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Would you claim Machado?


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#1 dude

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 10:32 AM

This isn't a litigation of what happened or didn't happen.  We've shared lots of thoughts over 8 years about contracts and position and whatever else with Machado.

 

His facts are his facts right now.

 

He's owed 9/270M (straight 30M per), has an opt opt after 4 more years and is playing 3B.

 

This has nothing to do with rebuilding or whatever, 9 years covers whatever you think the Orioles can or should be doing (i.e. it doesn't matter where you "think we are in the process")

 

This isn't about the current crisis (assume crisis costs are neutral).

 

Many people considered Machado a Top 3-5 player in the game. 

Last year he was outside the top 100 in WAR and outside the top 50 in dWAR.

 

This isn't a statement about SD or anything else, they aren't waiving him at this point.

 

The question is, if he was put on waivers, would you claim him and assume his contract?



#2 Mackus

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 10:33 AM

Yes

#3 Mike B

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 10:38 AM

If I was a contender, yes.


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#4 dude

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 11:01 AM

If I was a contender, yes.

 

You're the Orioles. (I'm sorry, I guess I didn't say that.)



#5 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 11:13 AM

Not a chance.



#6 BSLRobShields

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 11:29 AM

I don’t think I would. I still have too many attitude questions about him.

But I would need to know more about how has matured since he left and things like that. If he has taken big steps with that, I probably would.
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#7 russsnyder

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 11:34 AM

No.

#8 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 12:03 PM

Nope. 

 

Only thing worse than lack of hustle is paying $270M for lack of hustle.


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#9 Hooded Viper

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 12:16 PM

Hell Yes I would!



#10 Mike B

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 01:31 PM

You're the Orioles. (I'm sorry, I guess I didn't say that.)

Than no.

Manny on a true contender could mean the difference.  Manny on a losing team, is lazy and not what you want on a team developing players.


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#11 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 01:37 PM

Depends if you think he is going to opt out

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

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#12 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 01:51 PM

Than no.
Manny on a true contender could mean the difference. Manny on a losing team, is lazy and not what you want on a team developing players.


He was lazy when they contended too.
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#13 dude

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 03:22 PM

Depends if you think he is going to opt out

 

I think it's reasonable to assume there's less than a 10% chance he opts out. 

 

The 5-year opt-out was likely more for show than leverage.



#14 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 03:23 PM

Yeah, I would.

#15 dude

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 03:25 PM

Than no.

Manny on a true contender could mean the difference.  Manny on a losing team, is lazy and not what you want on a team developing players.

 

Where you think you are in 'the process' shouldn't make much difference unless you think the Orioles aren't competing over the next 6 years (which takes him thru his age 32 season).

 

It just costs you 30M per to make him the answer at 3B (and a total 9/270 commitment), 



#16 BSLRobShields

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 03:26 PM

I would want him to opt out if we claimed him.
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#17 dude

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 03:41 PM

The Baseball Trades Value site is so fraught with challenges in their approach, it's of no actual value. 

 

...but I do like the tool as an exercise and understand why so many (that post there) seem to like it.

 

Just for fun, I went over there after I posted this to check out what they had as a 'value' on Machado.  They have him at -85, so basically, in their calculator, you'd have to throw The Sheriff (+85.4) into the deal to take him. :)

 

Like Trout, they took him out of the possibility of use, since everyone that goes there would take 2-4 of their top prospects and Machado to equal the negative value.  They have Davis at -69, so per the calculator, you could do Davis for Machado and minor prospects. :)



#18 dude

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 03:45 PM

I would want him to opt out if we claimed him.

 

He'd be going into his age 31 season with 5/150 locked in.  Unless he's doing something super special, he's not opting out.



#19 BSLRobShields

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 03:51 PM

He'd be going into his age 31 season with 5/150 locked in.  Unless he's doing something super special, he's not opting out.


He could be certainly be in line for a new 6-8 year deal.

30M a year in 4 years will probably not look as much as it does now.

But yea, he does have to be playing well.
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#20 Mackus

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 03:58 PM

I'd take 10-to-1 odds on him opting out.
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