Photo

2020 Ravens General Talk


  • Please log in to reply
765 replies to this topic

#421 BSLGabeFerguson

BSLGabeFerguson

    Ravens Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,713 posts
  • LocationCity of Angels

Posted 20 February 2020 - 08:12 PM

I feel like Pierce's ability to pressure or at least force double teams against the pass is underrated. No he doesnt get home at a high rate but guys his size rarely do. He is more disruptive than Williams.


My question with Judon is how much more money is he going to get than a vet like Derek Wolfe for an example. Is the difference in money proportional to the value and impact between the two. I doubt it will be.

I think Wolfe would be a great addition, but he has dealt with injuries and is on the wrong side of 30. There is a lot of risk with a player like him.

 

I am hesitant to give Judon a long term deal as well, but if the Franchise Tag is still an option I think it would be a very good option in this instance.


@gabefergy

#422 cprenegade

cprenegade

    All Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,120 posts

Posted 20 February 2020 - 08:14 PM

Was it franchise or transition.? This year they can do both.

 

According to ESPN it is both.  Both tags will be eliminated in the new CBA.  Seems like a concession the owners are giving in order to get a 17th game and expanded playoffs.  Players union believes it will result in more bidding wars for top players and higher contracts.  



#423 TwentyThirtyFive

TwentyThirtyFive
  • Members
  • 175 posts

Posted 20 February 2020 - 08:15 PM

I think Wolfe would be a great addition, but he has dealt with injuries and is on the wrong side of 30. There is a lot of risk with a player like him.

I am hesitant to give Judon a long term deal as well, but if the Franchise Tag is still an option I think it would be a very good option in this instance.

Sure Wolfe is riskier but its why you'd get near equal production at a lower cost. I prefer to take that risk on a shorter deal than give Judon a big deal. I do agree with you that if we keep Judon the tag is the best option.

#424 Ricker Says

Ricker Says

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 45,287 posts
  • LocationGermantown, MD

Posted 20 February 2020 - 08:26 PM

And we all regret the Flacco contract.

What was learned by that? In this case, nothing.

Regret? I don't think so. Hate that it had to be done and knew it'd make the margin for error in other roster additions zero? I think we were there.
@0TheRick0 (AKA The Rick)
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." ~ The Earl of Baltimore

#425 TwentyThirtyFive

TwentyThirtyFive
  • Members
  • 175 posts

Posted 20 February 2020 - 08:32 PM

Something else crossed my mind today. The further we get away from the season and closer to FA without word from Yanda the better I feel his chances are that he returns. I sense the team would prefer to know and he'd probably let them know by the start of FA if he were likely to retire.
  • sandiegosean likes this

#426 Mike B

Mike B

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 17,727 posts
  • LocationTowson Md.

Posted 20 February 2020 - 09:59 PM

Something else crossed my mind today. The further we get away from the season and closer to FA without word from Yanda the better I feel his chances are that he returns. I sense the team would prefer to know and he'd probably let them know by the start of FA if he were likely to retire.

He mentioned in one of the interviews he did, that he would make sure that the team would know well before the draft.


@mikeghg

#427 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 88,574 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 20 February 2020 - 10:00 PM

Regret? I don't think so. Hate that it had to be done and knew it'd make the margin for error in other roster additions zero? I think we were there.


Put it this way. If you knew after the SB what he would do between then and last year, you wouldn’t have signed the deal.
@BSLRobShields

#428 Ricker Says

Ricker Says

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 45,287 posts
  • LocationGermantown, MD

Posted 20 February 2020 - 11:05 PM


Put it this way. If you knew after the SB what he would do between then and last year, you wouldn’t have signed the deal.

Remember how high we all were after that ridic run? It's impossible to know what would've happened and I felt it had to be done. But I hear you.
@0TheRick0 (AKA The Rick)
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." ~ The Earl of Baltimore

#429 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 88,574 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 21 February 2020 - 06:20 AM

Remember how high we all were after that ridic run? It's impossible to know what would've happened and I felt it had to be done. But I hear you.



I felt it had to be done too.

But the biggest thing I learned from that, or at least had it reinforced to me, is that you don’t pay elite money for good to very good players.

And here we are, talking about doing the exact same thing for Judon.

