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BSL: Pitching Staff Taking Shape


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#21 dude

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 06:19 PM

Can we post a spreadsheet here?



#22 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 06:24 PM

Can we post a spreadsheet here?

 

You can attach files. Hit the more reply options. 



#23 BSLRobShields

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 06:39 PM

For the purpose of this exercise, I leave the answer up to you.

Does DL Hall start the 2021 season in the MLs or MiLs?

Rob, is it fair to say that Kremer is our 3rd best SP prospect and you'd expect him to pitch this year and (1SP) start the 2021 season in the Majors?


1) No because of service time. By May? Yes.

2) 3rd best? I don’t think anyone has that title right now. This year? Absolutely.
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#24 dude

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 07:33 PM

            2020     2021    2022     2023     2024

SP1/5      X         X          X          X           X

SP2         B       Hall      Hall       Hall       Hall

SP3         C         C     GRod     GRod    GRod

SP4   Means  Means  Means   Means   Means

SP5         D    Kremer Kremer  Kremer  Kremer

 

(well, that's not great but maybe it looks better...)

 

Hey, that worked.  Hadn't tried to copy-paste a spreadsheet in, in a while. Ack...no it didn't :(

 

So each of those letters is 30+ starts.  You can do anything you want with them.

 

The reality is you aren't going to really 'know' anything based on 2020 performance.  Means performed his ass off last year and went from a non-prospect guy that almost quit baseball and if I'd suggest "5.00 ERA", nearly everyone would take the under (the lesser performance) to an All-Star in half a season.  You evaluate the underlying support for that performance (new change-up) and determine whether you've moved the expectation.  I have, most probably have, but I doubt you could trade him today at his performance levels.  If he posts a 4.25 ERA this year then he's trending backwards towards an earlier expectation.  Even if he goes under 4 this year again, people are still going to want to see him do it again. ....but...because he gave us the 2019 glimpse, we're going to give him opportunity to continue to prove it.

 

Honestly, for me, he's consumed the spot that I'd have put Akin or Lowther in....and that's fine.

 

The question is, do you want to find more of a front-or-the-rotation guy (SP1) that can help lead and develop your rotation....great, we can talk about FAs or other guys that might be available at some point to fit in that profile.

 

The Orioles likely can draft Emerson Hancock at 1-2 this year...is he a guy you want to fit into (at least at a Talent level) into that spot.

 

Would you rather treat it more as an SP5 and develop a guy internally to fill it.  You could go with a lesser trade or FA target that might fill more of the leadership, not Talent, role.

 

Right now, you have upper level (AA-AAA) guys like LHP Akin, Lowether, Wells, and Zimmerman and RHP Baumann, Sedlock and Hanifee that all could compete for a back-of-the-rotation job.  You can still leave 2-4 of them at AAA into the projection above and burn options leaving them in a back up role.

 

It's easy to add AAA depth (guys like Millone, LeBlanc, many others on other teams) if you need another arm or 2 to stabilize your depth.

 

We're going to get more.  If you really do have a Talent pipeline, then you are using guys at the top for a season or 2, deciding how they fit and you either project them into the profile and trade off the current guy (fine) or trade the prospect (fine) either way, you have depth and you'll get more.



#25 dude

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 07:42 PM

See if this works....

 

Nope.  When I attach the file it says I don't have permission.



#26 dude

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 07:48 PM

1) No because of service time. By May? Yes..

 

Don't answer this question, but I'm not sure why you promote a service time game with the lesser guys, but want to jump the better pitchers much faster with significantly less development.

 

I'll line through this (but leave it) if I misunderstood Rob's answer on Kremer versus Hall.


Edited by dude, 15 March 2020 - 09:46 AM.


#27 dude

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 08:08 PM

So I'll bring this back to my post #5, the article by Nick and (I guess) the comments that derided my opinion.

 

1) I'm not sure why we think Cobb is an impact.  The last 2 seasons, we've posted the worst performances of the league and Orioles history.  If we think Cobb is special in terms of his leadership, we need him for more than 2 years.  His current contract is just riding it out and he leaves 20M on the books when he's gone.

 

2) The Orioles don't need to save money, but it is what it is and if I can leverage an asset I'm not going to be able to realistically develop in any meaningful way to save 20-30M, I do it in a heartbeat.  Ultimately those assets have roster issues and you wind up trading them at 50 cents on the dollar or nothing (because they fail).  I'll take the 25M now and not worry about it.

 

3) I likely need zero of the other players to fill a role and I might be more interested, at this point, in the profiles of Zimmerman or Hanifee to fill a back-end role over the other guys.



#28 BSLRobShields

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Posted 15 March 2020 - 06:28 AM

1) No because of service time. By May? Yes.
2) 3rd best? I don’t think anyone has that title right now. This year? Absolutely.


I’ll amend this answer slightly.

Some of this season is going to be lost. At this point, who knows how much. Once they get back, it will take some time before they are allowing guys to throw a lot of innings.

So it’s possible Hall won’t be here until AS break-ish time in 2021.

But if the health and performance is there this year and he gets in enough innings, May won’t be out of the question.
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#29 jamesdean

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Posted 15 March 2020 - 06:47 AM

I do think the bullpen has a chance to be markedly better than last year but starting pitching will once again be horrible. 



#30 dude

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Posted 15 March 2020 - 09:45 AM

I’ll amend this answer slightly.

Some of this season is going to be lost. At this point, who knows how much. Once they get back, it will take some time before they are allowing guys to throw a lot of innings.

So it’s possible Hall won’t be here until AS break-ish time in 2021.

But if the health and performance is there this year and he gets in enough innings, May won’t be out of the question.

 

Looking at it, I thought you were answering the Kremer question, not the Hall question.

 

Let's back up to the not-really-a-chart at the top of post #24.

 

Is it fair to say that's how you look at the bulk opportunity in the rotation (if you get 1SP).



#31 BSLRobShields

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Posted 15 March 2020 - 10:27 AM

Looking at it, I thought you were answering the Kremer question, not the Hall question.
 
Let's back up to the not-really-a-chart at the top of post #24.
 
Is it fair to say that's how you look at the bulk opportunity in the rotation (if you get 1SP).


I don’t really know. That’s what we need to find out.

Agreed about the likely Hall and GRod timetables.

Beyond that, I think it’s a cluster of guys that could compete for other spots.

I’m not willing to put Means in any category yet either.
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#32 dude

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Posted 20 March 2020 - 09:31 PM

Sale to have TJS.  Out 15 months. Just saying.






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