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BSL: Week 7, Turning Point for Titans and Ravens


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#1 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 10:16 AM

BSL: https://www.baltimor...-titans-ravens/

 

Week 7 was the week the Ravens acquired Marcus Peters, solidifying their defense. Making a statement win in Seattle, setting the tone for the rest of the season.

 

It was also the week Ryan Tannehill cemented himself in the starters role over Marcus Mariota, and the Titans have been a far better team than their record, or seed in the playoffs indicates. 

 

I take a deep dive into the numbers (PFF) and measure the two teams since week 7, where both teams are who they are most coming into this game. 


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#2 BSLJordanKough

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 12:57 PM

Some great stats in here Mike. Love the data on Judon and Jackson/Tannehill. Great article. 

 

But the deal is that The Titans are not your typical six seed. As the two teams have evolved over the season, you could consider this a matchup between the 10-0 Ravens and the 8-3 Titans. How much difference is there really?

 

I agree, don't take anything for granted, that being said...a nit to pick here about six seeds. I think a lot of six seeds in fact look like this Tennessee team. Against winning teams they have two wins. One by 3 against KC on two blocked FG attempts, and one against the Pats winning by 7 but really was just 1 on what was a clearly declining offense. Would they have beaten Houston again if they didn't rest? Who knows, but they couldn't beat them at home 3 weeks earlier. 8-3 is 5-6 without one blocked FG, one TD drive from the Pats, and a repeat of a Houston game that isn't a team resting. 

 

I'd add to that I think the WC games are always closer than the Divisional games. Some of that is teams being tired, some of that I think is quality of teams. On the road since 2013 to 2018 there have been 13 wins in the last 6 seasons (WC teams winning more games than losing, that surprised me). Chronologically counting back to the Chargers, Eagles (6), Colts (6), Titans, Falcons (6), Chiefs, Steelers (6), Packers, Seahawks (6), Ravens (6), Saints (6), Chargers (6), Niners. By my count 8 of 13 wins were six seeds. Backing up the notion that these are teams that are more likley riding a hot streak. That surprised me. Even more surprising, none of those six seeds won in the next round.

 

One more thought here, you have to go back to 2011 to find a 9-7 team that won in the divisional round period.

 

Again, don't take anything for granted. But, it would be stunning for Tennessee to win this game from a historical stand point. I actually wonder if part of the reason that 6 seeds don't fair well is that 1 seeds (not only are the best team) have had usually more than one week to really rest. If the 1 seed is locked up, you often see teams resting in Week 17. Which has to be even more of an edge. 


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#3 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 01:11 PM

Some great stats in here Mike. Love the data on Judon and Jackson/Tannehill. Great article. 

 

 

I agree, don't take anything for granted, that being said...a nit to pick here about six seeds. I think a lot of six seeds in fact look like this Tennessee team. Against winning teams they have two wins. One by 3 against KC on two blocked FG attempts, and one against the Pats winning by 7 but really was just 1 on what was a clearly declining offense. Would they have beaten Houston again if they didn't rest? Who knows, but they couldn't beat them at home 3 weeks earlier. 8-3 is 5-6 without one blocked FG, one TD drive from the Pats, and a repeat of a Houston game that isn't a team resting. 

 

I'd add to that I think the WC games are always closer than the Divisional games. Some of that is teams being tired, some of that I think is quality of teams. On the road since 2013 to 2018 there have been 13 wins in the last 6 seasons (WC teams winning more games than losing, that surprised me). Chronologically counting back to the Chargers, Eagles (6), Colts (6), Titans, Falcons (6), Chiefs, Steelers (6), Packers, Seahawks (6), Ravens (6), Saints (6), Chargers (6), Niners. By my count 8 of 13 wins were six seeds. Backing up the notion that these are teams that are more likley riding a hot streak. That surprised me. Even more surprising, none of those six seeds won in the next round.

 

One more thought here, you have to go back to 2011 to find a 9-7 team that won in the divisional round period.

 

Again, don't take anything for granted. But, it would be stunning for Tennessee to win this game from a historical stand point. I actually wonder if part of the reason that 6 seeds don't fair well is that 1 seeds (not only are the best team) have had usually more than one week to really rest. If the 1 seed is locked up, you often see teams resting in Week 17. Which has to be even more of an edge. 

I appreciate it. And good points here as well. 

 

I guess typically it seems like the six seed is the team that slides in in the last week. Sure, in the NFC the Vikings were only the six seed because the NFC East, undeservedly, had to be represented. Had Pittsburgh somehow got in, or had Oakland slipped in by way of PIT and TEN losing, then yeah, I'm predicting a NE rout and we're playing Houston this week. Or if they get past NE, then I'm predicting a rout this week. 

 

Doesn't really help my argument, but similar to the Ravens last year, the Titans are two different teams. Week 1-6 is far different than 7-present. The Ravens last year flipped the script mid-season and rode it to the division title and a playoff game...which they crapped the bed in. (Doesn't help my argument). 


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#4 BSLJordanKough

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 01:32 PM

Doesn't really help my argument, but similar to the Ravens last year, the Titans are two different teams. Week 1-6 is far different than 7-present. The Ravens last year flipped the script mid-season and rode it to the division title and a playoff game...which they crapped the bed in. (Doesn't help my argument). 

 

I think this is hte hard part, too. I think these teams eventually just run out of steam. The Ravens did one thing well last year, they ran it with Lamar. The Chargers dared them to do something different and they lost. 

 

For whatever reason, the Pats did not dare the Titans to do something different. In many ways they dared them to do the same thing and lost as a result. 

 

I think the Ravens are going to flip that script. They are going to load the box up, go Cover 0. Put Peters and Humphrey on the outside guys and force the Titans hand. 

 

I also think, with what Lamar said about the loss last year and not waiting to press the issue, the offense is going to come out gunning for TDs early and do so in the air. The Titans go 3 and out a lot...I'm going to crush the Ravens first half line this week. I think they're up a lot early, stoke up the crowd and just suck the life out of Tannehill and this Titans team. 






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