The Ravens have had several swings and misses on big contracts the last 5 or so years and they were a big reason why they were in cap jail for a while.

I don’t want to see them go down that path again.

It’s one thing if you sign a top level guy and they get hurt or whatever. That happens to everyone. But when you go into the contract already regretting the deal, that’s bad imo.
  • Ricker Says likes this
@BSLRobShields

#430 BSLMikeRandall

BSLMikeRandall

    Sr. Ravens Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 20,491 posts

Posted 21 February 2020 - 10:48 AM

I felt it had to be done too.

But the biggest thing I learned from that, or at least had it reinforced to me, is that you don’t pay elite money for good to very good players.

And here we are, talking about doing the exact same thing for Judon.

The Ravens have had several swings and misses on big contracts the last 5 or so years and they were a big reason why they were in cap jail for a while.

I don’t want to see them go down that path again.

It’s one thing if you sign a top level guy and they get hurt or whatever. That happens to everyone. But when you go into the contract already regretting the deal, that’s bad imo.


This is not even close to Flacco.

If Judon just racked up 12 sacks in the last four games of the year or something crazy...maybe.

Flacco was made the highest paid player after winning a SB. He started the next season third in that category.

We’re not talking about elite money for Judon. Or shouldn’t be. I mentioned in my article that the stats trend the way Za Darius Smiths did as a Raven. Arguably could get the same contract, 4/$66M. Less than half the total value of Khalil Mack ($141M) Makes him the 10th or 11th highest paid edge rusher. Not elite money at all. If we’re doing tiers its not elite tier, maybe bottom second tier/top of tier three.
@BSLMikeRandall

#431 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 88,574 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 21 February 2020 - 11:18 AM

This is not even close to Flacco.

If Judon just racked up 12 sacks in the last four games of the year or something crazy...maybe.

Flacco was made the highest paid player after winning a SB. He started the next season third in that category.

We’re not talking about elite money for Judon. Or shouldn’t be. I mentioned in my article that the stats trend the way Za Darius Smiths did as a Raven. Arguably could get the same contract, 4/$66M. Less than half the total value of Khalil Mack ($141M) Makes him the 10th or 11th highest paid edge rusher. Not elite money at all. If we’re doing tiers its not elite tier, maybe bottom second tier/top of tier three.


He’s going to get more than Smith. Just how it works.
@BSLRobShields

#432 BSLMikeRandall

BSLMikeRandall

    Sr. Ravens Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 20,491 posts

Posted 21 February 2020 - 11:47 AM

He’s going to get more than Smith. Just how it works.

Maybe. Depends on the years. But if so we're talking $70M tops, not $100M.

 

Of course on the open market some team that loses annually that has $80M to cap space to burn could go that high. I'm not willing to go more than what Smith got unless its by a couple mil. 


@BSLMikeRandall

#433 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 88,574 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 21 February 2020 - 01:18 PM

Btw, I think top 10 money is pretty elite.

He should be getting paid like a guy in the 20-30 range.
@BSLRobShields

#434 BSLMikeRandall

BSLMikeRandall

    Sr. Ravens Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 20,491 posts

Posted 21 February 2020 - 02:47 PM

Btw, I think top 10 money is pretty elite.

He should be getting paid like a guy in the 20-30 range.

I don’t think 1/3 of the leagues starting pass rushers equal elite. Or if you consider maybe each team has two, 1/6. Either way, if you call it 64 starting pass rushers, elite would be three to four. Next tier probably takes you ten, then 11 to 25 are pretty much interchangeable. I’m gonna have to go back and see what I thought about the Smith deal. Pretty sure I was thinking it was on overspend by the Packers. But Judon’s stats are better than Smiths were during his time here.

If you are offering 4/$22M to 4/$31M, top 20-30 range, I think Judon’s agent hangs up on you. Nick Bosa and Myles Garrett’s structured rookie contracts are more than that. The Ravens don’t have a top three pick, so I don’t think replacing him with a huge potential rookie is gonna work.

I used the numbers from Over the Cap. But Spotrac puts Judons estimated value around 4/$67M. Comps for stats and age when signing are Smith, Dee Ford, Oliver Vernon, and Chandler Jones. He rates just higher than Smith, but just below the other three who got contracts well over $70M.
@BSLMikeRandall

#435 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 88,574 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 21 February 2020 - 03:01 PM

My point was being paid as a top 10 pass rusher is essentially elite money.

