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BBREF and the 2020 season....


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#1 dude

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Posted 15 May 2020 - 01:04 PM

Someone posted this before and I started following it because, well, there's nothing else to follow.

 

Orioles sit at 16-27 after today.

 

They got 1-hit by Glasnow today.

 

The Sim has the Orioles 3 best starters as guy that aren't on the team.  That's kind of funny.

 

I know they aren't using 'injuries', but they've got guys like Mancini in the Sim even though he's he's likely out for the year.  They did take out the TJS guys like Sale, Severino and Syndergaard.



#2 dude

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Posted 15 May 2020 - 01:05 PM

League Summary



#3 dude

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Posted 15 May 2020 - 01:06 PM

I should have put "Simulated Season" in the title.



#4 dude

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Posted 16 May 2020 - 12:07 PM

Today: Alex Cobb looks to get on track against....wait....Blake Snell?  I thought that whiny little bitch wasn't playing for his paltry 3.75M (before taxes)?



#5 dude

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Posted 25 May 2020 - 12:26 PM

Today they thumped the CWS 8-1.  Orioles are now 20-34. 

 

Diaz made his debut today and homered.  So did Bryan Holiday.

 

Mancini continued his amazing recovery from surgery and is OPSing over 1.000.

 

2 pitchers, not on the Orioles roster, held the White Sox to 2 hits and a run.

 

They are including the exit velocity on balls in play.  Awesome.


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#6 Mike B

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Posted 25 May 2020 - 12:55 PM

Bryan Holiday.  I must have forgotten he was a non roster guy.


@mikeghg

#7 dude

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Posted 27 May 2020 - 06:37 PM

Orioles lost but Diaz homered for the second time in 2 days.  Engrave the plaque.



#8 RShack

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Posted 27 May 2020 - 06:41 PM

Orioles lost but Diaz homered for the second time in 2 days.  Engrave the plaque.

 

Will they tell you if somebody hits the Warehouse?


 "You say you've lost your faith, but that's not where its at.

  You have no faith to lose, and ya know it" - Bob Dylan


#9 dude

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Posted 27 May 2020 - 10:29 PM

Will they tell you if somebody hits the Warehouse?

 

Not sure, we might have to do the math. 

 

That shot by Diaz was a line drive in the 4th on a 3-2 pitch that went 398 ft with an exit velocity of 96.2mph.



#10 russsnyder

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Posted 28 May 2020 - 04:32 AM

Not sure, we might have to do the math.

That shot by Diaz was a line drive in the 4th on a 3-2 pitch that went 398 ft with an exit velocity of 96.2mph.


Damn.

He pissed on that ball.

#11 dude

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 11:15 PM

The Orioles (22-36) blistered the Jays today 13-6.

 

Trey Mancini continued his epic return from surgery with 5 hits and his 15th home-run to pace the Orioles 20 hit attack.

Mancini has posted a 1.096 OPS second in the league only to Juan Soto's 1.210.  Mike Trout who?

 

A guy not on the Orioles roster got another win. 

Of note, 14 of the Orioles 22 wins have been recorded by a guy not on the actual 40-man roster.



#12 dude

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Posted 30 May 2020 - 11:37 AM

Beat the Jays again today 6-4 improving their record to 23-36.

 

Not only can you not stop Trey, you can't even contain him.  Another 3 hit night with an rbi double and a solo bomb, #16.

 

Ruiz with 2 HRs (10).

 

Another Orioles win for a pitcher not on the roster.

 

Other notes.  Rangers are the worst team in the league at 16-42.  Cubs are in last in the NL Central with an Oriole-like 23-36 record.  Mariners are the surprising leaders in the AL West at 37-23. 



#13 russsnyder

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Posted 30 May 2020 - 12:33 PM

Beat the Jays again today 6-4 improving their record to 23-36.

Not only can you not stop Trey, you can't even contain him. Another 3 hit night with an rbi double and a solo bomb, #16.

Ruiz with 2 HRs (10).

Another Orioles win for a pitcher not on the roster.

Other notes. Rangers are the worst team in the league at 16-42. Cubs are in last in the NL Central with an Oriole-like 23-36 record. Mariners are the surprising leaders in the AL West at 37-23.


I guess the Astros reliance on the sign stealing is coming to the surface

#14 dude

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Posted 30 May 2020 - 01:11 PM

I guess the Astros reliance on the sign stealing is coming to the surface

 

Well, they're still pretty good (34-25) in this simulated season....so it's (the algorithms) still giving them credit for the numbers/progression these things use.  They lost Cole and have a softer pitching staff if you get/use age regressions (Verlander 3.95 and Grieinke 4.58 so far) so their pitching is worse but the offense (you can look at their stats) is the same other than Correa who's struggled (.729 OPS) so far.  Maybe he heard the Orioles were going to sign him.

 

These things have no way to trend off data not in the system, so until their real numbers trend down, the simulations won't reflect any consequence of their nefarious activity.


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#15 dude

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Posted 30 May 2020 - 05:06 PM

Can I also add this is a snapshot.  It's simulated so there is a (are) result(s) generated each day that wasn't the only possible outcome for that day, but you 'play the game' and see what happens(ed).

 

I used to follow a product 15+ years ago called DiamondMind (I think they're still around) that would do the simulated season 1000 times and you'd get an 'average' win total with some variance along some curve that would share potential for excellent or poor results.

 

That average win total represents something of an assessment of your Talent with variances (based on just the Talent) to get to Playoff% and WS%.  I'm not sure anyone does that anymore.  It would be easy enough to run a sim like OOTP21 1M times to get some results.  I know ESPN does something but it's pretty low fidelity (purely RS/RA).  Nothing is going to be perfect, because everyone will never run the average season, but you'll get something fairly reasonable. You'll get variance in a real season based on any number of things from changes in the Talent (better or worse performances) to other factors that many people disregard.



#16 dude

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Posted 31 May 2020 - 05:55 PM

Jays salvage the finale shutting out the Orioles 3-0.

 

Cobb pitched not horribly so there's a minor win there.  Hays with 2 hits but Ryu thwarted the Orioles previously hot bats.



#17 dude

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Posted 02 June 2020 - 11:29 PM

Kevin Kiermaier was traded (apparently) to the Cubs today in time to help the Northsiders drub the Orioles 13-0.

 

Kyle Hendricks baffled the Orioles for 7 innings scattering 4 hits and 2 walks.

 

The Orioles only threat came in the 3rd when Hanser Alberto led off the inning with a flyball double and moved to 3rd base on a Diaz groundout.  Hendricks got the pitcher to chop out to 3B and then retired Iglesias on a flyball to end the inning.

 

Kris Bryant showed off for his future team belting 3 homeruns and pacing the 13 run parade with 6 rbi.

 

After starting his career red hot in the first 2 games (3-7, 2HR), Yusniel Diaz has scuffled some since, going 3 for his last 25, dropping his OPS to .606.

 

The Orioles drop to 23-38.



#18 SportsGuy

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Posted 03 June 2020 - 07:12 AM

Uh oh, Diaz has struggled in fake baseball. Better trade him for Bell immediately!

#19 dude

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Posted 03 June 2020 - 09:37 AM

Uh oh, Diaz has struggled in fake baseball. Better trade him for Bell immediately!

 

Not yet, we have to fully vet him for 4 or 5 years.  Hopefully his profile will be well established by 2025.  Hopefully.



#20 Mackus

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Posted 03 June 2020 - 09:43 AM

Can't decide whose hyperbole is more extreme.




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