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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 07 January 2020 - 10:26 AM

Let's say the Orioles...

 

- Sign Wood, and McHugh. 
- Release Davis. 

 

 

The Opening Day Roster could look something like this: 

 

C: Severino
3rd: Ruiz
SS: Iglesias
2nd: Alberto
1st: Mancini 

LF: Smith
CF: Hays
RF: Santander
DH: Nunez

 

Bench: Sisco, Wilkerson, OF, UTI

 

Rotation: Means, Cobb, Wood, McHugh, Wojciechowski

 

Bullpen: Givens, Harvey, Scott, Tate, Stewart, Bleier or Fry, Castro or Armstrong, Bailey. 

 

*Stewart on the DL.
** Rucker would need to be on the roster, or offered back.

 

AAA: Akin, Kremer, Lowther, Baumann, Wells, Zimmerman, Kline, Carroll, Phillips, Martin, Mountcastle, Diaz. 

 

Thoughts / Questions: 

 

1) Without Davis, and unless Mancini is traded... Mancini should be at 1st.  
2) Smith goes into starting lineup with Stewart on DL.  Figure Santander plays better in RF than he would.
3) Iglesias, Hays, Ruiz pretty good gloves.
4) Bullpen competition is very tight, especially if the O's carry both Bailey and Rucker, even with 26th spot.
5) Who do you see as the other two bench spots behind Sisco and Wilkerson?

6) By June, Stewart is back, and Mountcastle is up.  Has Ruiz taken a step forward offensively? Has Nunez showed he can be livable at 3rd? Have the O's now traded Mancini or Nunez?

7) Is Givens traded before July?

8) How does playing time breakout between Severino and Sisco? 
9) Does Alberto look better at 2nd only playing there? Does he improve vs. RHP? 

10) Excited to watch Hays.  Like some of the pen arms. 

11) I'm thinking somewhere between 65-70 wins. 

12) Wood and McHugh could easily give the O's nothing, but the team looks much more like a ML roster with them listed. 

 

 

 


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#2 dude

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Posted 07 January 2020 - 09:51 PM

I don't think they're signing Wood and McHugh, but the rest...ok....and..

 

...the 2020 season passes by without changing anything?



#3 Mackus

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Posted 07 January 2020 - 09:57 PM


...the 2020 season passes by without changing anything?


I think after 2020 that Chris' expectation of a 500ish 2021 season will change. Does that count? :)

#4 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 07 January 2020 - 10:04 PM

I don't think they're signing Wood and McHugh, but the rest...ok....and..

 

...the 2020 season passes by without changing anything?


2020 season ends with Mountcastle at DH, Diaz in RF.  

At 3rd, hopefully either Nunez has shown he can be livable, or Ruiz takes another step forward offensively.
Or you end '20 knowing you'll need a better option.

Santander in LF. Hopefully he builds off what he did prior to his Sept. collapse.

Hopefully Hays having got a full year in CF.  

Akin and Kremer in the rotation, hopefully looking like legitimate 4th and 5th starters..  Lowther, and Baumann probably having gotten ML starts, and being ready to push for spots to begin '21.


By mid '21, Rutschman probably taking over at C.   

Mancini at 1st or traded. 
Givens traded. 

Young pen arms like Harvey, Tate, Scott, Kline having got extended time. Should have a good handle on what you have there.

You'll be that much closer to having developed a group internally, where you have decent options at some positions.

You'll be that much further along in obtaining organizational depth. 
You can use that depth, and your payroll flexibility to begin addressing needs next Winter. 


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#5 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 07 January 2020 - 10:05 PM

I think after 2020 that Chris' expectation of a 500ish 2021 season will change. Does that count? :)


I'll be disappointed if this time next year, I don't think .500 is within reach for the '21 season. 
It absolutely should be.



#6 Mackus

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Posted 07 January 2020 - 10:08 PM


I'll be disappointed if this time next year, I don't think .500 is within reach for the '21 season.
It absolutely should be.

Agree that it should be. Pessimistic that it will be.

#7 dude

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Posted 07 January 2020 - 10:27 PM

I think Elias has every intent to punt the 2021 season too.



#8 BSLRobShields

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 06:59 AM

I think Elias has every intent to punt the 2021 season too.

I don’t think this is a fair statement.

I think it’s pretty realistic to assume that the Orioles won’t carry a 100+M dollar payroll in 2021. Many high payrolls are high because of the arb numbers of their own talent. The Orioles won’t really have anyone on the 2021 team making big arb money unless Mancini is still here, which he likely/hopefully won’t be.

So, if by punt, you mean he won’t make any big signings or something like that, I feel that you are correct.

However, when the Os contend (or even look very competitive) it will be based on who is in the organization right now and who they bring in over the next 12 months in terms of trades, draft, etc...

