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Balt Sun: Q&A: Bill Ripken on his old school vs. new school book, his war on WAR, and the state of the Orioles


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#41 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 03:12 PM

Except that it isn't what he said. He said that when you get to such narrow differences in the output number (the 8.6 vs. 8.5 of Trout vs. Bregman) it isn't accurate enough to say that one is definitively better. But at larger spreads, there is much more confidence in the result (7 WAR vs. 5.2 WAR).

 

Right, he was saying he thought it was accurate within 0.1 WAR.  To me, that's pinpoint accuracy.



#42 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 03:19 PM

I never said it had pinpoint accuracy. Even pointed out that decimal place differences don’t mean much. 2 whole point differences, pretty easy to see though. Fangraphs metric for WAR is probably a better one the BBRef because their foundation is metrics. They use metrics in their evaluation that BBRef doesn’t.

All I’m implying with WAR is that it is a snapshot. If you wanted you compare two players you wouldn’t say X has 0.2 more WAR than Y. X is better. You might say, I didn’t expect X to compare as closely to Y. Let me look deeper into why that is.

Then you probably find your answer in the other stats.

 

OK, so you agree that bWAR is flawed.  Progress!

 

And fWAR is accurate within, what, 0.9, if you can ignore decimals?  That maybe isn't all that accurate - what's the WAR for an average regular, 2 or 3?  0.9 is like a 40% error.

 

Anyway, maybe all of this is just semantics over the meaning of "flawed."  To me, it just means "not perfect" or "could be improved."  I think WAR is a good stat, just one that could be improved on (and will be, especially as defensive metrics advance).



#43 bmore_ken

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 04:13 PM

I think more like a player with 8.6 WAR isn’t always better than 8.5 WAR. Last year this was Mike Trout or Alex Bregman.

Player with 7.0 WAR and 5.2 WAR were Anthony Rendon and Yasmani Grandal. It’s not a debate which of those two players is better.

But your example shows how inconsistent  the stat is. Take 2012

 

2012 Mike Trout (10.3)   Miguel Cabrera (6.4)

Guess who won the MVP that year?



#44 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 05:18 PM

But your example shows how inconsistent  the stat is. Take 2012

 

2012 Mike Trout (10.3)   Miguel Cabrera (6.4)

Guess who won the MVP that year?

Eh those two things are not necessarily equatable. Way more goes into MVP than just a guys performance. Tigers went to the World Series. Angels didn't even make the playoffs.



#45 DJ MC

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 06:11 PM

Right, he was saying he thought it was accurate within 0.1 WAR.  To me, that's pinpoint accuracy.

 

No, again, that is the opposite of what he said. He used the 0.1 difference as an example of when you wouldn't declare X better than Y.


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#46 DJ MC

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 06:12 PM

But your example shows how inconsistent  the stat is. Take 2012

 

2012 Mike Trout (10.3)   Miguel Cabrera (6.4)

Guess who won the MVP that year?

 

So, you don't remember the MVP discussion that year?


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#47 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 06:37 PM

So, you don't remember the MVP discussion that year?


Oh I do! Weber wanted to tie me to train tracks!
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#48 BSLRobShields

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 06:56 PM

But your example shows how inconsistent the stat is. Take 2012
2012 Mike Trout (10.3) Miguel Cabrera (6.4)
Guess who won the MVP that year?


The writers being morons doesn’t mean the stat is inconsistent or wrong.

It means they don’t know what they are talking about.
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#49 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 10:31 PM

No, again, that is the opposite of what he said. He used the 0.1 difference as an example of when you wouldn't declare X better than Y.


Right, which implies that he thinks WAR is accurate all the way up to that point, which I would call pinpoint.

#50 DJ MC

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 11:12 PM

Right, which implies that he thinks WAR is accurate all the way up to that point, which I would call pinpoint.

 

Ok


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#51 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 12:44 AM

I think more like a player with 8.6 WAR isn’t always better than 8.5 WAR. Last year this was Mike Trout or Alex Bregman.

Player with 7.0 WAR and 5.2 WAR were Anthony Rendon and Yasmani Grandal. It’s not a debate which of those two players is better.



Quoted because someone misread.
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#52 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 12:46 AM

OK, so you agree that bWAR is flawed. Progress!

And fWAR is accurate within, what, 0.9, if you can ignore decimals? That maybe isn't all that accurate - what's the WAR for an average regular, 2 or 3? 0.9 is like a 40% error.

Anyway, maybe all of this is just semantics over the meaning of "flawed." To me, it just means "not perfect" or "could be improved." I think WAR is a good stat, just one that could be improved on (and will be, especially as defensive metrics advance).


How would you improve it? Tell me what the equation is first. Then tell me how you would make it better.
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#53 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 07:11 AM

But your example shows how inconsistent the stat is. Take 2012
2012 Mike Trout (10.3) Miguel Cabrera (6.4)
Guess who won the MVP that year?


Again. Use Fangraphs. The margin is closer. 10.1 to 7.3. Cabrera was the first triple crown winner since Yaz. No problem with him being MVP. But RBI can be slightly luck related.
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#54 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 02:55 PM

How would you improve it? Tell me what the equation is first. Then tell me how you would make it better.

 

I think that going forward, defense is going to be measured more and more using data from the statcast cameras.  That will make defensive metrics more accurate, which will make WAR more accurate.

 

Again, maybe it's just semantics - I'm saying that if you can make WAR more accurate, if there's room for improvement, then the current version must have flaws/be flawed.  But I still think the current version of WAR is a good stat, probably the best stat that's publicly available.



#55 jamesdean

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 04:19 PM

Man do I miss the days of just looking at the basics...AB/H/R/HR/DO/TR/RBI/BB/SO/.AVG.  


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#56 Russ

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 04:36 PM

Man do I miss the days of just looking at the basics...AB/H/R/HR/DO/TR/RBI/BB/SO/.AVG.


And if you can interpret the back of a baseball card correctly, account for defense and baserunning and park effects, your way is probably just as good.
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#57 bmore_ken

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Posted 23 February 2020 - 02:58 PM

Again. Use Fangraphs. The margin is closer. 10.1 to 7.3. Cabrera was the first triple crown winner since Yaz. No problem with him being MVP. But RBI can be slightly luck related.


The point is shouldn't the guy with the higher WAR be the MVP since WAR is the holy grail of how good a player is??



#58 bmore_ken

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Posted 23 February 2020 - 02:59 PM

Man do I miss the days of just looking at the basics...AB/H/R/HR/DO/TR/RBI/BB/SO/.AVG.  


Amen brother



#59 BSLRobShields

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Posted 23 February 2020 - 03:07 PM


The point is shouldn't the guy with the higher WAR be the MVP since WAR is the holy grail of how good a player is??


Not always but a lot of time, yes they should..especially if it’s a wide gap, like the example being discussed.
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#60 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 23 February 2020 - 03:15 PM


The point is shouldn't the guy with the higher WAR be the MVP since WAR is the holy grail of how good a player is??


Who said this?
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