He is an average to slightly above average player.

He is not a top 10 guy.
@BSLRobShields

#436 Biggsy

Biggsy

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,423 posts

Posted 21 February 2020 - 04:07 PM

I'm using a sample size of 4 years to say that Pierce isn't a 3 down player, and that he is interchangeable with Williams. It would be a mistake to give him a long term contract like the one WIlliams got. Paying one NT that doesn't affect the passing game $12M/year is absurd. Paying two would be a cruel joke.

Judon is certainly not horrid against the run. It's clear you don't like him and that's fine, but don't use hyperbole to make a wrong point. It doesn't help your case at all.

Clowney has one of the most horrifying injury/surgery histories of any player in the NFL. It's insane that any team would actually consider giving him ~ $20M/year over a long term deal. His actual production never lived up to the hype anyways.


No, your sample size was of "a few games". 2 years ago he missed like 6 games and the difference in the run defense was night and day. I do agree that we shouldn't pay top money to both William.s and Pierce.

And Judon scored a 59 rating in run defense on PFF 3 out of his 4 years, including last season. He had an awesome tackle rating of 38 this season as well. A guy gets buried by lineman, crashes too much and can't tackle. Sounds like a guy who's horrid against the run to me. My point is not wrong, PFF backs me.

Now, I dont dislike Judon. I just dont want to pay the guy like hes an elite edge defender when be is above average at best.
  • bmore_ken likes this

#437 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 88,574 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 21 February 2020 - 04:32 PM

I do think whoever signs Clowney is really going to regret it.

Love how great he is against the run and setting the edge...that’s so important but I need my 100M pass rusher to you know, get sacks.
@BSLRobShields

#438 Steve55

Steve55

    Rookie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 673 posts

Posted 21 February 2020 - 05:21 PM

I do think whoever signs Clowney is really going to regret it.

Love how great he is against the run and setting the edge...that’s so important but I need my 100M pass rusher to you know, get sacks.

 

Clowney's going to set the market. After him the prices drop.



#439 Biggsy

Biggsy

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,423 posts

Posted 21 February 2020 - 08:03 PM

I do think whoever signs Clowney is really going to regret it.

Love how great he is against the run and setting the edge...that’s so important but I need my 100M pass rusher to you know, get sacks.



Sacks are a fickle stat. Kind of like pitcher's wins in baseball. I mean, Calias Campbell had only 6 sacks. But he had 46 hurries and 19 QB hits. Dude got to the QB all season despite only having 6 sacks.

Clowney averages 42 hurries a season and like 12 or 13 QB hits. I could care less about a misleading stat like sacks. If I know the guy is getting to the QB at an elite level as well as being one of, if not the best run defenders on the edge, I'm ecstatic he's on my team. Clowney is still young, he puts up extremely good, to elite pass rush numbers. And he sets the edge better than pretty much everyone right now.

Now, if your argument is that he is a huge injury concern, that's a legitimate worry and knock. I can't argue with that. But insinuating that he isn't a good pass rusher is laughable.

#440 Don Olsen

Don Olsen
  • Members
  • 211 posts
  • LocationSeverna Park, MD

Posted 22 February 2020 - 11:18 AM

I am not worried about Clowney's health that much.  He is playing around 255 lbs compared to the weight during injuries of 285/290.  He started to understand what it was to be a pro in 2016 and leaned out.  Since leaning out, he had only missed 3 games with the Texans and started to shows flashes of dominance.

 

I suspect him having his hand in the dirt in a 4/3, the Seahawks asked him to add 10-15 pounds to his frame and that sudden weight gain put stress on his lower half and core, so it does not surprise me one bit that he had an abductor injury last year.  If he gets back with a 3/4 defense, he can play in two and three point stances and around 250-255 pounds.  As he is getting slightly older, he would be better served playing lighter.

 

I don't know if I would reset the edge rush department on him, or really any other player in this class.  None are a total player that is worthy to reset the market, but I understand its never about talent.  It's more of opportunity and team needs.


@Olsen_Don




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users

Partners