yankees blast 4 more home-runs including Judge again, a pair by Gary Sanchez and another one by DJ LeMahieu.

 

DJ Stewart got back on the hit-train with 3 knocks including a double.



#43 dude

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Posted 29 June 2020 - 12:28 AM

The O's swept the simulated Tigers this weekend at a notional OPaCY to run their record to 34-49.

 

The Orioles got strong pitching performances from Aaron Sanchez (5.2/2), Mike Baumann (6/2, 9Ks) and Alex Cobb (7/2). 

 

Renato Nunez requested the Orioles not replace him in the lineup by smashing the ball across the 3 games going 7 for 11 with 3 homes-runs and 6 rbi. Anthony Santander belted his 21st home-run in the third game to wrest the team home-run lead from Trey Mancini.

 

Tanner Scott would earn his 3rd save in the first game victory, 3-2 and another, his 4th, in the game 2 win, 5-3. Richard Bleier entered the 3rd game in the 8th inning and finished it off for his first save after the Orioles added 2 more late runs to complete the sweep, 6-2.



#44 dude

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Posted 05 July 2020 - 07:00 PM

The Orioles lost both Series this week, dropping 2 of 3 to the Yankees before heading west and losing 3 of 4 to the Athletics.  After struggling with the notional jet lag and falling short in the first 3 games, the Orioles shook it off and won today's finale, 2-1.

 

The week started in Baltimore with the visiting Yankees squeaking out the first game on a deep sac-fly to center by Gary Sanchez that scored DJ LeMahieu in the top of the 9th to break a 2-2 tie. Aroldis Chapman would close out in the 9th, 3-2 persevering the win for James Paxton, who pitched 8 strong innings.  Trey's homer to left in the 5th and Rio Ruiz's 2-out, big fly to right would account for both Oriole runs.  June would end with off-season prize, Gerrit Cole, dominating the Orioles for 7 innings, striking out 9 with his lone blemish, Ruiz's 2nd solo shot in 2 days in the 2nd inning.  John Means would continue his sophomore struggles giving up 6 earned runs into the 5th inning and seeing his ERA rise to 6.75.  The final tally would be 7-1.  July would start off more kind to the Orioles as they salvaged the 3rd game of the Series, 6-3, on a strong effort by non-Oriole Aaron Sanchez and Ruiz's 3rd home-run in 3 games, a 2-run shot to deep right-center 

 

In Oakland, Frankie Montas took advantage of the flight-weary Orioles, pitching into the 7th as the A's win the opener, 7-0.  Mike Baumann got knocked around in the 3rd inning, giving up 5 runs and a total of 6 on the night.   The Orioles would prove more game the second night, but Oakland's young Peruvian left-handed rookie, Jesus Luzardo, would throw 8 strong innings limiting the Orioles to just 3 runs.  Alex Cobb got knocked around a little early and the Orioles fell 6-3. Saturday's fireworks weren't just limited to the post-game horizon as the teams combined for 5 home-runs including both O's home-runs leaders Trey Mancini and Anthony Santander launching their 22nd and Yusniel Diaz's 4th. Fellow left-handed rookie, AJ Puk, staved off a shaky start as the A's won Game 3, 7-4.  John Means would right the ship in Game 4 with 5 innings of 1-run ball before giving way to a quartet of Orioles relievers with Tanner Scott surviving a hit and a walk in the 9th for his 6th save.

 

After the Game, Orioles Manager Brandon Hyde noted, "...you know, just because the season is simulated it doesn't make cross country travel any easier."



#45 dude

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Posted 09 July 2020 - 12:27 AM

The Orioles dropped the Mariners series, losing the finale on getaway day.  Losing 2 of 3 in Seattle dropped the Orioles season record to 38-56.

 

The series started off well on Monday with a 6-3 win.  Non-Oriole starter Aaron Sanchez continued a strong season for the rebuilding Orioles going 6 innings of 2-run ball.  While the Orioles were limited to 8 hits, but 4 of them found the out-field seats including Jose Rondon's 2-run shot in the 4th and 5th inning solo home-runs by Anthony Santander, his 23rd, and DJ Stewart's 13th.  Trey Mancini kept pace with Santander tacking on the Orioles' final run, delivering his souvenir in the 8th inning.  Tanner Scott would pitch a clean 9th, striking out one for his 7th save. 

 

Tuesday's game would fare as well for the Birds.  Jose Iglesias would stake the Orioles to an early 1-0 lead depositing a Kikuchi 4-seamer into the seats in left leading off the Game.  Trey Mancini would stay hot, lining a first pitch slider off the foul pole in left, his 24th home-run.  The 110 mph laser would score hit batsman Iglesias and Nunez who had doubled him to 3rd.  Mike Baumann would hold the lead into the 6th inning after he gave  up a 3-spot in the 5th to complete his night.  Shed Long, who has been DJ Stewart hot, would give the Mariners the lead with his 2-run big fly in the 7th.  It was his second of the series and 23rd of the year.  The home team would close out the scoring with a run in the 8th.  Kikuchi would complete solid 8 innings before giving way to Austin Adams who closed out the 9th with his 3rd save.

