Photo

% Chance?


  • Please log in to reply
7 replies to this topic

#1 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 117,620 posts

Posted 07 January 2020 - 10:33 AM

If you were assigning a percentage of likelyhood, what is your expectation that these players are traded at some point in 2020? 

 

Mancini?
Givens?
Cobb? 
Nunez? 

 

 

 

I'm thinking: 

 

Mancini 20% - I don't think the O's are inclined to move him. Think they will continue to listen though.

 

Givens 95% - It would be highly surprising to me if the O's don't trade him. 

 

Cobb 20% - He has to show he's healthy, and able to take the ball every 5th, and then perform. If he does perform like he did in the 2nd half of '18, he's movable, but the O's might choose not to. 

 

Nunez 20% - Even if the O's release Davis, there is a coming log-jam at 1st and DH. Nunez can help his cause for staying with the O's, if he can show to be adequate at 3rd. That also helps make him more attractive elsewhere. As far as moving him, his minimal contract helps. His legitimate power helps. If teams only look at him as 1st / DH, that reduces options. 


  • Mike B and bmore_ken like this

#2 bmore_ken

bmore_ken

    All Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,424 posts

Posted 07 January 2020 - 10:47 AM

I can't disagree with any of that



#3 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 42,779 posts

Posted 07 January 2020 - 11:11 AM

Disagree strongly on Mancini.  I'd say it's a 2-1 or better chance he's traded this year, assuming 2020 also includes the early part of the offseason before the New Year.

 

Slight disagreement on the others either up or down, but not worth nitpicking over a few percentage points.  



#4 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,606 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 07 January 2020 - 11:16 AM

I don’t get any rationale, knowing his age and what the Os are doing, that you keep Mancini. 

No argument is logical to me outside of no one wanting to trade for him.

I’ll be surprised if he is on the 2021 Orioles roster.

Givens is close to 100%.

I say 1% for Nunez and 5% for Cobb.


@BSLRobShields

#5 Mike B

Mike B

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 17,036 posts
  • LocationTowson Md.

Posted 07 January 2020 - 11:30 AM

If you were assigning a percentage of likelyhood, what is your expectation that these players are traded at some point in 2020? 

 

Mancini?
Givens?
Cobb? 
Nunez? 

 

 

 

I'm thinking: 

 

Mancini 20% - I don't think the O's are inclined to move him. Think they will continue to listen though.

 

Givens 95% - It would be highly surprising to me if the O's don't trade him. 

 

Cobb 20% - He has to show he's healthy, and able to take the ball every 5th, and then perform. If he does perform like he did in the 2nd half of '18, he's movable, but the O's might choose not to. 

 

Nunez 20% - Even if the O's release Davis, there is a coming log-jam at 1st and DH. Nunez can help his cause for staying with the O's, if he can show to be adequate at 3rd. That also helps make him more attractive elsewhere. As far as moving him, his minimal contract helps. His legitimate power helps. If teams only look at him as 1st / DH, that reduces options. 

I think, you are low on Mancini.  I don't think trade talk picks up until July but I would say about 50 % then.

 

Givens seems right.

 

Healthy Cobb - 50%

 

Current Cobb - 0%

 

Nunez IMO is more likely a non tender.   It is a shame, he could solve a lot of problems by not being a disaster at 3B.


@mikeghg

#6 BSLSteveBirrer

BSLSteveBirrer

    Soccer Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,145 posts
  • LocationMS and ID

Posted 07 January 2020 - 11:54 AM

Well I think they are all 50%. They either are traded or they are not traded....lol

 

Mancini 50%

 

Givens 80%

 

Cobb  25%

 

Nunez 25%


  • BSLChrisStoner likes this

#7 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,940 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 07 January 2020 - 07:27 PM

Mancini: 80%  I actually went much lower, but I can't see them wanting to pay an ARB2 price (2021) for another season they aren't competing.

 

Givens: 95% It's the highest I'll go.

 

Healthy Cobb: 95% (no return, just see what $$ you can unload)

Injured Cobb: 0%

 

Nunez: 5%.  He should absolutely be the guy traded and there's a number of decent fits for him but they may hold on there another year.


  • mdrunning likes this

#8 russsnyder

russsnyder

    All Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,571 posts

Posted 08 January 2020 - 06:31 AM

Mancini: 75 % I am actually surprised that he is still here. If he starts the year strong, he should be gone by the deadline.

Givens: 90 % Here's hoping that he pitches well to maximize the return.

Cobb: 50 % It obviously depends on his health. I'm predicting a Cashner type return if and when he is dealt.

Nunez: 25% Unfortunately, DH types don't seem to have a lot of value. It would be nice to get Nunez on the field a bit more. Playing him at first shows that he can play the field and it keeps Davis out of the lineup.
  • sandiegosean likes this




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users

Partners