To me, what Chris is saying is that he believes in the existing talent to get much better and make this team a lot better.

You use 2020 as a way to find out how good those kids are and how much you can really depend on them long term.

If guys like Mountcastle, Diaz and Hays suck, Rutschman looks more like Wieters than Posey and the young arms don’t look impressive, punting 2021 is pretty likely...2021 likely becomes what 2020 will be..a season long tryout. 2019 wasn’t as much a tryout because the guys you actually hope will be part of the long term weren’t ready to be up yet. That changes in 2020 and 2021.

If some or all of those guys look good and the team is heading in the right direction, some moves like we have seen from the WS are likely imo. Maybe not big splashes but some of the other moves become likely.

The reality is nothing works for this team if the existing talent doesn’t work out. It doesn’t matter who you sign or who you trade for, they must get a lot of positive production from who is here now.

Part of what Elias wants to do is make that overall talent base better. I believe he will do that but that will take a while to do.

In the meantime, the ONLY way you win is getting production from what you currently have.

You either believe in the talent or you don’t.
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#9 BSLNickStevens

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 07:40 AM

Thoughts / Questions: 

 

1) Without Davis, and unless Mancini is traded... Mancini should be at 1st.  
2) Smith goes into starting lineup with Stewart on DL.  Figure Santander plays better in RF than he would.
3) Iglesias, Hays, Ruiz pretty good gloves.
4) Bullpen competition is very tight, especially if the O's carry both Bailey and Rucker, even with 26th spot.
5) Who do you see as the other two bench spots behind Sisco and Wilkerson?

6) By June, Stewart is back, and Mountcastle is up.  Has Ruiz taken a step forward offensively? Has Nunez showed he can be livable at 3rd? Have the O's now traded Mancini or Nunez?

7) Is Givens traded before July?

8) How does playing time breakout between Severino and Sisco? 
9) Does Alberto look better at 2nd only playing there? Does he improve vs. RHP? 

10) Excited to watch Hays.  Like some of the pen arms. 

11) I'm thinking somewhere between 65-70 wins. 

12) Wood and McHugh could easily give the O's nothing, but the team looks much more like a ML roster with them listed. 

 

1) Davis won't be around by the end of the season, especially if Mountcastle comes up and his bat is successful. Mountcastle can't survive in the majors with the types of ABs he often had in the minors but he is a pretty good two-strike hitter and used more of the field last season so I'm confident. Also, if Diaz is healthy and produces as he did last year when healthy, I agree that he is the RF by the end of the year. 

 

2) I don't mind Smith's bat but his defense is laughable. He has an option and ends the year as a reserve in the minors. 

 

3) Strong up the middle with Severino/Iglesias/Hays.

 

4) I don't see Rucker making the roster. Maybe if Tate/Kline start the year in AAA for some reason. Cody Carroll will be up in the pen and I'm intrigued again after his AFL performance. Also, Evan Phillips has my interest. 

 

5) Mullins for his defense/speed? Dilson Herrera?

 

6) Mancini's development in 2019 wasn't just a juiced baseball and he I think we see similar numbers in 2020 and a big push for him from other teams by the deadline. Elias then finally gets the deal he's held out for. 

 

7) 100% chance.

 

8) I physically can't watch Sisco behind the plate anymore. I watch a lot of Norfolk Tides baseball, haven't missed a game in 3 years actually, and when he was with the Tides last season, his defense was easily the worst I've ever seen. Once Rutschman is up, I hope Sisco is gone. Orioles can have their pick of a backup. And no, Sisco's offense doesn't make up for anything. 

 

9) Yes. No. But I like Alberto's chances to be a super-utility.

 

10) Is Hays a product of a bit of prospect fatigue? I think so. He isn't the long-term answer at CF but he will do for now and his September performance was just a tease for what we see in 2020. Add Ryan McKenna here too. His AA numbers were still good despite the narrative of a "down year." I may be way too high on both, but I'll ride that train for a while.

 

11) Based on the quote from Elias yesterday about a lot of young pitchers graduating to the majors, plus the possible emergence of a few prospect bats, 2020 will surely be way more exciting. Is 65-70 wins possible? Maybe. If these rookies are good and their learning curve isn't too steep, sure. 

 

12) Maybe it's all of the Cashner talk, but my gut says Cashner will be the final ML free agent piece. Seems like a good opportunity to land him for dirt cheap with a bunch of incentives so he can reunite with Brocail.


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#10 mweb08

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 12:17 PM

Agree that it should be. Pessimistic that it will be.


Agreed. Without a significant infusion of outside talent, which I do not anticipate, it's expecting a lot imo out of the young in house talent to get to .500 being an expectation in 2021. If that were to happen, it would be a great sign for the future, though.