 

The Orioles dropped the rubber game 7-3 in early back-and-forth scoring.  Shed Long continued to decimate Oriole pitching going 2 for 3 with his 3rd home-run of the series and knocking in 4 runs.  Jose Rondon would get the Birds' lone home-run with his solo-shot in the 2nd inning.  Alex Cobb would scuffle into the 4th inning giving up 5 earned run that the Orioles couldn't recover from.  The loss pushed his record to 6-8 and his era over 5.00.  Kyle Lloyd, who Hyde seems to run out there every day, got the O's through 6 with a lone unearned run.

 

The series win would improve the salty Mariners record to 54-40, 2.5 games behind the West leading A's.



#46 dude

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Posted 21 July 2020 - 12:15 AM

With the season kicking up this week, no need for this thread, so I'll recap the most recent series and then ask a question.

 

Also, you have to follow the transactions page, but Givens, in the simulation, was traded to the Dodgers back in June for 3 Dominican players all outside of the LAD top 30.

 

10-12 July, lost series to BOS (2-1), 3-6, 5-10, 3-0 

13-16 July, they lost this series 2-1 but the game logs disappeared

17-19 July, won series against TB (2-1), 3-9, 4-2, 8-6

20 July won today's game against the Mariners 10-6.

 

So at this point in the season, after 101 games, the Orioles are 42-59. 

That's a .416 W% (67 wins over 162) and they are in 4th place in the AL East 2 games ahead of TOR.

There are 5 teams worse (TEX: 34-67, DET: 35-65, KC: 36-65, MIA: 38-62, CHC: 40-60) and they are tied in the W column with PIT: 42-57 and SD: 42-58. So in this simulation, they'd pick 6th in 2021.

 

Their TEAM STATS look like THIS.

 

Here's the question.  If the Orioles stats looked like the numbers in the Sim (there's some combination of better-average-worse performances), what conclusions would you make for the 2021 season?  



#47 NewMarketSean

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Posted 21 July 2020 - 07:24 AM

That they climbed out of the basement but still have a long way to go to reach the attic. 
 

maybe you have some long term pieces to build around. 
 

keep drafting, signing IAFAs and keep looking to get better in every way. 
 

Avoiding 100 losses may be an accomplishment to some but it’s not to me. 


I never had friends later on like the ones I had when I was twelve. Jesus, does anyone?

#48 dude

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Posted 21 July 2020 - 09:57 AM

maybe you have some long term pieces to build around. 

 

This is what I was trying to get to.  Who?  (I get that everything below is simulated)

 

Hanser Alberto OPSd .595 ....do you offer him ARB2?

Chris Davis OPSd .422....release?

Trey Mancini OPSd .952...extend or try and trade or just continue to ride it out?

Nunez OPSd .758 with 21HR....1B? DH? trade? release?

Ruiz, .706....keep giving him a chance at 3B

Santander .769 and 25 HR....

The simulation released Severino (despite having a .755 OPS)

DJ Stewart went crazy, OPSing 1.073....what does that mean?

Y Diaz ,.676....what role does he get?

 

Clearly the 60 game (real) season will produce a different set of numbers, but if these were the numbers, what would the approach (lineup, FA, anything) for 2021 be?



#49 SportsGuy

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Posted 21 July 2020 - 10:02 AM

This is what I was trying to get to. Who? (I get that everything below is simulated)

Hanser Alberto OPSd .595 ....do you offer him ARB2?
Chris Davis OPSd .422....release?
Trey Mancini OPSd .952...extend or try and trade or just continue to ride it out?
Nunez OPSd .758 with 21HR....1B? DH? trade? release?
Ruiz, .706....keep giving him a chance at 3B
Santander .769 and 25 HR....
The simulation released Severino (despite having a .755 OPS)
DJ Stewart went crazy, OPSing 1.073....what does that mean?
Y Diaz ,.676....what role does he get?

Clearly the 60 game (real) season will produce a different set of numbers, but if these were the numbers, what would the approach (lineup, FA, anything) for 2021 be?


My takeaway was the BP looks bad but I don’t think that’s the case in real life.

Diaz’s OPs is in a very SSS, so it means nothing either way right now.

Davis, Alberto and Ruiz are likely nothing long term. They are simply placeholders.

Nunez can continue to be kept as long as a spot is there for him that isn’t blocking younger, more talented overall players.

Mentioning Mancini right now is worthless...we just don’t know what his future is. He should have been dealt already but they missed that boat.

#50 dude

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Posted 21 July 2020 - 11:37 AM

Mentioning Mancini right now is worthless...we just don’t know what his future is. He should have been dealt already but they missed that boat.

 

Obviously he's out in recovery right now.  What are you doing with him in 2021?  He's only going to get a fraction of his 4.75M (like everyone else) this season....but the sim obviously likes his profile....do you pay him 4.5M (or ?) in 2021 to see if he can produce or are you done with him.  We will have no other (performance) data points for Trey until they 1) non-tender 2) tender him or 3) work out a contract (non-arbitration).  If you keep him for 2021, the expectation is that you would play him somewhere.



#51 SportsGuy

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Posted 21 July 2020 - 11:38 AM

Obviously he's out in recovery right now.  What are you doing with him in 2021?  He's only going to get a fraction of his 4.75M (like everyone else) this season....but the sim obviously likes his profile....do you pay him 4.5M (or ?) in 2021 to see if he can produce or are you done with him.  We will have no other data points for trey until they 1) non-tender 2) tender him or 3) work out a contract (non-arbitration).  If you keep him for 2021, the expectation is that you would play him somewhere.


You can’t trade him and you don’t nontender him unless he is in really bad shape.

So, yes of course you play him. No reason not to.




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