Photo

BSL: Infield Expectations


  • Please log in to reply
55 replies to this topic

#41 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,940 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 05 January 2020 - 04:10 PM

You think we have to identify who we want now.

 

No.

 

What I'm asking you to do is identify what you think a Championship lineup looks like.

 

What you can get later isn't any more special than what you can get today.

 

When I write down a lineup (and there's more than one) you get 2 things...

1) not good enough

2) That's dude's myth when he's the GM from both teams

 

What is good enough?  

We have over 80-100M (or more) in payroll flexibility today.



#42 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 117,715 posts

Posted 05 January 2020 - 04:14 PM

No.

 

What I'm asking you to do is identify what you think a Championship lineup looks like.

 

What you can get later isn't any more special than what you can get today.

 

When I write down a lineup (and there's more than one) you get 2 things...

1) not good enough

2) That's dude's myth when he's the GM from both teams

 

What is good enough?  

We have over 80-100M (or more) in payroll flexibility today.


But we don't have: 

 

1) Enough organizational depth today...

2) Haven't identified enough internal pieces yet. 

 

You can't go out and get everyone. 

You've got to build to a point where you look around the diamond and say, "We have reasonable answers here, here, and here. We have a surplus here, and a need there. Let's go get what we need." 



#43 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,663 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 05 January 2020 - 04:17 PM

No.
 
What I'm asking you to do is identify what you think a Championship lineup looks like.
 
What you can get later isn't any more special than what you can get today.
 
When I write down a lineup (and there's more than one) you get 2 things...
1) not good enough
2) That's dude's myth when he's the GM from both teams
 
What is good enough?  
We have over 80-100M (or more) in payroll flexibility today.


Lol, you need to understand context.

When you post a lineup, you talk about winning right now..not 3-5 years from now.

So yes, your lineups are never good enough and/or realistic enough to win right now.

You could certainly post some kind of combo of Downs, Correa and Austin Riley and no one can sit here and say, that’s not a championship IF in 3-5 years because we have no idea what happens with those players.

However, based on skill, upside and age, the possibility is certainly there.

But that’s not what you are normally talking about. You are talking about right now.
@BSLRobShields

#44 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,940 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 05 January 2020 - 04:26 PM

Is this a championship IF in 2020?

 

Understand my position.  

 

I want to build a team with that has 1) Opportunity to win and 2) that you can market

 

I personally don't think we're going to get to any season where we're going to look out and project the Orioles at 92 Wins and the other 4 teams in the Division will all have lesser projections.  I'm not saying it's 0% to get there (crazy things can happen) but you can see 0% from here.

 

When you have 4 Division competitors that are either well run, well resourced or both, I think it limits the upside of any season.

 

My goal would to be to build opportunity and then go hard after it.  It's more than Talent.  It's how this team posted the most wins from 2012-2016...not by be being the most Talented, but showing up and getting it done.  I certainly think you can build better teams than they had in those years.  Better ML roster, better MiL system and better player development.

 

I think we're 15-35% opportunity to make the Playoffs every year. 

I wouldn't promise the Playoffs, I could promise that Organizationally we're going to get after it.

 

We're currently going with the  0%, 0%, 0% then at some point 90%, 90%, 90%, 90% (it will be worth it).

I think that's absurdly difficult to deliver on.

 

...and the real bottom line is that if you have some secret sauce for delivering those 90% opportunities, super, you don't need one best draft pick (for X years) to deliver that 5 years from now.  Take your shots now and deliver on that system 4 or 5 years from now, because it's pretty much exactly the same system.



#45 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,663 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 05 January 2020 - 04:32 PM

Understand my position.  
 
I want to build a team with that has 1) Opportunity to win and 2) that you can market
 
I personally don't think we're going to get to any season where we're going to look out and project the Orioles at 92 Wins and the other 4 teams in the Division will all have lesser projections.  I'm not saying it's 0% to get there (crazy things can happen) but you can see 0% from here.
 
When you have 4 Division competitors that are either well run, well resourced or both, I think it limits the upside of any season.
 
My goal would to be to build opportunity and then go hard after it.  It's more than Talent.  It's how this team posted the most wins from 2012-2016...not by be being the most Talented, but playing showing up and getting it done.  I certainly think you can build better teams than they had in those years.  Better ML roster, better MiL system and better player development.
 
I think we're 15-35% opportunity to make the Playoffs every year. 
I wouldn't promise the Playoffs, I could promise that Organizationally we're going to get after it.
 
We're currently going with the  0%, 0%, 0% then at some point 90%, 90%, 90%, 90% (it will be worth it).
I think that's absurdly difficult to deliver on.
 
...and the real bottom line is that if you have some secret sauce for delivering those 90% opportunities, super, you don't need one best draft pick (for X years) to deliver that 5 years from now.  Take your shots now and deliver on that system 4 or 5 years from now, because it's pretty much exactly the same system.



All of this and you didn’t answer the question.

Do you think that’s a championship IF right now?

To expand on that, do you think it is one in 2021? 2022?
@BSLRobShields

#46 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,940 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 05 January 2020 - 04:52 PM

All of this and you didn’t answer the question.

Do you think that’s a championship IF right now?

To expand on that, do you think it is one in 2021? 2022?