#11 BSLRobShields

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 12:44 PM

To me, the hope would be that this team wins 65-70 games this year and you see very good development from the younger players as the season goes on.

If that happens and you make a few additions, 75-85 wins should be within reach in 2021.
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#12 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 12:53 PM

Man I'd kill for 70 wins lol.

 

Anything to not be the laughingstock of the league.  What's so funny (relatively) is that we didn't even have the worst record last year, yet we took more pot-shots than the Tigers for sure. 


There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

"Now OPS sucks.  Got it."

"Making his own olive brine is peak Mackus."

"I'm too hungover to watch a loss." - McNulty

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#13 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 01:04 PM

10) Is Hays a product of a bit of prospect fatigue? I think so. He isn't the long-term answer at CF but he will do for now and his September performance was just a tease for what we see in 2020. Add Ryan McKenna here too. His AA numbers were still good despite the narrative of a "down year." I may be way too high on both, but I'll ride that train for a while.


Agree with a lot of the above; don't agree with the bold. Definitely think Hays can be the answer in CF; and would've felt the same even if his September had been poor.



#14 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 03:37 PM

I think Elias has every intent to punt the 2021 season too.

When, then, do you think Elias plans to not punt?



#15 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 04:09 PM

When, then, do you think Elias plans to not punt?


Every year Davis is on team, they are punting.

Kidding not really though.

I think this is very hard to tell because there is this vicious cycle of not calling guys up because you aren’t good. However one way to get good is to supplement veteran talent with young cost controlled players. But they have no reason to acquire any veteran talent (or retain in Villar’s case) because they aren’t good. O’s need to be doing one or the other and they are doing neither.
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#16 BSLRobShields

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 04:10 PM

They aren’t calling up young, cost controlled players?
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#17 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 04:30 PM

They aren’t calling up young, cost controlled players?

I’ll rephrase.

Young cost controlled players with a high ceiling.
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#18 BSLRobShields

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 04:35 PM

I’ll rephrase.
Young cost controlled players with a high ceiling.


Well I guess how you define high ceiling is in the eye of the beholder but there are only so many of those in all of baseball.

The Os high ceiling guys are a year or 2 away.

Mountcastle isn’t there yet imo.

But you also don’t need high ceiling guys to be a much more competitive team.

Agree you need them to help catapult you to a title contender but we aren’t talking about that now.

The Os have brought up and will be bringing up plenty of players that can be part of a contending team
And, in the meantime, cause them to be a much better team.
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#19 FFH

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 05:22 PM

There isn't enough critical, fortune-changing talent to expect a .500 season by 2021.

A system only does so much - you have to also have the talent. 

Where are the Middle Infielders?  Where is a 3b?

They will mostly likely show some improvement, but this team doesn't have the overall depth without getting more aggressive in the international market and without the willingness to sign more projectable FA with upside that they can trade off for prospects. 

I'm not criticizing the moves they have made, and I think in 8 years we are going to be talking about a steady, Cardinals-like pipeline of talent and a new Orioles way.  I'm already seeing that in the way they handle pickups, develop players, and judge talent.  It has me excited. But you have to remember the Astros took about 4 years to rebuild their team, and they still had to sign FAs to meet their overall goals. 

 

Imo Chris, your thought about dropping Davis has to be where the team moves towards.  He is eating a roster spot, and undermining the development and value of those around him. Trey is a 5-6 WAR player at 1st in 2019.  Nunez gets more reps at 1st.  They potentially have the ability to call up Mountcastle without Davis.  They have to get to a point where they realize that they need to take the risk and drop him.  Maybe restructure his contract - still front end it but lower the payout the next three years and make it a 6 or 8 year payout.



#20 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 06:06 PM

Well I guess how you define high ceiling is in the eye of the beholder but there are only so many of those in all of baseball.

The Os high ceiling guys are a year or 2 away.

Mountcastle isn’t there yet imo.

But you also don’t need high ceiling guys to be a much more competitive team.

Agree you need them to help catapult you to a title contender but we aren’t talking about that now.

The Os have brought up and will be bringing up plenty of players that can be part of a contending team
And, in the meantime, cause them to be a much better team.

Whatever you want to call it. High ceiling, everyday players. All I'm asking for here is solid MLB players with upside. Not HOFers. 

 

 

Opening Day Ready: 

Mountcastle

Hays

Harvey

Kremer

 

Could earn a spot in the spring:

Diaz

Lowther

Baumann

Wells

 

Not yet: 

Rutchman

Grayson Rodriguez

DL Hall

 

I realize that five of those eight names that I'd rather see get a shot in April aren't on the 40-man, but you can find five guys currently on there that can easily be dumped. Davis, Wojo, Hess, Armstrong, Fry, trade Givens, Kline, Wilkerson, Valaika...I could go on.


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