 

If it wasn't clear, I think you could build a 20-35% opportunity to make the Playoffs depending on the other moves you make (obviously it's more than just those 3 positions).  For that group, I'd look to build a 3-4 year window that you develop behind.

 

 If you just dropped that group on the current lineup, you'd have...

 

2B Gordon/Alberto (Downs/2021)

SS Seager

DH/1B Mancini

3B Seager

CF Hays

LF Santander

RF Diaz (some point in 2020)

1B Davis (for now) DH/

C  Sisco/Severino

 

I'd have 1 or 2 different options to improve that group. There's several things I might have preferred that aren't available now.

 

You're basically getting in the middle of Lindor to LAD to make that happen.

 

I FULLY UNDERSTAND WE'RE COMMITTED TO LOSING THIS SEASON AND NEXT SEASON.



#47 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,663 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 05 January 2020 - 04:56 PM

You are asking us for a championship IF.

You posted one.

Do you think that’s a championship IF, yes or no?

Why is this so difficult for you to give me a one word answer?

You are dancing around the exact question you are frustrated we won’t answer.

Yes or no? If you can’t give that answer, just ignore this post and don’t respond with your books.
@BSLRobShields

#48 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,940 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 05 January 2020 - 05:05 PM

You are asking us for a championship IF.

You posted one.

Do you think that’s a championship IF, yes or no?

Why is this so difficult for you to give me a one word answer?

You are dancing around the exact question you are frustrated we won’t answer.

Yes or no? If you can’t give that answer, just ignore this post and don’t respond with your books.

 

I'm not the one saying "it will be worth it".

Ask the People that want to guarantee Championships by going through this process that question.

 

Would I guarantee a Championship?  No.

Does it give you some reasonable opportunity to compete for a Championship? Yes.



#49 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,663 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 05 January 2020 - 05:58 PM

Who has said going through this guarantees you a championship?

Your strawman arguments are so awful.
@BSLRobShields

#50 BSLSteveBirrer

BSLSteveBirrer

    Soccer Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,148 posts
  • LocationMS and ID

Posted 05 January 2020 - 05:59 PM

Well Rob he ALMOST gave a one word answer.....LOL


  • BSLRobShields likes this

#51 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 117,715 posts

Posted 05 January 2020 - 06:09 PM

I'm not the one saying "it will be worth it".

Ask the People that want to guarantee Championships by going through this process that question.

 

Would I guarantee a Championship?  No.

Does it give you some reasonable opportunity to compete for a Championship? Yes.


I haven't guaranteed a championship. 

I do feel good about the O's being able to be .500 in '21*, a WC contender in '22, and a WS contender in '23. 

 

*Admittedly I'd feel better if they'd showed any inclination to want to be better in '20.

Me feeling 'good', isn't much different than what you feel about creating 'reasonable opportunities.' 

 

Your plan would improve the roster today. 

I think what Elias is doing will give the O's a chance at a longer window, and an increased opportunity of building towards being elite... vs. the teams I think you generally suggest... whose ceilings imo are 'okay.' 



#52 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,940 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 05 January 2020 - 06:54 PM

I haven't guaranteed a championship. 

 

Then what does Elias (and there's a number of others that espouse this) mean by "it will be worth it".

 

We had the most wins in the AL from 2012-2016 and had a poor (bottom 10) minor league system coming out of the last rebuild (2008-2011), a highly criticized player development system, a poor scouting record, limited investments in infrastructure and a 'value management' only strategy for player acquisition.

 

Would the results of the 2012-2016 run 'be worth it' from 2024-2028 as a product of rebuilding?



#53 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 117,715 posts

Posted 05 January 2020 - 07:00 PM

Then what does Elias (and there's a number of others that espouse this) mean by "it will be worth it".

 

We had the most wins in the AL from 2012-2016 and had a poor (bottom 10) minor league system coming out of the last rebuild (2008-2011), a highly criticized player development system, a poor scouting record, limited investments in infrastructure and a 'value management' only strategy for player acquisition.

 

Would the results of the 2012-2016 run 'be worth it' from 2024-2028 as a product of rebuilding?

 

He means the obvious...  what he's doing now, he believes is going to 1) Increase the chances he can build an elite team, and 2) Sustain it. 

 

Your next point is irrelevant.  There are multiple ways to build teams and opportunities. 

 

The 2012-16 run worked.  It would have worked better if those organizational elements were in-place. 

Regardless, Elias is building the organization in the fashion he wants.
And for him, the O's being horrible in '19, and '20, doesn't matter if he builds a championship caliber core he can sustain. 



#54 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    BSL Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,663 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 06 January 2020 - 07:38 AM

If they trade Mancini, I do hope IF talent coming back is involved in the deal.

Obviously you take the best available package but if it can be focused on IF talent, that would be preferred.
@BSLRobShields

#55 Mike B

Mike B

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 17,083 posts
  • LocationTowson Md.

Posted 06 January 2020 - 03:14 PM

Jose Iglesias to the Orioles for 3 M.


@mikeghg

#56 Mike B

Mike B

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 17,083 posts
  • LocationTowson Md.

Posted 06 January 2020 - 03:15 PM

Turns out his locker room attitude was not that bad.  He IMO, is a plus defensive shortstop, which I think is important.


@mikeghg




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users

Partners